Sunday Night Football of the NFL Playoffs features an NFC Wild Card matchup between Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (12-5) taking on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, January 12 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
This is a rematch of Week 1, where the Bucs took care of business with a 37-20 victory over the Commanders. But I expect this game to look a bit different this time around.
Which team will win this NFC Wild Card game? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before diving into my Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction and best bets for the NFL Playoffs.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Odds
NFL odds are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 8, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Commanders (+145) vs Buccaneers (-175)
- Spread: Commanders +3 (-105) vs Buccaneers -3 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-112) / Under 50.5 (-108)
Commanders vs Buccaneers Prediction
Commanders 27, Buccaneers 24
I’m favoring the Commanders in this Week 1 rematch because this team has improved dramatically since that 37-20 loss to the Bucs.
Adding former Saints’ top cornerback Marshon Lattimore — who is expected back for this game — is huge because he’s had success against Bucs’ top wideout Mike Evans throughout his career.
Lattimore can slow down Evans, which would make life more difficult for Baker Mayfield.
It’s also worth noting that the Bucs are banged up in the secondary, with both Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield Jr. having questionable statuses for this game.
If both or either one of these players is out, that could have a huge impact on this matchup. We may see Jayden Daniels pick apart this defense in that scenario.
Even if Dean and/or Winfield Jr. are able to play, this is still a defense that ranks 19th against the pass, so Daniels may have success either way.
While detractors may point to the fact that the Commanders could easily have a much worse record, as they’ve had plenty of close wins — my counter to that is this is a dynamic offense led by one of the best rookie quarterbacks in recent memory.
Mayfield has been great for the Bucs, but I’m giving the edge to the Commanders with Daniels under center.
Commanders’ head coach Dan Quinn has also been to the Super Bowl, so there’s that experience edge in coaching for Washington as well.
With that in mind, let’s ride with Washington to pull off the upset here.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Commanders vs Buccaneers Best Bets
Commanders +3 (-105)
While taking the Commanders moneyline is enticing at (+145) odds, I’d rather play it safe with the point spread, since we still win if they lose the game by one or two.
I like getting at the key number of three with what I believe is the superior team.
We just saw the Bucs have a tough time with a depleted Saints team. Saints’ rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler — who had been struggling leading up to this game — threw for 240 yards.
I’m betting that Jayden Daniels has similar success in this spot, especially vs a potentially undermanned Bucs’ secondary.
Back Commanders +3 as one of your best NFL bets today.
Buccaneers: Under 28.5 Points (-155)
I like laying some juice at (-155) past the key number of 28 when targeting the Bucs’ team total for this game.
The Commanders like to run the ball with Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, and Austin Ekeler. This can chew time off the clock and result in fewer possessions for Tampa Bay, which bodes well for this Under.
Since I like Washington to win this game, it makes sense to fade the Bucs in some way, so we’ll ride with their Under here.
It’s also worth noting that Tampa has failed to surpass 28 points in four of their last six games.
