We’ll be in for a treat early Saturday morning as 21-year-old Qinwen Zheng looks to complete her rise to the top of the women’s game with her first career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.
It will be an uphill battle against defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, who enters as a deserving favorite after a dominant run in Melbourne that has seen her come through each match without dropping a set.
Australian Open Women’s Final Odds
- Qinwen Zheng (+425)
- Aryna Sabalenka (-600)
Tennis odds used for this Grand Slam report are current as of January 26 at 11:00 a.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Australian Open Women’s Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka in 3 Sets (+260)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Sabalenka is the better and more experienced player, and as a result, she should be able to negotiate this match against a tough opponent.
With that said, this one won’t be as straightforward as Sabalenka’s other outings in Melbourne.
Zheng presents a challenge that none of Sabalenka’s opponents have over the last two weeks, as she is a big server who can take time away from the 2023 champion from the back of the court.
Zheng hits a big and heavy forehand, which should lead to some tight opening exchanges before Sabalenka is ultimately able to claw her way back in and solve the problems posed by the Chinese No. 1.
Sabalenka, who has one of the best serves in the game, has held in a staggering 85.7% of her service games in the young season, but Zheng comes in with a career hold rate of 74.&% – and an even-better mark of 76.3% this season.
Zheng is also breaking in over 41% of her return games, so you can be sure a lot of pressure will be applied to Sabalenka.
The Belarusian has quieted many concerns over her mental fortitude in big matches thanks to her career-best 2023 season, which brought a first Grand Slam title as well as two other trophies, including one at a WTA 1000 event.
Still, we’ve seen that – even on paper – a mismatch for Sabalenka can quickly become complicated with the added pressure of a late-stage meeting at a Grand Slam, so this match should go deep before Sabalenka rises to the occasion with her all-world game.
Australian Open Women’s Final Best Bet
Qinwen Zheng +1.5 Sets (+125)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Of the four titles Sabalenka has won since February 2021, she’s only secured one in straight sets.
Last year’s U.S. Open final was a mismatch, but a hostile home crowd that was cheering for Coco Gauff got to Sabalenka from start and eventually led to her downfall. Even in last year’s Australian Open triumph, the World No. 2 needed to drag herself out of a 1-0 deficit to lift the trophy.
Zheng is simply not getting enough respect from oddsmakers. She is still quite raw as a tennis prospect, and her second serve has the tendency to abandon her over the course of a match, but she is one of the few women in the world who can hit through Sabalenka and make her a passenger in rallies.
With more big-match experience, she’d surely be given a better chance by the oddsmakers, but she will give her opponent a challenge before she ultimately succumbs to the best player in the world at the moment.
The price for Zheng to grab one of the opening two sets is not a fair one.
Australian Open Women’s Final Prop Bet
Qinwen Zheng Over 2.5 Breaks of Serve (+120)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Zheng is breaking in over 41% of her return games this season, and if not for the number of shaky service games she’s thrown in, a number like that would really show a lot more in her scorelines.
She’s done an excellent job of recovering breaks, like she did in the semifinals when she fell behind in the first set against Dayana Yastremska, and in a match that should be a long one, this number is too low.
Sabalenka has been broken five times over her last two matches, as she’s lost focus in her service games when holding a lead.
This prop is attainable in a two-set affair, so it’s a no-brainer.
