Week 5 in the National Football League sees the New Orleans Saints (2-2) taking on the New England Patriots (1-3) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
With both teams coming off a loss, the Saints and Patriots will look to bounce back in what’s shaping up to be a significant juncture in the season on Sunday.
Let’s dive in and examine some odds, predictions, best bets, prop bets, and offer a same-game parlay.
Saints vs Patriots Odds
NFL odds used for this New Orleans vs New England preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, October 3, at 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Patriots (-122) • Saints (+102)
- Spread: Patriots -1.5 (-110) • Saints +1.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 40.0 (-112) • Under 40.0 (-108)
- Implied Score: Patriots 20.75, Saints 19.25
Saints vs Patriots Predictions
Score Pick: Saints 19, Patriots 16
The Patriots open as slight 1.5-point favourites in this game, which is surprising given how poorly both quarterback Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense looked in an absolutely terrible 38-3 blowout loss at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys last week.
The game total also sits at 40, meaning prospective sportsbooks and betting markets are projecting a scrappy, low-scoring game in Foxborough between two struggling offenses.
To add insult to injury on the New England side of things, Jones was (deservedly) benched late in the third quarter on Sunday after turning the ball over three times, resulting in two Dallas touchdowns.
At the moment, it’s hard to trust anything the Patriots do offensively. Look for the Saints to eke out a hard-fought victory on the road.
Saints vs Patriots Best Bets & Props
Saints (+102)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
My first best bet will target New Orleans to win outright at (+102) odds.
After starting the season 2-0, the Saints have come back down to earth the past few weeks with back-to-back losses against the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, Week 5 sees New Orleans in a smash spot against the struggling Patriots.
On defense, the Saints have been impressive through the first four weeks of the season, ranking fourth in football in both opponents’ completion percentage (59.0%) and interceptions (five), and fifth in first down completion percentage (29.2%), per NFL Team Stats.
On the New England sideline, Jones has been disappointing through the air thus far this season, ranking 24th among active quarterbacks with an abysmal 63.7% completion percentage, seven sacks, and four interceptions.
When you factor in the aforementioned statistics, combined with a pesky and athletic Saints defense, it’s hard to imagine the Pats experiencing any sort of success progressing downfield on Sunday.
Take the Saints on the moneyline at plus odds as my NFL bet of the day.
Under 40 (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
My second best bet will pinpoint the game total, for which I’m taking the Under.
After returning from suspension in Week 4, Saints running back Alvin Kamara played a massive role in the New Orleans offense, logging 11 carries for 51 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry) and a whopping 13 receptions with 33 receiving yards.
Although these numbers don’t necessarily leap from the page, these are encouraging signs from Kamara, who is projected to see a ton of volume out of the backfield in his second game back. This should keep New England’s offense off the field and eat a ton of clock as the game progresses.
In addition, both the Patriots and Saints have also shown a ton of resiliency keeping drives alive thus far in 2023, ranking eighth and 11th, respectively, in third-down conversions per game, via NFL Team Rankings.
This game has all the makings for an ugly and stagnant contest where points will be hard to come by.
Saints Under 19.5 (-102)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
My third and final best bet will hone in on the Saints’ team total of 19.5 points, for which I’m taking the Under.
Last week’s 26-9 home loss at the hands of the Buccaneers saw Saints QB Derek Carr have an underwhelming afternoon by his standards. He went 23-37 and logged just 127 passing yards, leading his team to just nine points on the day.
Given the weapons Carr has at his disposal with the likes of Kamara, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas in the passing game, Carr has posted an abysmal 66.1% expected completion percentage (ranked 22nd) and 80.1% passer rating (ranked 23rd), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Although I like the Saints to emerge victorious, they’ll struggle to move the ball with any sort of consistency all afternoon long, making the Under on New Orleans’ team total a core play.
Saints vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay
Saints vs Patriots SGP (+134)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Under 40 (-108)
- Patriots Under 20.5 (-118)
For my same-game parlay, I’m targeting the Patriots’ team total of 20.5 points with the game total of 40 points. Let’s start with New England’s team total.
In the QB-centric NFL, it’s important to note the importance of quarterback play. Unfortunately, for the Patriots, the play of Jones has been erratic and inconsistent through the first four weeks of the season as they find themselves in a 1-3 hole early on,
To add further insult to injury, Jones ranks 24th among active quarterbacks in average completed air yards and 20th in completion percentage above expectation, via NFL Next Gen Stats, leaving many to wonder if Jones is the long-term answer at QB in New England.
It could be a long afternoon for Jones and Co. against a vastly improved Saints defense that loves to play in tight games. Take the Under on New Englands’ team total.
Rounding out our same-game parlay is the game total.
The past week has seen both New Orleans and New England play at a slower rate, ranking 18th and 26th, respectively, in pace of play/team plays per game.
Given the current plays of their respective quarterbacks, it’s hard to imagine this will change at all on Sunday, making the Under an intriguing play. For these reasons, I have no issue laying a single-unit wager on both the Pats’ team total and game total.
Combine the two legs to complete the same-game parlay at an enticing (+134) price point.
