As we emerge out of Wild Card Weekend, the playoff landscape has changed. A big reason for that change was the Packers 48-32 upset (dismantling?) of the Cowboys. The Packers looked better than anyone expected and will now head West to see if they can take down the 49ers.
They’ll have a tall task ahead of them as the 49ers won seven of their last eight regular season games (that actually meant anything), but we’re in any given Sunday territory.
Let’s dig into these NFL Divisional odds and see if we can find some betting value.
Packers vs 49ers Odds
NFL odds used for this Green Bay vs San Francisco preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 16, at noon ET.
- Moneyline: 49ers (-440) • Packers (+340)
- Spread: 49ers -9.5 (-110) • Packers +9.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 50.5 (-110) • Under 50.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: 49ers 29.75, Packers 19.75
Packers vs 49ers Predictions
Score Pick: 49ers 30, Packers 23
While the 49ers come into this game on a nice run, the Packers have sneakily won their last four games, with first-year starter Jordan Love blossoming right in front of everyone’s eyes. Coming off a 48-point outburst against the Cowboys, the Packers will look to carry their momentum into San Francisco.
However, the 49ers were the most consistently dominant team in the league this season (alongside the Ravens) and will have basically had three weeks to get healthy and prepare for the Divisional Round. The 49ers have essentially only lost to the Ravens and Bengals at home this season (I’m not counting their meaningless Week 18 loss), and have generally been dominant in their home wins.
Could we see a letdown as the 49ers try to shake off some rust? Sure, anything can happen. But the combination of talent disparity, coaching advantage, home-field advantage, and rest will be too much for the Packers to overcome this week.
Packers vs 49ers Best Bets & Props
Jordan Love Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
While I don’t think the Packers will win this week, I don’t think Love will be the reason they lose. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last five games, and he’s topped 250 passing yards in four of those five games.
Love has taken his play to a new level over the last month of the year and will also likely have to throw the ball quite a bit to keep up with a 49ers offense that scored the third-most points per game this season. Love’s recent play and the likely game script have me salivating over this prop, and I’m locking it in as my NFL bet of the day.
Packers +9.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The 49ers are heavy favorites in this game for good reason, but I think 10 points is a little too much when you take the Packers recent play into account. Sure, they’re the No. 7 seed in the NFC, but they also averaged over 22 points per game this season and were in the top 10 in terms of points allowed.
While the 49ers offense is going to be too powerful for the Packers to keep up with, they should be able to hang with them enough to keep things relatively close to help us cover this somewhat large spread.
Over 50.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
When we combine the two teams average points per game this season (28.9 for the 49ers and 22.5 for the Packers), we surpass this total. Now, things don’t exactly work like that as the 49ers have only allowed an average of 17.5 points per game, but we can at least have a takeaway that both teams can put up points (especially considering the Packers just put up 48 on the road against a good Cowboys defense).
With Love playing out of his mind and the 49ers having three weeks to cook up an offensive game plan, we’re looking at a good chance of a shootout this weekend.
Packers vs 49ers Same Game Parlay
Packers vs 49ers SGP (+345)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- 49ers (-440)
- Christian McCaffrey Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD Scorer (-370)
- Jordan Love Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I don’t usually love parlays that require this many legs to hit, but none of these standalone bets qualify as going out on a limb.
As long as you think the 49ers will hold serve at home and win (I do), and you’re on board with the Love passing yards bet, we’re only looking for Christian McCaffrey to be Christian McCaffrey here.
He scored a touchdown in all but two games this season and saw at least five targets in each of his last three games. With multiple weeks to heal his tweaked calf muscle, McCaffrey should be ready to eat this week.
