They call me Mr. 5-3.
Well, no they don’t. That would be weird and somewhat boring. But that record—five wins, three losses—has been a constant when it comes to NFL prop bets.
It could be worse. It could also be better, and we’ve been so close to breaking through with a massive showing the past month. Still, 5-3 will do just fine.
That was our record in Week 14, and we’re looking to build on it this week. Week 15 doesn’t just offer up a handful of marquee games; it also brings us NFL games on Saturday.
Yes, there is football on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Let us embrace the new calendar with more winners.
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NFL Week 15 Best Prop Bets
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
On the topic of football happening all week long, behold this beauty.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert is likely must-see television for the next decade, and this week is no different.
Herbert got the best of Mahomes the first time these two clashed earlier in the year. It’s been a bit of a wild ride since then for both teams, although each one seems to be trending well of late.
The Chiefs have won six in a row, and they have largely done so with defense. KC has not allowed 20 points in those six games, and it has kept opponents in single digits in four of the past six. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has scored 37 or more points in three of the past four.
Something has to give, and I believe something will.
Los Angeles Chargers Under 24.5 Points (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Kansas City defense has simply been superb. While Herbert is on a heater, I think the pressure up front and overall performance disrupts him enough.
Kansas City Over 6.5 First Quarter Points (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Chiefs are on fire, and that’s largely due to the defense (see above) and also the offense finding itself. Mahomes lifts KC to a first-quarter touchdown. That’s all we need.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Let me be the first to welcome back running back Jonathan Taylor after a one-week hiatus, aka the team’s bye. I know this because my fantasy team certainly felt the impact of his absence.
Greeting him and the rest of the Colts are the Patriots, which have now won seven games in a row. New England also enjoyed a bye this week after running, almost exclusively, to a victory over Buffalo.
Mac Jones has certainly been excellent as a rookie, although this will be a tall order on the road against a quality defense. The Colts are also a slight chalk, which will likely generate plenty of New England action.
I could see the game going the other way, and the prop bets certainly speak to that.
Indianapolis -1 First Half (+125) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Colts are quietly playing some excellent football, and I expect both homefield and the rushing attack to be good enough in the first 30 minutes.
Under 22.5 First Half Points (-105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
This is not likely to be an explosive game, and two solid defenses will make life difficult on the offenses. Plus, I expect this clock to be ticking with as many rushes as there are likely to be.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams Props
The Seahawks are back.
Well, maybe.
At the very least, Seattle looks more like itself. And their performance in recent weeks, largely behind a rejuvenated offensive attack, is putting the Seahawks in a position to crash the playoffs once again.
At 5-8, there’s still a long way to go, but back-to-back wins are a start, and Russell Wilson certainly looks to be healthier and more comfortable than he’s been. A breakout performance from RB Rashaad Penny last week didn’t hurt, either.
But the Rams are riding high after a massive Monday Night Football win over Arizona. Aaron Donald played like the best player in football, as he often does. And the offense, led by wideout Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford, did enough.
Suddenly, this is a delightful clash. And it will likely deliver on a few fronts.
Los Angeles First to Score (-140) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I trust the Rams’ defense, still have concerns about the Seahawks’ offense and expect LA to be active with the ball once again. These ingredients are enough to make this bet.
Los Angeles Over 12.5 First Half Points (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I loved what I saw from the offense against Arizona, and I expect that success to continue. The Rams eclipse the point total with ease in the first half.
Will the Saints have Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ number in Week 15? Image: USA TODAY Sports
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay tenure has been a smashing success, the Saints have largely been his kryptonite.
New Orleans won both regular season games in 2020, including a wild 38-3 blowout. The Saints also won the first game these two teams played this year.
Brady, of course, ultimately beat the Saints in the playoffs, which is what he does. But the New Orleans defense has had his number.
Up until last week, the Saints’ defense had been struggling. Playing the Jets, of course, can cure a lot of ailments. (And it did.)
Taysom Hill also played an excellent game at QB, and Alvin Kamara did his part.
The point spread, however, is double digits, which says plenty about how the oddsmakers believe this game will go. Given recent history, it’s hard to argue with.
Over 5 Touchdowns (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
While New Orleans’ defense was improved last week, Tampa Bay is a slightly different obstacle than the Jets. It would not shock me to see the Bucs account for at least four of these scores.
Buccaneers -3 First Quarter (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Although New Orleans has largely had Brady’s number, this will be a different outcome. And I think the QB (and team) have something to prove.
