Through Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season, the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints have had very different starts.
Although the Giants have been competitive, they have consistently found ways to lose close games, falling to 0-3. The Saints have had two dominating wins, including a blowout of the Green Bay Packers, but they also suffered a crushing divisional loss to the Carolina Panthers.
While the Saints are heavy favorites to win, it’s worth wondering how this game shake out from an NFL betting perspective.
There are plenty of interesting matchups here, so let’s break it all down with our NFL Week 4 Giants vs Saints predictions and best bets in the NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all Giants vs Saints odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 1.
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Giants vs Saints Prediction
The Giants lost another close game inside two minutes last week. However, the loss on the scoreboard was not their biggest loss of the game.
Starting middle linebacker, Blake Martinez, was lost for the season to a torn ACL. The Giants also had wide receivers Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard leave with first-half hamstring injuries and never return.
This Giants team is not good enough to remain competitive after losing key starters. Yes, Saquon Barkley looked much better last week than the previous two games, but with the Saints’ run defense being strong (2.8 yards per rush allowed), the offensive success will depend on the arm of Daniel Jones, and he will be down two receivers.
The Saints, on the other hand, had a dominating win in New England. While the offense wasn’t explosive, it was efficient. They lacked the big spark they needed to really open things up, but that spark could be brought by the crowd on Sunday.
Finally, the Superdome will be packed again. This is a tough venue to play at normally, but it will be even more nuts following the hurricane and COVID season.
The loud crowd also makes this defense even stronger. The weak Giants offensive line will have issues hearing Jones’ cadence, leading to the Saints’ defensive front getting off the ball faster, allowing them to dominate at the point of attack all day long.
Prediction: Saints 27, Giants 14
Giants vs Saints Best Bets
Best Bet: Saints -7 (-110) at DraftKings
Wager: 1.0 Unit
As stated above, the crowd being back in the Superdome cannot be understated. The noise affects offensive linemen against their matchups more than any other position on the field.
With the Giants’ offensive line being so poor anyways, this advantage for New Orleans grows even more, which is reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
Defensively, the Giants have been solid, but losing Martinez is a massive blow. He is the glue guy in the middle, and it could mean serious issues for containing Alvin Kamara.
Best Bet: Giants 1st Half Under 7.5 Points (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1.0 Unit
The Saints have a tough defense, allowing only 7.7 first-half points per game. On the other side, the Giants are a bottom-five first-half offense, averaging only 7.7 points scored.
The offensive line for the Giants will get exposed, leading to Jones being under pressure early and often. We have seen how this typically leads to turnovers with him.
Even if he does get time to throw, the hamstring injuries to Shepard and Slayton are alarming, since Kenny Golladay hasn’t been especially impressive on the outside.
Giants vs Saints Same Game Parlay Pick
Same Game Parlay Odds: (+230) at BetMGM
- Saints -7.5
- Saints Lead at End of Each Quarter
Wager: 0.5 Unit
This is a custom parlay that allows us to bet the Saints to dominate this game without simply taking the game spread at (-110) odds.
Behind a loud, energetic crowd, look for the Saints to get off to a fast start on both sides of the football. A defensive score off a turnover is also in the cards early on, given the history of Jones, the state of the Giants offensive line and the possible lack of reliable receiving options.
All of this means utter domination from the first whistle to the last, making this our pick of the day.
Betting Record: 5-4 (+1.8 Units)