The Tampa Bay Lightning can punch their ticket to an eye-popping third straight Stanley Cup final with a win over the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference final on Saturday night at Amalie Arena.
The Lightning have won three straight games after trailing 2-0 in the series. Mikhail Sergachev had a goal and an assist and Ondrej Palat broke a 1-1 tie with just 1:50 in regulation, cashing in for moneyline bettors (-125) and puck-line bettors (+200) thanks to Brandon Hagel‘s empty-net goal.
Ryan Lindgren scored New York’s lone goal, and Igor Shesterkin made 24 saves.
Here’s a look at Game 6.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Friday, June 10 at 9 a.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 6 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-185) / Rangers (+150)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+150) / Rangers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+115) / Under 5.5 (-140)
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Rangers vs Lightning Game 6 Prediction
The Rangers are facing an uphill battle after dropping three straight, and scoring the first goal in two of their three losses.
The Lightning are 10-3 in closeout games over the past three seasons and a perfect 4-0 at Amalie Arena in that span. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy doesn’t even allow goals in closeout games with shutouts in each of those four home series-clinchers, including an extraordinary 49-save performance in Tampa Bay’s second-round clinching win against the Florida Panthers.
New York has been resilient all season. The Rangers are 5-0 when facing elimination in these playoffs and haven’t lost four in a row at any point this season.
But the toll of three grueling series, including a pair of seven-gamers before the conference final, is clearly affecting them. Centers Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil admirably battled through injuries, plus Lindgren has been in and out the whole playoffs, but New York seems to be running out of gas.
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In addition, Shesterkin must be feeling the weight of carrying New York to this point. He’s faced the most shots (689), made the most saves (640), and played the most games (19) of any goalie in the playoffs by a country mile.
This war of attrition comes on the heels of his otherworldly regular season where he faced 30.6 shots per game and led the NHL in goals-saved above average (44.83), which landed him as the Vezina Trophy favorite and a Hart Trophy finalist.
The Rangers are going to need their all-everything goalie to steal at least Game 6 in Tampa. I’m just not sure there’s enough gas in the tank for that to happen. Plus, can New York score enough even if he does?
Rangers vs Lightning Game 6 Pick
Lightning 3, Rangers 1
Rangers vs Lightning Game 6 Best Bets
Under 5.5 Goals (-140)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Under has been a lock since Vasilevskiy settled into the series after his uncharacteristically bad Game 1. The odds reflect this.
It’s still worth your wager, especially since the Rangers have had a really hard time scoring 5-on-5. New York has just two even-strength goals over the past 11 periods.
Lightning -1.5 Puck Line (+150)
Wager: 1 Unit
If the Lightning are ahead in the third period, expect Rangers coach Gerard Gallant to pull Shesterkin as early as possible to get an extra attacker on the ice. He pulled his goalie with 3:52 to go in regulation trailing by three in Game 4.
The Lightning hit the empty net in each of the past two games and should be able to do so at least once again in Game 6.
PREVIOUSLY: Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Predictions
The Eastern Conference final returns to Madison Square Garden deadlocked, and the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers will face off in the pivotal Game 5 on Thursday night in New York.
The home team is 4-0 in this series after Tampa Bay’s convincing 4-1 win in Game 4 that paid out for both under (-130) bettors as well as those who wagered on the Lightning puck line (+150). Ondrej Palat had one goal and two assists, and Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos scored again for Tampa Bay, which won for the second straight game.
Artemi Panarin scored New York’s lone goal, a third-period power-play marker. Goalie Igor Shesterkin had his worst game, save percentage-wise, in almost a month by surrendering three goals on 30 shots (.900).
Here’s a look at Game 5.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, June 8 at 9 a.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-130) / Rangers (+105)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+200) / Rangers +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+115) / Under 5.5 (-140)
Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Prediction
It would be easy to assume the two-time defending champion Lightning are back. After all, they outscored the Rangers 7-1 over 1.5 games in Tampa. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy looks invincible again, especially at 5-on-5 where he’s stopped 53 straight shots dating back to the third period of Game 2.
The injury bug also is starting to catch up with the Rangers. No. 2 center Ryan Strome missed Game 4 with an apparent lower-body injury, and No. 3 center Filip Chytil left Game 4 early with an upper-body injury. Each is considered a game-time decision.
Plus, New York coach Gerard Gallant is only really playing four defensemen: Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Ryan Lindgren, and Jacob Trouba. And the wear from consecutive seven-game series has to be starting to get to New York.
Lindgren is heroically battling through an assortment of injuries, averaging 21:20 in ice time in the series, but is clearly laboring. The Lightning’s fourth line, which scored the game’s first goal in Game 4, has been especially hard on the forecheck, wearing the Rangers down further.
New York has relied heavily on Shesterkin all regular season and postseason, and he’s answered the call, especially at home.
He’s an enormous reason why the Rangers are 8-1 at MSG in the playoffs with a .948 save percentage and playoff-leading 10.12 goals saved above average in his nine home games, according to Natural Stat Trick. Plus he hasn’t lost three straight games at any point this season.
Shesterkin is poised for a bounce-back game after a clunker in Game 4. But will it matter? I’m not sure.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Pick
Lightning 2, Rangers 1
Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Best Bets
Under 5.5 Goals (-140)
Wager: 1 Unit
The goalies in this series have been exceptional, and Shesterkin is due a resurgent effort. The pressure of pivotal playoff games usually leads to fewer goals, since teams are hellbent on not making the huge mistake that could decide both the game and the series.
Plus, with the Rangers potentially down a pair of all-important players, and Tampa Bay’s top-line center Brayden Point not likely to return anytime soon and these teams undoubtedly getting worn out, the under feels like a certainty.
Lightning Moneyline (-130)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Rangers are gassed. The Lightning, who had a nine-day break between their second-round sweep of the Florida Panthers and first conference-final game, look like they’re rounding into playoff form.
Two of the four games have finished 3-2, which is why the puck line isn’t a particularly good bet in Game 5, but if you’re OK with some just-OK odds on a Tampa Bay win, especially considering the looming prospect of overtime, this is a good bet.
PREVIOUSLY: Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Predictions
The New York Rangers can move within a win of the Stanley Cup final, or the Tampa Bay Lightning will even the Eastern Conference final in a pivotal Game 4 of the best-of-7 series Monday night.
The Lightning peppered Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin with 52 shots and overcame a two-goal, second-period deficit by scoring a pair of power-play goals and Ondrej Palat‘s game-winner with just 41.6 remaining in regulation.
Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy played his best game of the series, stopping 28 including 11 apiece in the first two periods.
The Rangers also struck for two goals with the man advantage. Mika Zibanejad stayed hot, scoring his 10th of the playoffs and third in as many games in the series, and Chris Kreider also scored his 10th of the postseason. Shesterkin was once again the story, making 49 saves and keeping his team afloat until Palat’s late winner.
Here’s a look at Game 4.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Monday, June 6 at 9 a.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-175) / Rangers (+145)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+150) / Rangers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+105) / Under 5.5 (-130)
Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Prediction
Game 4 has the potential to go one of two directions. The Rangers could take solace in the fact they were 20 minutes from putting the two-time defending champs on the ropes in a game the Lightning desperately needed to win, scoring early and often to take back home-ice advantage.
Or the Rangers realize they essentially let the opportunity to bury the Lightning slip through their fingers, and Tampa Bay continues to rise from the dead in these playoffs.
The Lightning cheated death in their seven-game, first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs where they rallied from a one-goal deficit in the third period in Game 6 before stealing Game 7 in Toronto.
They appeared to ward away the Grim Reaper again Sunday afternoon thanks to their opportunistic power play that was fueled by the usual suspects, Palat, Nikita Kucherov (1 goal, 2 assists), Victor Hedman (2 assists), and Steven Stamkos (1 goal, 1 assist), plus a resurgent game from Vasilevskiy.
We think the champs will take Game 4 handily and send the series back to New York even.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Pick
Lightning 4, Rangers 1
Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Best Bets
Lightning -1.5 Puck Line (+150)
WAGER: 1 Unit
I completely understand if you’re feeling queasy about a puck-line bet in a series that the Rangers have mostly led. But we haven’t seen Tampa Bay’s best game yet, and we think it’s coming in Game 4.
Past performance does not dictate future outcomes, but the Rangers have a knack for making things as difficult as possible on themselves come playoff time. Plus, they’ll undoubtedly rue the opportunity to bury the two-time defending champs.
Under 5.5 Goals (-130)
WAGER: 1 Unit
After a pair of clunkers in New York, Vasilevskiy finally looked like the perennial Vezina finalist, especially early in Game 3. Sure, he allowed a couple of PPGs but held the Rangers to two goals and allowed his team to come back.
Shesterkin seems incapable of allowing more than three goals in a game — the 4-1 pick assumes an empty-netter — and if Vasilevskiy is going to play like that again the Under is as close to a lock as there is.
PREVIOUSLY: Rangers vs Lightning Game 3 Predictions
The New York Rangers can take a stranglehold on the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference final at Amalie Arena on Sunday afternoon.
New York won 3-2 in Game 2 for its eighth straight home playoff game, dating back to its three-overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 1 of the first round.
Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin (29 saves) remained hot and continued to outplay Tampa Bay netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Mika Zibanejad scored for the second straight game helping New York (+105 Moneyline) claim the minor upset win.
The Lightning, who have won each of the past two Stanley Cup championships, have not trailed 2-0 in a best-of-7 series since their first-round sweep to the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019.
Tampa Bay is 1-4 all-time when trailing 2-0 in a playoff series, with its only win coming against the Washington Capitals in the 2003 first round.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, June 4 at 1 p.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 3 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-175) / Rangers (+145)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+150) / Rangers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+100) / Under 5.5 (-120)
Rangers vs Lightning Game 3 Prediction
The Rangers are beginning to look like destiny’s darling with four straight wins over the powerful Carolina Hurricanes and the two-time defending champions. The New York fans are starting to believe, especially since the Rangers haven’t lost a series after taking a 2-0 lead since the 2009 first round against the Capitals.
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Still, the Lightning have proven this postseason that they’re going to go down quietly — even though fatigue has to be setting in after playoff runs that ended in Fall 2020 and Summer 2021. Tampa Bay is 3-1 after a loss in these playoffs, including its off-the-mat rally to force Game 7 in its first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Rangers were one of the best road teams in the league, with 25 victories away from MSG during the regular season, but are just 2-5 on the road in the playoffs. Tampa Bay has only lost once at home in the postseason and is riding a four-game win streak at Amalie Arena.
All that is to say I think Tampa Bay will find a way to make it a series by winning Game 3.
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 3 Pick
Lightning 3, Rangers 2
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 3 Best Bets
Under 5.5 Goals (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
After the Rangers broke out for six against Vasilevskiy in Game 1, the pace and goaltending play in Game 2 was more like we were preparing for — despite the three-goal first period.
The Lightning should be able to further dictate that pace at home where they will have the benefit of the last change.
PREVIOUSLY: Rangers vs Lightning Game 2 Predictions
The New York Rangers stayed hot offensively in Game 1 and will look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead on the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference final at Madison Square Garden on Friday.
The Rangers (+110 moneyline) rolled to a 6-2 win, winning their third straight game and seventh straight on home ice. New York has scored 17 goals in its past three games, with centers Filip Chytil (5 goals) and Mika Zibanejad (2 goals, 4 assists) and forward Chris Kreider (3 goals, 1 assist) carrying its offense during that span.
Tampa Bay had its six-game winning streak snapped and lost Game 1 on the road for the second time these playoffs. The Lightning are 3-0 in the postseason after a loss and have not lost consecutive playoff games dating back to 2019. Tampa Bay is 15-0 after a defeat over the past three postseasons.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, June 2 at 10 a.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 2 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-125) / Rangers (+105)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+200) / Rangers +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-105) / Under 5.5 (-115)
Rangers vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction
One streak is going to end on Friday. It’ll either be the Lightning’s lengthy post-loss win streak or the Rangers’ run on home ice.
Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (6 goals allowed on 34 shots) had his worst single-game save percentage (.824) since the Lightning’s most recent elimination defeat, Game 4 of the 2019 first round against the Columbus Blue Jackets where he posted an .818.
Still Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper could say it was a 2-2 game that got away from his team. Plus, Vasilevskiy had a rough Game 1 in the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs, allowing five goals on 32 shots in a 5-0 blowout loss before rebounding in Game 2.
If the Rangers go up 2-0, they could roll to the Cup final. I’m inclined to trust the champs to get off the mat and make this a series. Plus, the Rangers rode the crowd and momentum of playing two nights after their most recent series win in Game 1, but they have to be running low on gas after two straight seven-game series.
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 2 Pick
Lightning 3, Rangers 1
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 2 Best Bets
Lightning Moneyline (-125)
WAGER: 1 Unit
We typically don’t advocate betting odds that are (-130) or shorter, especially on a road team. However, in this case, (-125) is just good enough to be worthy of betting.
Under 5.5 Goals (-115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is supposed to be the goaltending series, with Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin playing as the two best netminders in the sport. Vasilevskiy let Under bettors down Wednesday while Shesterkin (37 saves on 39 shots) shined once again.
Vasilevskiy should rebound in Game 2, and Shesterkin should keep up his stellar play. Expect a 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 type game.
PREVIOUSLY: Rangers vs Lightning Game 1 Predictions
Elite goaltending should be on the menu when the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning take on the upstart New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Tampa Bay is 8-3 in the playoffs and has won five straight games entering Game 1.
The Lightning, who have not had top-line center Brayden Point since Game 7 of their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, have been carried by perennial Vezina Trophy finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy (.932 save percentage through 11 games) and an opportunistic offense carried by 2019 Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov (15 points).
The Rangers meanwhile advanced in a pair of seven-game series and are 5-0 when facing elimination this season.
New York’s goal is constantly under siege, the Rangers have the fifth-worst all-situation Corsi-For percentage (46.0) and third-worst all-situation Expected Goals-For percentage (41.4), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Yet New York is still playing due to their offense and Vezina favorite and Hart Trophy finalist Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin leads the NHL in playoff saves and has faced 100 more shots than Mike Smith of the Edmonton Oilers, who ranks second.
Game 1 is Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. Here’s what to expect.
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 31 at 1 p.m. ET.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 1 Odds
- Moneyline: Lightning (-125) / Rangers (+105)
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+200) / Rangers +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) / Under 5.5 (-110)
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction
I’ve been betting against the Rangers pretty much the entire postseason, and it’s not been a good scene.
New York is 0-2 in Game 1’s, including its triple-OT loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on home ice in the first round. It would be easy to think the Lightning waltz in, steal home-ice advantage while rolling to a short series win in five-or-so games.
That could happen, and the Rangers have to be running on fumes after a pair of seven-game thrillers. But the rest vs rust theory will be put to the test, since the Lightning will have eight days off, and New York will have only one.
But I’m inclined to trust the team that is firing over the one that needs to get back up to speed, at least for Game 1.
In addition, if Point can’t play, it would make things that much tougher for the Lightning against Shesterkin.
Rangers vs Lightning Game 1 Pick
Rangers 3, Lightning 1
Previously: Rangers vs Lightning Game 1 Best Bets
Rangers Moneyline (+105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
As stated above, the Rangers are in a routine of playing every other day. Plus, Shesterkin is playing on another level right now.
The Lightning will win games in this series, but the Rangers should be able to pull out Game 1.
Under 5.5 Goals (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The goaltenders should be the story in this game and the series. Each has been spectacular so far in the postseason.
The Under is probably the only true lock in this series.
Rangers vs Lightning Series Winner Odds
All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 31 at 1 p.m. ET.
- Lightning (-185)
- Rangers (+150)
Rangers vs Lightning Series Prediction
The Lightning and Rangers last played in the 2015 Eastern Conference final, the only Game 7 that New York has lost in the past decade. Tampa Bay has gone on to become the model NHL team. The Rangers sped through a rebuild, where they got younger, faster, and more skilled in extremely short order.
Still, the Rangers continue to proudly wear the underdog badge despite the fact they have home-ice advantage in the series.
New York has a history of playing to the middle, and the fact it has gone the distance in each of its first two series despite facing backup and third-string goalies tells you what you need to know about what to expect in this series.
The Rangers might win Game 1. But the Lightning are going to be there all series long. Plus, if they get Point back Tampa Bay’s offense would become far superior to New York’s.
Even if they don’t get Point back, the Lightning should be good enough to get back to the Cup final for the third straight year and fourth time in the past eight seasons.
Rangers vs Lightning Series Pick
Lightning in 6
Rangers vs Lightning Series Best Bets
Lightning -1.5 Games (+105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The oddsmakers expect this series to go six games. The Rangers are probably not going to win it in fewer than seven. If Tampa Bay can head home with a 3-2 series edge, it had better close out New York or risk more potential Game 7 magic at MSG.
Given the plus-money odds for the most likely outcome, it is worth taking advantage of.
