NFL Week 12 kicks off with three games on Thanksgiving, which means we have plenty of NFL player props to sort through. As always, I’ll try to identify props where I think the totals are either too high or too low based on recent trends, so let’s dive in and see what kind of value we can find with our best NFL Week 12 player props.
All NFL Week 12 odds and lines are current as of Wednesday, November 24 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Player Props
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Andy Dalton: Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I’ll never trust the Red Rifle, but Andy Dalton is in a nice spot against a Detroit Lions defense that is giving up an average of 248.9 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. While Dalton has yet to hit this yardage total on the year, he’s also yet to play two full games in a row and has topped 200 passing yards in two of his four appearances.
I’m dropping my confidence to a half-unit here, but I still think Dalton should be able to take advantage of a relatively low total against a porous defense.
Darnell Mooney: Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
With Allen Robinson banged up, someone has to catch Dalton’s passes. Enter Darnell Mooney.
Mooney is coming off a 16-target game last week in which he put up 121 receiving yards. I don’t expect his totals to be that high this week, but he’s topped 60 receiving yards in two of his past three games so his arrow is pointing up.
Against Detroit’s generous pass defense, Mooney should be able to do some damage this week.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott: Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Ezekiel Elliott has fallen below 60 rushing yards in four straight games, but Dak Prescott missed one of those contests and two others were blowout losses. Without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, the Dallas Cowboys are playing with a depleted receiving corps and will need to lean more on their ground game as a result.
The Las Vegas Raiders are also allowing 104.1 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs — 7th-most in the NFL. Elliott should be able to bounce back here and take advantage of this juicy matchup in our NFL bet of the day.
Derek Carr: Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
This one is likely to be close, as Dallas gives up 269.1 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Although his play has suffered a bit in recent weeks, Derek Carr is still averaging 304.1 passing yards per game this year.
While Carr is always a risky proposition, he’s likely to be playing from behind in this one based on our NFL gameday odds so the game script should be in our favor.
Can Derek Carr bounce back from his recent slump with a big game against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
Cole Beasley: Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
The New Orleans Saints have a really good run defense, so we’re likely to see Josh Allen throw the ball quite a bit this week. What’s more, New Orleans has allowed opposing receivers to put up 181 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
Cole Beasley has just 71 receiving yards over his past three games combined, but he’s always a threat to pop and appears healthier after dealing with injuries over the past several weeks.
I don’t love this total, but I think it’s low enough for us to take a chance on Beasley rebounding this week.
Emmanuel Sanders: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
Most of what I just said about Beasley rings true for Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders hasn’t topped this total in back-to-back games, but he’ll also benefit from the matchup as well as increased passing volume for Allen.
I don’t love this total either, but I think it’s relatively low enough to be interesting.
Check out more of our NFL Thanksgiving Betting Tips:
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Tre’Quan Smith Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The Bills are very good at stopping opposing receivers, but Tre’Quan Smith has slowly taken over as Trevor Siemian‘s top wideout in New Orleans. Smith has seen 15 targets over his last two games combined and has tallied 40+ receiving yards in three straight games now.
With Adam Trautman (knee) placed on IR, Smith should command even more looks from Siemian. This should be a safe play this week, especially with the Saints likely playing from behind.
Best Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The Bears are a bottom-10 team in terms of yardage allowed to opposing receivers, and I like Amon-Ra St. Brown to take advantage of that this week. He’s averaged 6.3 targets over his last six games, eclipsing 45 receiving yards in four of those contests.
I wouldn’t like this play if the total was five or 10 yards higher, but St. Brown should be able to top 30 receiving yards against Chicago’s soft pass defense on Thanksgiving.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 30-37, -7.5 Units
