We’ve reached the final week of the XFL regular season, and there are four teams still vying for two remaining postseason spots.
Consequently, it should be yet another exciting weekend of betting action, and there are opportunities to capitalize on the fact the two division winners — the Defenders and Roughnecks — will have little incentive to push their starters.
Without further ado, let’s dive into our Week 10 XFL predictions and best bets.
Note: XFL odds used for these best bets are current as of April 19 at 3 p.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
XFL Week 10 Best Bet
Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.
Roughnecks vs Renegades Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Renegades (-115) • Roughnecks (-105)
- Spread: Renegades -1 (-110) • Roughnecks +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)
Renegades -1 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Roughnecks have the South Division title wrapped up. Meanwhile, if the Renegades win, they’ll enter the postseason as the South Division second-place team.
Such a development would pit these two teams against each other again in the first round of the postseason. As such, it seems pretty clear Roughnecks head coach Wade Phillips is likely to get his starters some work without showing too many wrinkles and then get his most important players back to the sideline as the contest unfolds.
Houston will naturally give effort, but there’s no question Arlington is the most-incentivized squad. Luis Perez also had the Renegades offense humming last week, and he should have a chance to remain aggressive given the stakes.
Given the circumstances at play, a Renegades win and cover is our XFL pick of the week.
Guardians vs Battlehawks Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Battlehawks (-350) • Guardians (+290)
- Spread: Battlehawks -8 (-115) • Guardians +8 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) • Under 47.5 (-110)
Guardians +8 (-105) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Guardians play like a team blissfully unaware they have only one win on the season.
Head coach Terrell Buckley won’t have much to smile about when he looks back on his inaugural season as head coach, but the fact his team played hard for him and his staff down the stretch will certainly be one.
Orlando hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points since Week 4, and the Guardians’ last two defeats have come by a combined four points. Meanwhile, despite their talented roster, the Battlehawks haven’t been a team known for big victories this season.
St. Louis has just two victories of nine points or more in 2023 and has been much more prone to close, last-minute victories. And with A.J. McCarron potentially still not at full health after a lackluster Week 9 performance, I like Orlando to cover this large spread.
Defenders vs Brahmas Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Defenders (-140) • Brahmas (+120)
- Spread: Defenders -3 (-110) • Brahmas +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)
Brahmas Moneyline (+120) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Defenders, who sit atop the XFL champion odds, are the other division winner on the slate that could choose to be selective with how starters are deployed in the regular-season finale.
Meanwhile, the Brahmas know they need to win this Saturday afternoon contest to have any chance of making the postseason. They’ll also have to rely on the Renegades stumbling against the Roughnecks on Sunday, and while that might be improbable as explained earlier, there’s no question head coach Hines Ward will have his team going all out.
Quarterback Jack Coan enjoyed his best game of the season in Week 9 against the Guardians, throwing for 302 yards, and Jacques Patrick continues to handle a massive rushing/receiving workload with aplomb.
As such, I’m the camp of San Antonio closing out the season with a win.
Vipers vs Sea Dragons Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-365) • Vipers (+300)
- Spread: Sea Dragons -8.5 (-110) • Vipers +8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47 (-110) • Under 47 (-110)
Over 47 Total Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Sea Dragons will be gunning for a win in their regular-season finale under any circumstance, but especially if the Battlehawks have recorded a victory over the Guardians on Saturday afternoon.
Seattle would win a tiebreaker over St. Louis, who they just throttled by a 30-12 score in Week 9, if both teams finish even in the standings.
Ben DiNucci and his extremely deep group of pass catchers are rolling at the moment, while the Vipers, who are playing better on defense recently, are still vulnerable to talent-rich units like that of the Sea Dragons.
However, Vegas has also demonstrated plenty of offensive improvement as the season has gone on, especially with Jalan McClendon under center over the last three games. The Vipers have exceeded 20 points in two of those three contests and fell just short in the third with 17.
Given the offensive capabilities of both teams, I’m expecting them to send the regular season out with some fireworks and one last Over.
