Broncos vs Raiders Predictions Week 16 | NFL Pick of the Day

Heading into this game, both the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are 7-7 and just a game back of the Los Angeles Chargers.

With the Chargers playing the Houston Texans this week, assuming that is a win for them, this game could be the end of one of these teams’ seasons.

Keeping that in mind, let’s explore this matchup and how to best assess it from a betting perspective.

Please note that all NFL Week 16 odds and lines are current as of 2:00 P.M. EST on Thursday, December 23.

Richard’s Prediction Picks Record: 10-13 (-0.35 units)

Broncos vs Raiders Prediction

The leading development heading into this game is that the Broncos will be starting Drew Lock under center in replacement of Teddy Bridgewater, who was recently released from the hospital after suffering his second concussion in three months.

In relief of Bridgewater in Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Lock completed 50 percent of his passes (6/12) for 88 yards and one touchdown pass.

The Broncos went on to lose 15-10 but managed to keep the game close thanks to their talented defense.


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The Raiders on the other hand did win in Week 15 in their delayed matchup with the Cleveland Browns, but beating them 16-14 with the Browns starting Nick Mullens, their third-string quarterback, is not nearly as impressive.

In addition to Lock starting, running back Melvin Gordon is dealing with thumb and hip injuries but is managing to play through it.

These two teams met earlier this season with the Raiders taking down the Broncos 34-24, but things have changed since then. The Raiders are no longer coached by Jon Gruden and receiver Henry Ruggs III is no longer on the roster.

Even with Lock under center, this game could be plenty closer than we think on the day after Christmas.

Prediction: Raiders 17, Broncos 14


Broncos vs Raiders Best Bets

Best Bet: Raiders Moneyline (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

Every part of me wants to find a way to take the Broncos here, but quite frankly, Lock is just too much of a deterrent to this team. He gets a fairly good matchup against the Raiders defense that has been obliterated more times than not this season, but I’m not confident he can do enough through the air to take advantage.

From there, we turn to the ground game, which is exceptional, headlined by a two-headed attack from Gordon and Javonte Williams.

While they’ll do all they can to keep this offense alive, Lock is just not capable of putting points on the board.

The Broncos have a stellar defense, but the Raiders throw a ton, nearly two-thirds of their offensive plays are pass plays, and they’ll eventually get something to click.

Despite everything happening with the Raiders this season, we should not overlook how well quarterback Derek Carr has played this season. Carr ranks 10th in passing grade, according to Pro Football Focus, when looking at quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 dropbacks.

It is unknown whether tight end Darren Waller will be back in this game, but wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, whose role has increased since Ruggs was arrested, gets a winnable matchup against Broncos cornerback Bryce Callahan.

If Waller returns that only helps, but even without him, the Raiders pass-happy approach and the lack of production from Lock will lead to a small Raiders victory.

moneyline

-110

Raiders to Defeat Broncos

DEN @ LV | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Best Bet: Under 41.5 Total Points (-108) at TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

With a total this low, it’s always nerve-wracking to take the under, but all the elements are here to support taking the under.

On the Broncos side, you have an offense that is going to be run-heavy and drain the clock, while the quarterback is going to stall more drives than progress them.

For the Raiders, they do take on a stout Broncos defense which is not going to make life easy, especially when the gameplan is known. The Raiders are going to pass.

With a combination of the Raiders being able to eventually hit something on offense, though few and far between, and the Broncos offense unable to score due to draining the clock with the running game and a quarterback with less-than-stellar statistics, this has all the makings for an under.

over-under

-108

Broncos @ Raiders: UNDER 41.5 Total Points

DEN @ LV | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $39

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 Broncos vs Raiders Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 16 Best Bets.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page