Welcome to the playoffs.
Wild Card weekend is my favorite playoff weekend because it gives us the most amount of games and player props to choose from.
It’s also nice because we’re past the point of worrying about which teams are resting players. And we no longer have to pontificate about which team has more to play for. It’s lose-and-you-go-home season and every team will be pulling out all the stops this weekend.
Let’s dig in and find some of the best player prop bets to make for Wild Card weekend.
All NFL gameday odds for NFL Wild Card player prop bets are current as of Thursday, January 13, at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Raiders vs Bengals Player Props
Derek Carr: Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I’m dropping my confidence down a bit here, but I still think Derek Carr has this one in him. While he’s struggled a little as of late, Carr is likely going to throw quite a bit as the Bengals’ run defense is much better than their pass defense.
He’s also probably going to have to throw in order to keep up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ potent offense. Carr has only topped this total twice in his last five games, but the game flow sets up nicely for him here.
Tyler Boyd: Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Tyler Boyd serves as the third option behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but he still gets plenty of love from Joe Burrow. Boyd has seen five-plus targets in each of his last five games and has surpassed this total in all but one of those games.
While the Raiders have a tough pass defense, Boyd may see some more opportunities as Las Vegas tries to clamp down on Chase and Higgins.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make for NFL Wild Card.
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Patriots vs Bills Player Props
Jonnu Smith: Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
Jonnu Smith has only caught one pass in his last three games. Sucker bet going Over here, right? Not in my opinion.
Though they’ve gotten away from him over the past few weeks, the Patriots have made a point of designing at least one play for Smith in most of their games this season. In fact, he caught one of the only three passes that Mac Jones threw in Buffalo six weeks ago.
I’m certainly not the high man on Jonnu Smith’s performance this weekend, but we really only need one reception.
Nelson Agholor: Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
After missing two games in a row with a concussion, Nelson Agholor played 89 percent of the Patriots snaps last week, catching three balls for 23 yards. That’s not going to get us to this prop, but it’s progress.
As maligned as Agholor is in fan circles, Mac Jones‘ stats are much better when Agholor is on the field. He’s the only deep threat the Patriots have on their roster.
With the Patriots likely having to pass to keep up with Buffalo, Agholor is likely to see his fair share of targets. That should be enough to get us to this relatively low prop.
49ers vs Cowboys Player Props
Deebo Samuel: Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Deebo Samuel doesn’t have to make up for the absence of Elijah Mitchell anymore, but that doesn’t mean the 49ers aren’t going to use him as a runner. Samuel has carried the ball an average of 6.6 times per game over the last eight weeks, averaging 42.9 yards on 6.5 yards per carry over that same timespan.
While those averages don’t necessarily mean anything in regards to one game, there’s a very good chance we’ll see at least five Samuel carries this weekend. If he can keep up the same yards-per-carry average he’s had over the second half of the season, we’ll be all set.
Check out more of our NFL Wild Card Betting Tips
Cardinals vs Rams Player Props
Kyler Murray: Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While the Rams run defense is top 10 in the league, the Rams pass defense is in the bottom 10. They’ve given up 260.9 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which includes totals of 268 and 383 passing yards from Kyler Murray in his two games against them this season.
Murray has topped this total three times in his last five games and came up just short in the two games he didn’t. With the game flow likely pushing Murray into more passing situations this week, 254 passing yards is a reachable goal.
Christian Kirk: Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
DeAndre Hopkins has been ruled out for this weekend, so Kirk will once again be featured in the Cardinals offense. Last week’s stinker aside, Kirk had seen 30 targets in his three previous games and had gone over 52.5 receiving yards in two of those three contests.
While the Rams have a talented secondary, they’ve also given up the fourth-most yards to opposing receivers this season. Again, with an elevated role in the Cardinals offense, Kirk has a good shot at going for 53 yards or more.
Could this weekend’s Wild Card matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs be Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger’s last stand? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Top NFL Wild Card Player Props
Ben Roethlisberger: Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
This is probably the last time we’ll see Ben Roethlisberger listed on a prop bet, so it’s hard to resist this one — especially with the yardage total.
I get it, Big Ben hasn’t looked remotely like himself this season. And I know he hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in three of his last four games. But he also has to keep up with Patrick Mahomes this weekend and has thrown the ball 90 times in his last two games.
In what is likely his last game in the NFL, Roethlisberger should be able to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the ninth-worst mark in the league.
Jalen Hurts: Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Jalen Hurts is almost impossible to predict, but I’m a glutton for punishment. All joking aside, Hurts is in a good spot to top 200 yards this week for a few reasons.
First, the Buccaneers have a really good run defense the Eagles aren’t going to want to run straight into. Second, the Buccaneers have an iffy pass defense that has allowed an average of 253.1 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. And third, the Eagles are going to have to keep up with Tom Brady, meaning Hurts is going to have to throw a lot.
Hurts has a lot of things going for him this week, and should be able to top 197.5 yards for the fourth-straight game.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 53-70, -22.0 Units
