Albert Nguyen, also known as the Analytics Capper, makes his writing debut for The Game Day with 2021 The Masters: Stats To Help Your Majors Betting Picks.
The greatest tournament in the game of golf is here. Due to the sheer magnitude of the event, golf bettors are a myriad of bets — straights, matchups, groups, six-shooters, futures, propositions, and live-action - when it comes to wagering on The 2021 Masters.
The way Augusta National is set up, especially with the par 5’s, I tend to focus on statistics such as driving distance, driving accuracy, strokes gained off-the-tee, and eagles per hole rate, but there’s more to handicapping golf than sheer numbers.
- Read Adam Kramer’s 2021 The Masters Bet Picks & Tips and see our full 2021 The Masters Betting Guide & Preview.
2021 The Masters: Stats To Use For Your Augusta National Bets
Too often novice golf bettors focus strictly on statistics and numbers, and fail to recognize the importance of course familiarity and the narrative aspect.
The 2021 Masters event will have only 88 players in the initial field, and the cut line will whittle that number down to 50 by Friday afternoon.
My advice is to identify 10 to 15 players to focus on throughout the week.
Base this on their recent form, their history at the Masters, and so forth. Because of the uniqueness of this course and this event, only certain types of players excel and finish high on the leaderboard. This is why you generally have the same players contend at certain courses, and consequently, you have the same players that don’t do well on other courses.
Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee
The players on tour that gained the most strokes with their tee shots are Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Viktor Hovland this PGA season, per PGA stats.
The combination of their accurate tee shots and the distance that they can hit the ball makes them prime candidates to conquer Augusta’s back 9.
You’ll hear people claim that the course is a “second-shot course." However, if you don’t drive the ball well here, you’ll be spending most of your time punching out of the woods and pine straws with your second shots anyways, limiting your scoring opportunities.
The top 5 players on tour in driving distance include Bryson DeChambeau, Wyndham Clark, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Champ, and Will Gordon. How far you hit doesn’t mean anything if you aren’t in the fairway. However, these guys are a good 1 to 2 clubs further than the field average, which will pay major dividends at Augusta National.
This is a super-secret metric (not anymore!) that I love leveraging in my golf bets.
The greens at Augusta are huge — however, that doesn’t necessarily mean you have a big target on your approach shots. The size of the putting surface may be big, but the undulations amplify missed shots even to a greater extent here compared to other tracks.
This potentially leads to very long putts that could break up to 3 or 4 different times. To win at the Masters, the flatstick doesn’t have to be a major weapon. but it cannot be a detriment. The emphasis on lag putting on greens that may reach 13 or 14 on the stimpmeter is paramount.
The top players on tour this season who have done the best job at avoiding 3-putts are Graeme McDowell, Mackenzie Hughes, Cameron Smith, Ben Martin, and Tyrrell Hatton.
My Picks For The 2021 Masters
If you look at these three statistics, I’m eyeing Bryson DeChambeau (11/1), Rory McIlroy (19/1), Patrick Cantlay (21/1), Viktor Hovland (35/1), Cameron Smith (35/1), and Tyrrell Hatton (50/1).
With that being said, I am a numbers guy at my core (hence the moniker). I look at a 4-round tournament like a mathematical equation with hundreds of x and y variables.
In other words, I’m always adding on positions so that the entire collection of bets throughout the tournament guarantees me a profit at the end of the week. This means my ceiling may not be as high as someone throwing $10,000 on a single player to win at +4000 odds, but it also means my floor is much safer and I’m essentially betting with “house” money by the fourth round.
I call it organic hedging, and I rarely press or stack any of my golf bets.
- Rory McIlroy to win (19 to 1)
- Patrick Cantlay to win (21 to 1)
- Tyrrell Hatton To Finish Top 20 (+175)
- Jason Day To Finish Top 20 (+140)
- Matt Kuchar To Finish Top 40 (-150)
I hope everyone the best of luck this week, but most importantly, to enjoy the event and the fact that we’re all able to watch golf again!
When you’re done reading ‘2021 The Masters: Stats To Use For Your Augusta National Bets,’ check out our full 2021 The Masters Betting Guide.