We hit another parlay in Week 11, making it the second consecutive week with a big win. This time, the Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, and Cincinnati Bengals each covered the spread to give us a +612 win. Last week, we hit a +596 payout.
This was huge because it put us out of the red and into the green. Despite a poor overall record (4-29), we are now +0.29 units for the season. You need to embrace variance when parlay betting. All you need is a couple of big hits in order to be profitable over the long term.
It’s been an incredible bounce back in the last two weeks. Let’s try to keep it rolling on Thanksgiving Day!
Please note that all odds are from Caesars Sportsbook, current as of Monday, November 22, at 2 p.m. ET.
Best Thanksgiving NFL Parlay Week 12
NFL Week 12 Top Parlay Pick
Wager: 2 Units To Win 11.92 Units (+596) at Caesars
- Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions Under 41.5 Points (-110)
- Las Vegas Raiders +7 (-110) @ Dallas Cowboys
- New Orleans Saints +4 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears/Detroit Lions Under 41.5 Points
The Under is 7-3 in Bears games this season. Chicago games have combined for fewer than 41.5 points in 7 of 10 games this season. Lions games have been low-scoring, as well, as the Under is also 7-3, with the combined score failing to eclipse 41 points in five games this season.
Lions’ backup quarterback Tim Boyle was only able to throw for 77 yards at 3.3 yards per attempt against the Ravens on Sunday. It’s unclear if Jared Goff will return this week, but it seems unlikely given the short week.
Detroit has handed over play-calling duties to head coach Dan Campbell. He’s called 62 rushing plays compared to only 48 passes in two games as play-caller. This run-heavy approach bodes well for the Under.
There’s a good chance that veteran Andy Dalton will start this game over Justin Fields, who is currently nursing a rib injury. Dalton should be able to move the ball against this porous Lions’ defense, but I don’t think it will be enough to push this total Over the number.
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Las Vegas Raiders +7 (-110) @ Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders are reeling right now, losing three straight games to put their record at 5-5. They have a tough matchup against the Cowboys, who have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
The problem for Dallas is that their offense is depleted right now. Star wideouts Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have already been ruled out for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has a chance to play, but this is still an offense at less than full strength.
We saw how Dak Prescott struggled against the Chiefs without Lamb and Cooper. This makes it difficult to expect them to cover the seven points.
The Raiders are desperate for a win and should be able to keep this game close. This team wasn’t as good as their 5-2 record, but they are not as bad as they’ve looked during this three-game losing streak.
Look for a better effort from Las Vegas on Thanksgiving.
- See our full NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks.
New Orleans Saints +4 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills
You might look at this spread in shock, wondering why the Bills are such low road favorites against a Saints team that has lost three consecutive games.
The reason is simple: this Bills offense isn’t the same without right tackle Spencer Brown. In seven games with Brown, Josh Allen has a 66% completion rate at 8.1 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. In three games without Brown, Allen has a 65% completion rate at 5.8 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Brown is currently on the COVID reserve list, so his status for this game is unclear. I don’t expect him to play due to the short layoff between games.
The Saints are desperate right now. I expect them to keep this one close in a home primetime game.
Check out more of our NFL Thanksgiving Betting Tips:
NFL Thanksgiving Longshot Parlay Prediction
Wager: 1 Unit To Win 8.9 Units (+890) at Caesars
- Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (+260)
- New Orleans Saints Moneyline (+175)
Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (+260) @ Dallas Cowboys
It’s hard to pass up this value on the Raiders against such a depleted Cowboys offense. Dak Prescott was only able to put up 210 yards at 5.0 yards per attempt with two interceptions against the Chiefs this past week. We could see another run-heavy approach from the Cowboys here.
We have also seen some crazy finishes with NFC vs AFC games this season, including a blowout road win for the Broncos against these Cowboys.
I’ll take a shot with the Raiders on the moneyline.
New Orleans Saints Moneyline (+175) vs. Buffalo Bills
I really think that this Saints defense will be swarming against the Bills in the primetime game on Thanksgiving. We have seen this team knock off contenders earlier this season, as they were able to beat the Patriots and Buccaneers.
The Bills have been a volatile team of late, with an upset road loss to the Jaguars and blowout home loss to the Colts. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them drop another game, this time against an NFC opponent.
Give me the Saints as an upset pick.
Same Game Parlay Ticket for 2021 NFL Thanksgiving
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Wager: 1 Unit To Win 3.87 Units (+387) at Caesars
- Detroit Lions Moneyline (+155)
- Total Points Under 41.5 (-110)
As bad as the Lions have been this season, there’s really no reason for the Bears to be laying more than a field goal on the road in Detroit on Thanksgiving.
We’ve also seen the Lions play close games coming out of their bye, tying on the road against the Steelers and only losing by three against the Browns.
This looks like a close, low-scoring game with the Lions having every chance to win, even if Boyle starts once again. Look for another run-heavy game script from Detroit.
Frank Ammirante’s 2021 NFL Parlay Betting Record: 4-29, +0.29 Units
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 12 Parlays Picks & Predictions! For more NFL Week 12 betting tips, check out our NFL Week 12 Best Bets.
