Here’s Adam Kramer’s PGA betting report on “The Masters 2021 Bet Picks: Who Will Win At Augusta?"
Read our full preview guide to The Masters 2021 Tournament, including schedule, betting odds for the favorites, more bet tips and DFS picks (coming soon).
“Hello, friends." There is no other way to begin a piece of Masters content. It is, of course, the gospel of Augusta—Jim Nantz’s soothing anthem each spring.
We were deprived of said anthem last spring thanks to COVID, although the Masters ultimately took place in the fall—clashing with football and real estate it doesn’t normally assume.
This year, it returns with vengeance in its normal place. The Masters field, even without Tiger Woods, is loaded with youth, course marksmen, intriguing favorites and a growing list of capable winners.
From a betting standpoint, there are options. And as we lead into this much-anticipated week, we do so with an eye on the chalk, some noteworthy underdogs and my official picks for the event.
The Masters 2021 Bet Picks
Notable Favorites Managing Notable Circumstances
Brooks Koepka (+2800)
The good? Brooks Koepka is a majors machine. It doesn’t matter the course or the layout, Koepka has won four majors, been a runner-up a handful of times and found the Top 10 a handful more. He also finished seventh at Augusta in 2020 and second in 2019.
The bad? He had knee surgery less than a month ago. “It’s been seven-plus hours every day in rehab,” Koepka says on what recovery has looked like, which seems less than ideal. If Koepka is healthy-ish, 28/1 will feel like a steal. But, while dangerous and difficult to play doctor, it’s hard to envision that the impact of this procedure won’t linger. One to watch leading into Thursday.
Jon Rahm (+1150)
Like Koepka, Jon Rahm’s status for The Masters for iffy heading into this week. Not because of injury, but because he and his wife were expecting their first child.
That child has arrived, which means Rahm is likely to check in for a tournament in which he has flashed of late. The 26-year-old has carded three Top-10 finishes in his four appearances at Augusta, which is likely a sign of more success in the future.
But a whirlwind week will undoubtedly be an interesting component.
As a father of three, I know what those days post-baby arrival looks like. They feature roughly 300 cups of coffee and constant brain fog. Even with that, Rahm playing loose and excelling seems possible.
Jordan Spieth (+1150)
At the time of writing this, Jordan Spieth is currently tied for the second choice when it comes to Masters odds, behind only defending champion Dustin Johnson. To the uninformed, that might seem like a reach.
But consider how Spieth’s 2021 season has gone — coupled with a fantastic resume at Augusta — and it starts to take shape. Spieth just notched his first win in 82 events at the Valero Texas Open, elevating a trend of positive finishes this year. He has been in contention for much of the calendar, but Sunday provided the breakthrough he has been seeking.
As for The Masters, well, he has been brilliant. He’s won here before and twice finished second, using his tremendous iron play to do much of the heavy lifting. The betting value that was once there months ago is long gone, although the player we have been looking for has returned.
2021 The Masters Long-Shot Bets
Allow me to preface this section with some background. While these aren’t “official” picks, they are leans on players with long odds capable of making a run. If you are in search of value, look no further.
Billy Horschel (+9000)
Unfortunately for Billy Horschel, The Masters is not match play. This year’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play winner comes into the tournament having conquered a week full of tour pros.
While this will be a much different beast, it’s rare to get a hot hand at 90/1. Horschel’s success in Major tournaments is limited—his best finish at Augusta came in 2016 when he finished seventeenth—but he’s worth a flyer at this price.
Justin Rose (+10000)
His 2021 season has been limited. An iffy back forced him to withdraw at The Players, and he hasn’t been active otherwise.
Assuming he is healthy—and that appears to be the case—Rose is one of the best golfers on the planet. He’s been a runner-up twice at the Masters, won a US Open, and been a fixture at Majors for some time. While you’ll have to cross your fingers that his back holds up, 100/1 is hard to pass up.
Matthew Wolff (+10000)
Depending on where you shop, these odds might vary. Even still, the man with the infamous golf swing comes at an intriguing price. It’s been a sporadic start to the year for the 21-year-old who missed the cut at the Masters in 2020, but he has the distance and the game to factor if he can get right this week.
Dylan Frittelli (+17500)
The South African showed at last year’s Masters he has plenty of game—posting an overall score of 11-under back in November. He finished fifth overall, which is pretty fascinating given his odds. The concern? He’s been largely erratic this year as he looks to add more swing speed and distance to his game. If it finally aligns, it could result in a big score.
My Betting Picks For The 2021 Masters
Collin Morikawa To Win 2021 Masters (+3300) on PointsBet
While distance is vital at the course, quality iron play is also a significant piece of solving this golfing puzzle. Collin Morikawa certainly has that, and he’s also proven himself in majors at a young age. He struggled at Augusta in the fall, although I expect to see a significant improvement this time around.
My concern isn’t distance off the tee, but whether his putting can hold up. If it can, it wouldn’t shock me to see him in full control of his game and the course.
Tony Finau To Finish Top 5 (+575) on PointsBet
I get it. He can’t win. You know it. I know it. And at some point, we will finally be able to remove this disclaimer from Tony Finau’s impressive golfing resume. But even with his struggles to seal the deal, Finau has a top-five finish in all five Majors. He has the game to compete in any event he plays in, and 6/1 feels like solid value for him to do what he has always done—compete at the highest level of golf. Even if he comes up just short, you can cash.
Justin Thomas To Win (+1200) at DraftKings
He has every trait one needs to win at this course. He can bomb the driver, he has great iron play and a putter that knows how to get hot. He has never won at Augusta, but he finished fourth in 2020 and has skills that should play just about anywhere.
While I don’t normally side with chalk at this venue, Thomas is a proven chalk no matter when he tees up. His emphatic victory at The Players was more of a next chapter than it was a surprise. So much game. I feel good anytime I bet him.
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