Welcome to Week 17!
We’re headed into yet another wild week with player availability, so we’re a bit limited with the options. However, there’s still plenty of value out there as more than two thirds of the league jockey for playoff positioning this weekend.
Keeping in mind we’ll need to check for late-breaking player availability news this weekend, let’s dig into some of the best player prop bets to make in Week 17.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 17 player prop bets are current as of December 31 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 17
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Dolphins vs Titans Player Props
A.J. Brown Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Will A.J. Brown go off for 11 receptions and 145 yards on 16 targets again this week? Probably not. But we don’t need him to.
Brown dominated Ryan Tannehill‘s targets last week and should do so again against a Dolphins defense that allows an average of 168.5 receiving yards to opposing receivers, the sixth-worst mark in the league.
As long as Brown sees half the targets he saw last week, we should be in great shape on this one.
D’Onta Foreman Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
After carrying the load for the Titans for three weeks, D’Onta Foreman only saw nine carries last week. One week does not make a pattern, but Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard both outgained Foreman last week. And Ryan Tannehill has run the ball four times in each of the last three games.
Even worse, the Dolphins have a good run defense, allowing an average of 83.9 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. I don’t doubt that Foreman can top 54.5 yards. I just don’t think he’ll get enough carries to get there if the Dolphins limit the Titans backs to anything close to 83.9 yards.
Eagles vs Washington Player Props
Jalen Hurts Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Jalen Hurts has topped this passing total once in his past seven games and only twice in his past 10. Between a low completion percentage and the Eagles commitment to the run, Hurts just hasn’t put up big passing numbers this year.
He’s only completed more than 17 passes in one of his last seven games. That’s just not enough completions to rack up high yardage totals.
Hurts will have the benefit of playing against a Washington defense that has allowed over 280 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (which is third-worst in the league), but he likely won’t complete enough passes to top 206.5 yards.
Terry McLaurin Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m a big Terry McLaurin fan so I’d love to be writing up an Over here, but he’s unfortunately fallen on hard times lately. Taylor Heinicke has struggled as the season has progressed, and McLaurin has posted 51 receiving yards or less in five straight weeks.
He’ll also be up against Darius Slay and an Eagles defense that has allowed just 122.2 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers, good for second in the league.
Rams vs Ravens Player Props
Tyler Higbee Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Tyler Higbee has been a forgotten man in the Rams offense at times this season, but he’s been back on Matthew Stafford‘s radar with ten catches for 89 yards on 12 targets over the last two games.
The Ravens are also notoriously bad against opposing tight ends, and have allowed the fifth-most receiving yardage to the position this season. This is a relatively low total that Higbee has a very good chance to clear.
Matthew Stafford Over 285.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m tempted to drop down my unit confidence here, but I’ll stick with Matthew Stafford as he faces a Ravens defense that allows a league-worst 296.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Also, this is the same Ravens defense that just allowed 525 passing yards to Joe Burrow.
The only thing that gives me pause here is that Stafford hasn’t thrown for more than 244 yards in either of his last two games. Still, the Rams won’t be able to rely on Sony Michel as much this week as the Ravens have a very good run defense.
With the thinking that the Rams will take to the air against a bad Ravens secondary, I think we can safely lock in Stafford here.
Top Week 17 NFL Player Props
Cooper Kupp Over 106.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Caesars
Ravens vs Rams
Wager: 2 Units
106.5 is a high total, but if anyone can do it, Cooper Kupp can. Kupp has topped this total in more than half his games this season, including his last four.
The Rams have to feed Kupp with targets this season (he’s only seen single-digit targets in one game all year), and he’s chasing Calvin Johnson‘s single-season receiving yardage record, so they’ll continue to feed him this week.
It also doesn’t hurt that he’s facing a Ravens secondary that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing receivers this season.
Zach Wilson Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Buccaneers vs Jets
Wager: 2 Units
Zach Wilson might have a bright future, but he’s facing a murky present. While Wilson has shown improvement since his return from injury, he’s still struggling to navigate his way through the end of his rookie season. Especially with most of his best receivers injured.
Wilson has only topped 210 yards three times this season, and he’s only done it once in his last seven games. Having to lean on players like Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims as his go-to options, Wilson is again poised to hover around 200 yards this week.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 49-58, -12.0 Units
