Washington’s Week 4 win against the Falcons was highlighted by one of the more curious roughing the passer calls I’ve ever seen, but The Football Team was able to overcome it thanks to a furious fourth-quarter rally.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has arguably been the toughest team in the NFL to figure out, as it is now 2-0 straight up as an underdog, but 0-2 as a favorite.
Based on how these teams have played thus far, this might seem like an unpredictable NFC clash. But don’t you worry, I’ll provide a prediction for the game below along with some bets I like in this latest installment of the NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 8.
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Saints vs Washington Prediction
After snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in Atlanta, Washington returns home off of a huge, possibly momentum-building, road win. Meanwhile, the Saints are a team that has zig-zagged through four weeks like few others in recent memory.
It’s fair to be skeptical of both defenses — Washington’s secondary has been really disappointing and the Saints’ defense was just shredded by Daniel Jones of all people.
New Orleans has impressive wins over Green Bay and at New England, but were dismantled at Carolina and just lost at home to the previously winless Giants. The loss to the Giants was bad, as the Saints blew an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead in their first game back at the Superdome — yikes.
Prediction: Washington 23, Saints 20
Saints vs Washington Best Bets
Best Bet: Washington Moneyline (+115) at WynnBET
The public seems to be expecting the Saints to bounce back here following a bad loss, as the line has shifted towards New Orleans since opening, per our NFL gameday odds. It’s worth noting the Saints have some key pieces eligible to return from IR this week, including receiver Tre’Quan Smith and linebacker Kwon Alexander, though the team may play it safe and hold them out through next week’s bye.
On the other side, Washington lost some guys to injury during its Week 4 win, including tight end Logan Thomas and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff.
I expect both defenses to regroup and both coaches to ask their offenses to not lose the game. Underdogs have dominated the first few weeks of the NFL season, going 38-26 against the spread. This includes a whopping 27 outright wins. Ultimately, I can’t justify taking Jameis Winston as a road favorite.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
It’s a low total, but I still think this goes under. As I mentioned above, both defenses are coming off of subpar performances, with each allowing 27 or more points to their opponents last week. I think both coaches will preach defense ahead of this week’s matchup, and both units should respond and tighten up.
I’m also a little suspicious of both kickers after Washington’s Dustin Hopkins missed two extra points last week and Aldrick Rosas of the Saints, filling in for the injured Wil Lutz, was only 1-for-4 on field-goal attempts this year before being released on Tuesday. Later in the day, New Orleans announced it had brought in the oft-maligned Cody Parkey to kick this week. A timely missed field goal, perhaps a double-doink from Parkey, could be the difference here in this game sneaking under the total.