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This will undoubtedly be one of the most surreal Olympics ever. With an increasing amount of athletes testing positive for COVID-19, it will be a challenge to garner value with picks as unknown risks permeate the landscape.
On a day-to-day basis, odds and numbers will fluctuate even more than usual. The key will be trying to get ahead of everything as much as possible.
That said, there are always values and plus-money risks which can be taken, even at Tokyo in these Olympics. Let’s dig in.
Tokyo Olympics 2020 Predictions: Betting Picks & Prop Bets
Men’s Basketball
Australia Eliminated In Semifinals: (+160) at BetMGM
This is a safe number given Australia’s track record and decent FIBA ranking at third. The other idea is that Spain comes in overvalued at second.
Spain has been exposed in the exhibitions for being a bit slow — especially when it comes to interior play. Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol will be attacked heavily in this tournament. Australia just has an easier road than Spain and a slightly better number.
Nigeria To Win Gold: (+3000) at DraftKings
This will be the ultimate risk of the Olympics, so naturally we are starting off with a long shot. The one thing we’ve learned from the exhibition schedule is to expect the unexpected.
Mike Brown can coach and the Nigerians are athletic. That can give teams like Spain and the United States some issues.
In the knockout part of the tournament, playing Nigeria figures to be an exercise in frustration. They will be a team to watch and could shock many in taking home the gold in an increasingly weak tournament.
- Check out more of our Olympic Men’s Basketball odds, bet tips, and predictions.
Women’s Soccer
USA Over 2.5 Goals vs Sweden: (+180) at DraftKings
The American women can turn it on like few teams in the history of soccer, and drawing stiff opposition like Sweden right off the bat may be the best thing for them.
This is a risk, but the plus-money here is very enticing. Team USA is more than capable of scoring three goals in the first game, as they are one of the few teams that play a quick-strike offense.
USA To Win Gold: (-165) at DraftKings
Next to women’s basketball, the ladies’ soccer team may be the safest pick. Sweden is not quite as formidable as previous Olympics, and neither are the Netherlands nor Brazil.
This is a sport not to overthink. Japan might offer the most resistance with their playing style, but can they fight off transition and overcome the lack of a crowd? That seems like too much to ask — take the Americans.
Men’s Golf
Jon Rahm To Win Gold: (+400) at DraftKings
Rahm will play in the Olympics come hell or high water. He did test positive for COVID-19 in June during The Memorial while up by six strokes, but came right back to win the U.S. Open.
Rahm continued to flourish at the British Open last week, nabbing third place after a strong finish on Sunday that included four straight birdies at one point. If he can drop a few putts on this golf course early, then look out. Rahm is a safe bet to medal at a minimum.
Bryson DeChambeau To Win Gold: (+1200) at DraftKings
It is rare to see DeChambeau with these odds, but the British Open was not his best performance. Links golf never suited him, anyways.
This Japanese course comes in at over 7,400 yards and can be attacked a number of ways. When someone can drive the ball an average of over 320 yards like DeChambeau can that’s a big advantage. If DeChambeau can navigate the gargantuan par 5’s (all 586+ yards), he could have a leg up on the competition.
After winning the 2021 U.S. Open, Jon Rahm will aim for gold at the Tokyo Summer Olympics. (Image: USA TODAY)
Women’s Golf
Inbee Park To Win Gold: (+600) at DraftKings
The biggest asset for Park is the ability to win it again. Winning the gold at Rio was special, but the Olympics has a unique pressure that the South Korean golfer thrives on.
She may be a co-favorite this time around, but do not let that dissuade you too much. Park has a poker face that few can read. Furthermore, she has an ability to make clutch putts in majors that few golfers can match.
Her relaxed mental attitude is a huge asset and a big reason why she is our top pick.
Danielle Kang To Win Gold: (+1300) at DraftKings
Kang is a bit of a long shot but do not count her out, as she has won two overseas tournaments in the recent past (2018 and 2019 at Shanghai).
Kang compiled a 70.08 scoring average in 2020, which led the LPGA tour. Her consistency and ability to play around the green are her biggest assets. Her putting has been a bit inconsistent, but she ranks among the top five in birdies going into the Olympics.
It boils down to avoiding mistakes for Kang. If she can do that, she could medal and may even take home the gold for Team USA.
Men’s Swimming
Michael Andrew To Win Gold: (+100) at DraftKings
The one thing that may help Andrew is that Daiya Sato will not have a home crowd to feed off of, which can make a difference in the Olympics.
Andrew’s 1:55.26 swim in the U.S. Olympic Trials in June drew notice, as it was the fastest time this year. That does not bode well for Sato, hence why Andrew and his long wingspan is our pick.
Ryan Murphy To Win Gold: (+275) at DraftKings
The reigning 100-meter backstroke winner from the 2016 Rio games carries a long tradition of dominance for Americans at this event. A swimmer from the United States has won this event every time since the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta.
Murphy’s 52.22 time at the Olympic Trials was a quarter second off from his time at Rio, but he believes he’s finally in gold-medal form. He faces stiff competition, but his ability to swim right around 52-flat could be enough to win the gold.
Women’s Basketball
USA To Win Gold: (-1000) at BetMGM
This is the safest bet next to Katie Ledecky in her signature events at the Olympics. The American women are the true “Dream Team”. Some will doubt their standing a little after they dropped their first two exhibition games, but they rebounded with a big 31-point win over Nigeria.
With Sue Bird, Brittney Griner, Tina Charles, and Diana Taurasi headlining this team, there should be few worries. Team USA has more than enough depth to topple the competition and win gold yet again.
France To Medal: (+170) at BetMGM
The French could actually finish with the silver, but there is no prop for that so top-3 will have to do. Since ranking fifth in the FIBA world rankings in February, France has moved up and has the athleticism to play with the United States at times. France should at least be able to get past Spain and take bronze while Canada plays the United States.
Men’s Handball
Denmark To Win Gold: (+250) at DraftKings
Let’s close this out with one of the more fun sports in the Olympics. Not only is Denmark the reigning Olympic Men’s Handball champions from Rio, but they have also won the last two world championships as well.
Denmark is only a slight favorite over Norway (+275), but as we have seen in the last few matchups, it is Denmark’s special teams that have reigned supreme with timely goaltending. Accordingly, Denmark is our top pick.
Sweden To Win Gold: (+600) at DraftKings
Sweden is our longshot because they have shown a much better form over the past several months than they did before the pandemic. Before losing in the World Championship Finals, they outscored teams by 58 goals overall — an average of more than six goals per contest. Their gradual improvement and timing are their two biggest allies along with strong transitional play, which could put them over the top.
