The first game of the 2024 NFL Christmas Day double-header will feature Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) visit Acrisure Stadium to face off with Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5).
Both teams played on Saturday in Week 16, with the Chiefs handling the Texans at home and the Steelers getting blown out by the Ravens on the road.
Which team will win this potential AFC playoff preview? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before diving into my Chiefs vs Steelers prediction and best bets for Christmas Day.
Chiefs vs Steelers Christmas Odds
NFL odds are current as of Monday, Dec. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-142) vs Steelers (+120)
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) vs Steelers +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 43 (-110) / Under 43 (-110)
Chiefs vs Steelers Christmas Prediction
Chiefs 24, Steelers 20
The Steelers are expected to get back top wideout George Pickens, per Adam Schefter. That’s a huge boost for an offense that struggled without its number-one wide receiver — especially in the last two games, where they put up a combined 30 points in losses to the Ravens and Eagles.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’re facing a Super Bowl contender for the third week in a row. It’s the worst time to face the Chiefs because they’re rounding into form right now.
We saw Kansas City control the game vs another playoff team in the Texans in a 27-19 win. The return of Hollywood Brown gave Patrick Mahomes another dependable weapon. Brown hauled in 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards. Suddenly, this receiving core looks quite good with Brown, Xavier Worthy, and DeAndre Hopkins.
An improved Chiefs’ passing game is likely to spell trouble for a Steelers’ pass defense that has allowed 9.0+ yards per attempt to Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts in thier last two games.
However, it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh is also expected to get back safety DeShon Elliott, cornerback Donte Jackson, and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, which could help a bit.
Having said that, the Steelers just lost top cornerback Joey Porter Jr, who suffered a knee injury in Week 16. There’s a good chance that Porter will be out for this game.
With that in mind, it’s hard to see the Steelers able to slow down Mahomes and company in this spot. Look for the Chiefs to prevail in a close game.
Chiefs vs Steelers Christmas Best Bets
Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
I love getting below the key number of three with Chiefs -2.5 in this spot. That means that all we need to hit this wager is for Kansas City to win by a field goal.
Even though the Steelers are getting players back from injury, the loss of Joey Porter Jr. might be too much to overcome in pass defense.
We also should note that if we look at Pittsburgh’s strength of schedule, we see that they’ve definitely benefitted from softer competition, with wins over Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Browns boosting their record.
In other words, I don’t think they’re as good as their 10-5 record shows.
Back the Chiefs -2.5 as one of your best NFL bets today.
Chiefs/Steelers: Over 43 Points (-110)
When you consider that this is a projected close game with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites, it’s nice to be able to get below the key number of 43.5. It gives us a chance to push in a 23-20 type of score line, which is appealing.
It also correlates with my thought in backing the Chiefs -2.5 due to their improved passing game following the return of Hollywood Brown along with Steelers defensive concerns with Joey Porter Jr’s injury.
Back the Over in Chiefs vs Steelers on Christmas.
