UFC 323 Predictions | Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Fight Picks

UFC 323 will take place on Saturday, Dec. 6, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. The main event will see Merab Dvalishvili try to defend his bantamweight title against Petr Yan, a rematch from 2023.

In addition to this title bout, the Flyweight title is on the line as titleholder Alexandre Pantoja takes on Joshua Van.

Let’s break down the UFC 323 card and my UFC fight predictions for Saturday night’s showcase.

UFC betting lines used for these predictions are current as of Friday, Dec. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

UFC 323 Main Event Odds

To Win: Merab Dvalishvili (-410) • Petr Yan (+320)

This is the second installment of Dvalishvili vs. Yan, a rematch from their March 2023 showdown.

In that fight, Dvalishvili simply dominated, with all three judges scoring the fight 50-45. Dvalishvili attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns, a mark previously held by Cain Velasquez in 2012.

Since then, Dvalishvili has taken on Henry Cejudo, Sean O’Malley (twice), Umar Nurmagomedov (again), and Cory Sandhagen and beaten all of them.

Considering his recent form in addition to his dominance over Yan in 2023, it’s no surprise he’s a massive -410 favorite.

UFC 323 Card & Schedule

UFC 323 will feature 14 fights in all.

The early prelims are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, the prelims will start at 8 p.m., and the main card kicks off at 10 p.m.

Below is a list of the full UFC 323 fight card:

UFC 323 Main Event Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili defeats Petr Yan by Decision (-225)

Dvalishvili has a knack for taking fights the distance, including against Yan in 2023.

Since then, he’s gone the distance and won four out of five fights.

He’ll continue to do what he does best: control the pacing of the fight and go for a plethora of takedowns.

Take this method-of-victory prop as one of your best UFC bets today.

UFC 323 Undercard Best Bets

Joshua Van Defeats Alexandre Pantoja by TKO/KO/DQ (+550)

I’m going with a bit of an upset here, but at 15-2, Van has won seven fights via knockout, and this is one of those fights where I could see him clipping Pantoja.

Van averages 8.86 significant strikes landed per minute to Pantoja’s 4.36. Additionally, while Pantoja averages more takedown attempts per 15 minutes (2.8), Van is more accurate at 63% compared to Pantoja’s 47%.

This fight could go either way, but given the odds and Van’s KO prowess, I’ll take a chance at these +550 odds.

Jan Blachowicz Defeats Bogdan Guskov (-130)

Blachowicz is nearly 10 years Guskov’s senior, but with this being a three-round fight, I think the 42-year-old Blachowicz could push it the distance if needed.

Guskov gets the majority of his wins by knockout, but it’s extremely rare for Blachowicz to be knocked out. The last time he was knocked out was in February 2019.

I think Blachwicz will fend off his strikes and maybe bring him to the mat enough times to win rounds and walk away with a split decision win.

UFC 323 Prelims Best Bets

Maycee Barber Defeats Karine Silva (-198)

Heading into this fight, 42% of Silva’s 19 wins have come via submission, but I’m not sure she’s able to get Barber down, as Barber has a 53% takedown defense.

As for strikes, Barber lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute and is slightly better at defending against them than Silva.

When it’s all said and done, Barber wins via knockout.

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Grant Dawson Defeats Manuel Torres (-230)

Admittedly, this is one of the scarier fights to pick considering all of Torres’s fights except one have ended in the first round.

However, Dawson is someone who can tangle with Torres on the mat, as they’re both great grapplers.

My hunch is this is going to be a bit of a defensive battle; it goes three rounds, and Dawson comes away with a win via decision.