Everything was going to plan. Then the wind came.
What looked like a dominant week of prop bets was undone when the Bills were unable to do much of anything against the Patriots. It didn’t matter that Mac Jones essentially handed the ball off for three hours. The Pats still won, and I had to “settle” for a 5-3 week.
Oh, what could have been.
Still, we’re on a roll. The only thing that seems to stop us these days are enormous wind gusts. Outside of that, we’ve been consistent.
This week, I have thoughts about Packers-Bears on Sunday Night Football. I’m also eyeing the 49ers vs. the Bengals.
So, let’s do that.
Here are the latest prop bets.
NFL Week 14 Best Prop Bets
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Welcome to the ‘lick your wounds’ bowl. (I’m sorry I just can’t help myself. It’s bowl season after all.)
Cincinnati couldn’t stop turning it over against the Chargers. The 49ers couldn’t help but allow Seattle’s offense to look functional for the first time in a long time.
Translation: Not great for either.
Joe Burrow’s finger? Also, not great. While it sounds like Burrow will attempt to play through the injury, this doesn’t seem like an optimal situation. Running back Joe Mixon also was banged up last weekend, and his status is worthy of keeping an eye on.
San Francisco, meanwhile, saw its three-game winning streak go up in flames. The 49ers are also dealing with injuries, and star wideout/running back Deebo Samuel could potentially return this week.
We have uncertainty and star power and enormous stakes. Just how we like it.
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Cincinnati Bengals -1 After First Quarter (+140) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Playing at home will certainly help. I expect far less mistakes for Cincinnati this week as it continues its rollercoaster year.
Under 24 First Half Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The injuries will play a role, as well the lackluster play of both teams. It should be a great game, although I think it starts slow.
Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys
It wasn’t always pretty against the Saints, although the Cowboys used a mix of offense—and some defense—to get by Taysom Hill and New Orleans.
As Ezekiel Elliott continues to run injured, the Cowboys’ offense still has plenty of firepower. There have been blips along the way this year, although the unit has been largely good. And a defense, led by rookie pass rusher Micah Parsons, has thrived.
Washington has somewhat quietly won four games in a row, covering the spread in all four. And despite being without star pass rusher Chase Young, the defense has reemerged. In the last five games, it has allowed 20 points or more only once.
That is likely to change this week, especially on the road. And if that isn’t a tease for what’s coming next, I’m not sure what is.
Dallas Cowboys First-Half Moneyline (-165) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Washington beat the Bucs, which is a great win. But close victories over Carolina, Seattle and Las Vegas don’t exactly dazzle. Cowboys start early.
Dallas Cowboys Over 26.5 Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Regardless of Elliott, Dak Prescott will still do the heavy lifting. I look for Washington’s defense to regress this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo, let’s talk about it.
Well, technically I already did in the open, although losing to a team that threw the ball a grand total of three times is somewhat spectacular. Well, not for me. I lost money.
Still, it’s hard not to obsess over the Bill’s loss to the Pats. And yet, it’s easy to look beyond it. Josh Allen is still superb, and he should be much better in reasonable conditions.
Tampa Bay has rallied nicely since dropping the game to Washington, winning three in a row and covering the spread in all three games. Tom Brady isn’t the only vet delivering a superb year. Rob Gronkowski, now healthy, has become a touchdown machine in recent weeks.
While many are likely off the Bills after such a meh showing on Monday night, I think they respond in a big way. Unless there is a big wind.
If that’s the case, all bets are off. Literally.
Over 10 First Quarter Points (+100) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I love these QBs, and I think they could both produce early. Both offenses can move the ball fast. And although I like both of these defenses quite a bit, they don’t stand a chance.
Over 26.5 First Half Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m doubling down on points, and it feels lovely. Sit back, relax and watch the QBs go to work.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
“I still own you.”
Those words, courtesy of the spectacular Aaron Rodgers, emerged during the first installment of Bears-Packers. Rodgers, who indeed owns Chicago, simply hasn’t said the obvious part out loud much.
Last week, Rodgers and the Packers didn’t do or say much of anything. It was a bye week, and it couldn’t come at a better time given the QB’s gimpy toe.
The point spread, nearly two touchdowns, says a lot about how this game might go. And while the Bears finally hit 20 points for the first time in three games, I’m not sure how we can trust this offense on the road against a superior team in pretty much every facet.
QB Justin Fields’ status remains a bit of a mystery, although I’m not sure it matters much. For the Bears to be close, it’s going to require a monumental effort. While football has been weird, this one could very well go as planned.
Green Bay Packers First to Score (-210) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
This is incredibly chalky, and for that I am sorry. Wait, no I’m not. This is the right play, the smart play and actually decent value at 2/1.
Green Bay Packers Over 27.5 Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s not just the Packers’ offense. It’s the Bears’ offense, which should give the Packers even more chances. Look for Rodgers to make another statement. Again.
