We finally hit a small parlay in Week 5, as the Los Angeles Chargers covered the spread on Monday Night Football and the game went under the total. We also were only one game off of our three-game and five-game parlays, but the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams let us down.
It was a positive week, though, so let’s keep it rolling in Week 5. The home run is coming soon. It’s important to be patient.
Let’s take a deeper dive to see what my favorite parlay bets are for Week 5 in the NFL pick of the day series!
Please note that all odds are current as of Tuesday, October 5.
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Best NFL Parlays Week 5
NFL Week 5 Parlay Picks
Wager: 1 unit to win 5.95 units
- Packers/Bengals Over 49 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Cincinnati Bengals)
- Lions/Vikings Over 49.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Minnesota Vikings)
- New York Giants +7 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Dallas Cowboys)
Packers/Bengals Over 49 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Cincinnati Bengals)
The Packers rank 10th in pass DVOA and the Bengals rank 14th. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow got on track last week, completing 25-of-32 passes for 348 yards (10.9 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. The Bengals will likely be without running back Joe Mixon, so we could see a pass-heavy approach.
Burrow will have to put up another strong performance to hang with Aaron Rodgers and this prolific Packers’ offense. This game looks like a shootout.
Lions/Vikings Over 49.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Minnesota Vikings)
The Vikings laid an egg in Week 4, but they had been playing in several shootouts prior to last week. Their first three games totaled 51, 67, and 47 points. We can expect Minnesota to bounce back against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in both pass DVOA and rush DVOA.
The Vikings defense isn’t much better, ranking 15th in pass DVOA and 23rd in rush DVOA. This game looks like a shootout with both offenses bouncing back from poor performances in Week 4.
New York Giants +7 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Dallas Cowboys)
The Giants went to New Orleans and upset the Saints as 8-point underdogs in Week 4. Prior to that game, they had lost by three points and one point in their previous two matchups. This team is better than its record.
Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career, averaging 296 yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. This spread is simply too high, especially in a divisional game like this one. Look for the Giants to keep it close with the chance to win outright.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones threw for a league-high 404 yards in Week 4. Can he continue his impressive start to the season when New York takes on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
NFL Week 5 Longshot Parlay Prediction
Wager: 0.5 units to win 12.17 units
- Packers/Bengals Over 49 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Cincinnati Bengals)
- Lions/Vikings Over 49.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Minnesota Vikings)
- New York Giants +7 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Dallas Cowboys)
- 49ers/Cardinals Over 50.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Arizona Cardinals)
- Chicago Bears +5.5 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Packers/Bengals Over 49 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Cincinnati Bengals)
I’m really confident that we’ll see a shootout in this game, especially with Bengals wideout Tee Higgins expected to return to the lineup. The Bengals will likely have to go pass-heavy, which aligns perfectly with the Over.
Lions/Vikings Over 49.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Minnesota Vikings)
The Lions have shown that they can keep games close this season, losing by only eight points to the 49ers and two points to the Ravens. Jared Goff has attempted 40.25 passes per game, which goes well with the Over, since we want to target games with pass-heavy game scripts.
New York Giants +7 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Dallas Cowboys)
I’ll add the last leg of my three-team parlay here because I’m super confident in the Giants keeping this one close. Daniel Jones is playing too well to pass up covering a touchdown in this divisional game. We have also seen running back Saquon Barkley and new wideout Kenny Golladay come alive lately. The Giants’ arrow is pointing up.
49ers/Cardinals Over 50.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM (at Arizona Cardinals)
Cardinals’ games have totaled 51, 67, 50, and 57 points this season. The 49ers have combined for 74, 28, 58, and 49 points. This Arizona offense has been among the best in football, as quarterback Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP level. The Cardinals rank 4th in pass DVOA and 9th in rush DVOA, demonstrating their proficiency on offense. This is one of the higher totals of the week, per our NFL gameday odds, but I’m still rolling with the Over in this spot.
Chicago Bears +5.5 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Las Vegas Raiders)
The Bears finally showed up in their 10-point win over the Lions last week, as rookie quarterback Justin Fields was able to make big plays downfield and running back David Montgomery got it done on the ground before leaving with an injury.
On the other side, the Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss on Monday Night Football against the rival Chargers. They now have one less day to prepare for an inter-conference game. The Raiders rank 22nd in total DVOA on offense and 15th on defense. They’re worse than their 3-1 record, so I’ll go with the Bears, regardless of who plays at quarterback.
Same Game Parlay Picks Week 5
Wager: 1 unit to win 2.72 units
- Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-105) Spread at BetMGM (at Kansas City Chiefs)
- Bills/Chiefs Under 56.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM
The Bills are playing phenomenal football right now, winning their last three games by 35, 22, and 40 points. Their defense has really taken it to the next level, ranking 1st in pass DVOA and 2nd in rush DVOA. They’re likely going to give quarterback Patrick Mahomes some problems in this matchup.
The Bills should be able to slow down the Chiefs’ offense to some extent, which makes it difficult to see this high total going Over the number. Buffalo’s defense is simply playing too well to lay such a huge number in this spot. Look for the Bills to keep it close and the game to go Under.
Frank Ammirante’s 2021 NFL Parlay Betting Record: 1-11, -6.36 units
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 5 Parlays Picks & Predictions! For more NFL Week 5 betting tips, check out our NFL Week 5 Best Bets!
