Two long-time rivals devoid of postseason incentive meet to close out their NFL regular seasons at the Las Vegas Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium.
Raiders interim head coach Antonio Pierce will get one final opportunity to make a case to keep the job in 2024 and beyond, while the Denver Broncos will stick with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback to conclude their first campaign under Sean Payton’s leadership.
Let’s dive into how best to attack this game from a betting perspective based on NFL Week 18 odds.
Broncos vs Raiders Odds
NFL odds used for this Denver vs Las Vegas preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted and are current as of Jan. 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Raiders (-155) • Broncos (+130)
- Spread: Raiders -3 (-102) • Broncos +3 (-118)
- Total Points: Over 38 (-112) • Under 38 (-108)
- Implied Score: Raiders 20.5, Broncos 17.5
Broncos vs Raiders Predictions
Score Pick: Raiders 21, Broncos 17
The Raiders have shown fight, passion and an ability to defend their home field well under Pierce, who’s led Las Vegas to a 4-4 record that includes three losses by a combined 13 points.
Even the one defeat in that sample by more than seven points – a 31-17 loss to the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs – saw the Raiders go into the fourth quarter down only four points.
Las Vegas has stuck with Aidan O’Connell down the stretch, and it’s started to pay dividends. The rookie has thrown for 1,161 yards with a 9-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the eight games Pierce has been at the helm.
He’s thrown for at least 248 yards in four of those contests, and the matchup against a Broncos defense that’s allowed the fifth-most passing yards per road game (268.6) could certainly help him close out the season in strong fashion.
Furthering O’Connell’s chances of a successful afternoon is the balance the Raiders should be able to enjoy against a Denver defense that’s yielded an NFL-high 165.6 rushing yards per road game.
Josh Jacobs could well sit out with his quadriceps injury given the lack of postseason implications for Vegas, but Zamir White has already proved capable of shouldering a Jacobs-like workload with aplomb while averaging 125.5 total yards on 23.5 touches over his first two games as a starter.
Finally, the Broncos’ Stidham-led offense will have a tough assignment against a Raiders defense that’s seemingly taken on the fiery personality of its interim coach.
Las Vegas is up to 40 sacks on the campaign and has also picked off 12 passes while playing especially effective defense at home – the Raiders are allowing just 102.8 rushing yards and 201.8 passing yards per Allegiant Stadium contest.
Even though the Broncos’ Courtland Sutton has a chance to return from his concussion for the finale, the Raiders’ balanced offense and feisty defense will be enough for a close victory.
Broncos vs Raiders Best Bets & Props
Raiders moneyline (-155)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The combination of the Raiders’ home-field edge and the incentive they’ll have in trying to put good play on film for a coach they seem to truly enjoy playing for will help carry them to victory.
Unsurprisingly, Las Vegas’ defense has especially taken to Pierce’s leadership. The unit’s ability to apply constant pressure combined with the Raiders’ expected success on the ground will be enough to set O’Connell up for a couple of big plays in the passing game on the way to a win in my NFL bet of the day.
Raiders -2.5 (-120)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Building on the logic of a Raiders win, I’ll also go with this sub-3-point spread I was able to find on FanDuel Sportsbook.
While my score prediction consists of a four-point margin of victory for Las Vegas, this gives us a bit more safety and gets under the all-important three-point margin.
The fact Vegas is 5-2-1 ATS as a home team and Denver is 2-4-1 against the number as a road team only serves to cement my pick.
Broncos Under 18.5 (-122)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The combination of the Raiders defense’s progress under Pierce and the Broncos’ inconsistent offense leads me to this bet.
The Raiders have been excellent on defense on their home turf all season, allowing only 304.5 total yards per game and the third-fewest points per contest (15.8) in that split.
Meanwhile, Denver is averaging a modest 20.1 points per road game but only 18.7 per contest in the last three games overall.
Broncos vs Raiders Same-Game Parlay
Broncos vs Raiders SGP (+165)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Raiders (-156)
- Over 35.5 Alt (-180)
- Raiders -2.5 (-120)
We’ll work with two of my main bets in this FanDuel Sportsbook parlay and will add in an alternate total that is markedly better than the 38 or 38.5 points that is out there at most sportsbooks.
By backing the idea of a Raiders win of at least three points and also going with my original score prediction of 21-17, we have a rock-solid foundation for a parlay that carries an appealing price.
