The 9-4 New England Patriots and 7-6 Indianapolis Colts were both off with a bye in Week 14, giving them extra time to prepare for this Saturday night’s AFC showdown in Indy.
While Mac Jones vs Carson Wentz doesn’t have the same panache as Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning, these two rivals are once again in the playoff hunt after reinventing themselves as power-run teams with great defenses.
Which one will prevail in Week 15? Let’s break down our Patriots vs Colts predictions and best bets.
Please note that all NFL Week 15 odds and lines are current as of 12 PM EST on Friday, December 17.
Patriots vs Colts Prediction
As mentioned, both teams should be well-rested and well-prepared for this critical matchup after last week’s bye.
The bye was especially well-timed for New England, who lost Damien Harris to a hamstring injury against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Harris will not return in time for this one, so Rhamondre Stevenson will lead the Patriots’ backfield once again. In the last game that Harris missed, Stevenson had 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
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Both teams were on fire prior to their byes, with Indy winning six of eight and New England winning seven straight. But will the time off halt their momentum?
While the Colts have the benefit of home-field advantage, they’re only 3-4 at home this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots are a perfect 6-0 on the road.
Look for New England to stay that way.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 17
Patriots vs Colts Best Bets
Best Bet: Patriots Moneyline (+115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The marquee matchup to watch in this game is Jonathan Taylor versus New England’s defense. With Derrick Henry sidelined, Taylor has taken over as the clear top running back in the NFL and launched himself into the MVP conversation.
Can the Pats slow down Taylor, who’s averaging over 100 rushing yards per game and leads the league with 18 non-passing touchdowns? New England’s been middle-of-the-pack in terms of rushing yards allowed but has ceded just six rushing touchdowns all season — the fewest in the NFL.
- Read our best Patriots vs Colts Prop Bets
It’s no secret that Bill Belichick goes into games trying to shut down the opposing team’s best skill player. In this case, it’s unquestionably Taylor. If New England can hold him relatively in check and/or keep him out of the end zone for the first time since Week 3, they could reel off another victory.
Take the Pats at plus odds on our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Both of these teams have good defenses. The Colts rank ninth with 21.8 points per game allowed, while the Pats are yielding the fewest points per game in the NFL at 15.4.
Part of the reason why these two defenses allow so few points is because their offenses control the game on the ground. Indy has the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league while New England ranks seventh.
With the expectation of a run-heavy game here in which the Patriots also prevent Taylor from scoring, I’ll roll with the Under for our NFL bet of the day.
Mike Barner’s season record: 16-24-1 (-10.34 units)
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 15 Patriots vs Colts Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 15 Best Bets.