The regular season is close to ending, and we have a slate of only three games this weekend. Even though it is only three games, they all have playoff ramifications.
BC and Calgary play each other in a game that could determine the second and third West Division playoff seeds. Additionally, the Montreal and Hamilton game could determine the second and third East Division seeds as both teams are separated by only one game in the standings.
Below, read about my best CFL bets for Week 16.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 34-37, -6.2% Return on Investment,
+3.4% Closing Line Value
All CFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 20, at 12 p.m. ET, at the CFL sportsbooks listed.
Hamilton vs Montreal Best Bet
Montreal -2.5 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
There is only one CFL team that hasn’t won on the road this season - the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. As a result, after winning the East Division two years in a row, they are now in third place with a 4-9 record.
Luckily for Hamilton, they are only one game behind Montreal in the standings and could tie them for second place with a win this weekend.
The Ti-Cats have been struggling all season, but they roared to victory last weekend with an upset win as 6.5-point home underdogs against the two-time defending Grey Cup Champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
In that game, Hamilton laid 48 points on a Winnipeg defense that is the best in the league. This was because Dane Evans, who has been struggling all season, threw for 327 yards, five passing touchdowns, and completed 78.1% of his passes.
Obviously, if Evans plays like that, they are winning the East Division but based on his previous track record, last week seems like an outlier. Montreal’s defense has been playing well lately, and they should benefit from a bye week and playing at home.
As a 2.5-point favorite, I am cautiously backing the Alouettes this weekend but would only bet them up to -3 (-105).
Toronto vs Ottawa Best Bet
Toronto -2.5 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Toronto is the only team in the East Division with a winning record at 7-5. As a result, they are ahead of the second-place Montreal Alouettes with a tw0-game lead in the standings.
In last place in the East are the Ottawa Redblacks, who are four games behind them in the standings. If Ottawa can come through with the upset Saturday, they have an outside chance of making the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Ottawa, this is Toronto’s game to lose.
Both the Argos and the Redblacks had a bye last week after they played each other the previous week. In that game, Toronto won, 24-19. What was surprising to me in that game is that Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle had one of his best performances of the season.
What qualifies as a strong performance for Arbuckle? Completing 65% of his passing for 290 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, and one interception. Overall, Arbuckle has only three passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2022.
Arbuckle’s backup, Caleb Evans, is not that much better, which is why I would still back Toronto even if Arbuckle gets benched. At -2.5, Toronto is a steal, and I would bet them up to -4.5.
Calgary vs BC Best Bets
Calgary +1.5 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Under 55.5 Points (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Last week, Calgary hosted BC. In that game, I backed the Stampeders spread and the Under, and both bets lost.
So, I am doing what any rational man would do.
I am making both bets again.
If it wasn’t for the added variance of the last game going into overtime, the Under would have hit, and Calgary might have covered.
Looking at the total, both teams are using their backup quarterbacks for the remainder of the regular season. BC started off the season with Nathan Rourke, who was the best CFL quarterback this season until he got sidelined with a foot injury. Calgary started the year with veteran Bo Levi Mitchell, who was benched because of poor performance.
With both teams having strong defenses and uncertainty at quarterback, why is the point total set at 55.5 points when the average CFL game this season has about 46 combined points scored? The Under is a no-brainer this week, and I would bet it up to 52.5 points.
Outside of the Under, I like Calgary to cover as a +1.5 underdog against BC. Last week, the Stampeders were 5.5-point favorites against the Lions. For this week, I don’t see why an overtime loss and not having a home-field advantage is worth seven points to the spread.
Calgary has an edge in quarterback play and a slightly better defense. At +1.5, I like Calgary, and I would bet them up to -1 this weekend.
