Eagles vs Washington Predictions Week 17 | NFL Pick of the Day

While Dallas has basically wrapped up the NFC East, these inter-divisional games are still interesting.

Philadelphia currently sits in the 7-seed in the NFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, Washington is two games back of that at 6-9, but could potentially sneak in the playoffs by running the table in the last two weeks.

While the Eagles have been on a tear – winning three of their last four – the Football Team has dropped three straight games. If Washington drops this one, it may be curtains for the 2021 Football Team.

WFT is catching three points at FedEx Field Sunday. That’s a fairly sharp line, and perhaps one worth playing, even if the Football Team is just 5-10 against the spread this season.

All NFL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, December 30.

Eagles vs Football Team Prediction

The Eagles have finally found an offensive identity.

The Eagles run more than any team in the NFL (51.2%). Between the threat of Jalen Hurts running the ball and an offensive line that’s third in Line Yards, the unit has found success. The Eagles are all the way up to seventh in Football Outsiders’ offense DVOA ratings, including third in their rush offense DVOA rankings.

But in terms of pure volume, nobody has rushed for more yards this season than Philadelphia (2,448). But the Eagles are doing it efficiently, leading the NFL in rush Success Rate and averaging 5.1 yards per carry.


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However, this identity plays right into the Football Team’s hands. Washington is a disaster in the secondary but decent in the front seven. Washington is eighth in total rush defense, 11th in rush defense DVOA, and sixth in PFF’s rush defense grades.

If you want to beat Washington, you have to exploit them in the passing game, where the Football Team is 30th in passing EPA per play allowed. I’m not sure Hurts and the Eagles can do that.

Unfortunately, the Washington offense can’t take advantage of anyone. The injury to Antonio Gibson has crippled this attack, and Washington has failed to score more than 20 points in five straight games.

This is setting up to be a Rock Fight. Who wins is anybody’s guess.

Prediction: Eagles 20, Football Team 14


Eagles vs Football Team Best Bets

Best Bet: Eagles -3 (-125) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

If I had to make a play on the side here, it would be with the Eagles.

There’s just too much market evidence for Philadelphia. The Eagles are getting the smart money here, as Philadelphia is seeing 78 percent of dollars with just 63 percent of the tickets as of Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are a remarkable 6-1 ATS when favored this season, whereas Washington is just 4-8 ATS as an underdog.

I’ll be keeping this play small, but give me the Eagles to somehow get across this number in our NFL pick of the day series.

spread

-125

Eagles Cover -3 Spread @ Washington

PHI @ WAS | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $36

Best Bet: Under 45 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

As mentioned above, neither offense can take advantage of the opposing defenses. This is setting up to be a grinder.

But late-season divisional games are always grinders. Since 2004, divisional Unders in Week 11 or later are 226-144-5, hitting at a 61% clip. That’s good for a 19% ROI during that time.

I also think this line is slightly high. While two of the last three matchups between Philadelphia and Washington have gone over the posted total, all three have stayed under 45 points.

I don’t see this game being played in the high 40s or 50s.

over-under

-110

Eagles @ Washington: UNDER 46 Points

PHI @ WAS | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Tanner McGrath’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 18-18, -1.00 Units

Thank you for reading our NFL Week 17 Eagles vs Football Team Predictions! For more betting options check out our NFL Week 17 Best Bets.

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NFL Betting News

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    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

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  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

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