The 49ers moved to 6-5 with a 34-26 win over the Vikings in Week 12, but it was a costly victory. Deebo Samuel, who’s been the most critical and healthiest component of the offense all season, suffered a groin injury that will keep him out of this contest at minimum.
On the positive side of things, rookie running back Elijah Mitchell came back from a one-game absence to put together a stellar 133-yard, one-touchdown effort.
The Seahawks stumbled yet again on Monday night, dropping a 17-15 decision to Washington in the nation’s capital. Russell Wilson looked better than he did in his first two games back from his finger fracture, throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
Wilson also led what would have been a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter had he been able to connect on a late two-point conversion pass attempt to Freddie Swain. The Seahawks are now 3-8 following their third straight loss, and for all practical purposes, out of the playoff picture.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 9 a.m. ET on Friday, December 3.
49ers vs Seahawks Prediction
The 49ers are down their most explosive element in Deebo Samuel, which is naturally going to affect the rest of their offense to an extent.
Samuel has posted 1,209 total yards and 10 total touchdowns so far this season. He’d also been playing a significant role in the running game prior to his injury, rushing for 147 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games alone.
San Francisco should still have a fair share of opportunities to attack a Seahawks defense that allows an NFL-high 399 total yards per game. However, it’s worth noting Seattle has been tightening up more against the run of late, yielding 117.7 rush yards per contest in the last three, compared to 124.9 for the season.
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Seattle’s bigger weakness continues to be defending the pass (286.6 PYPG allowed), but without Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo is down a key weapon that would have been able to draw attention away from Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
Additionally, Samuel had played a key role in the first meeting between these teams, a 28-21 win for Seattle in Santa Clara back in Week 4, notching 156 receiving yards and two touchdowns on eight catches.
On the other side, Wilson will face a Niners defense that has been very good against the pass on the road, but one that he’s historically had plenty of success against. Wilson boasts a 100.1 career passer rating and 34:9 TD:INT ratio against San Francisco in 19 career meetings. Moreover, he should have a good chance of reaping the benefits of a balanced attack.
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The Niners have surrendered 118.2 rushing yards per game on the road this year at 4.5 yards per carry. Alex Collins and the remainder of Seattle’s running back committee has struggled in recent weeks and haven’t had consistent opportunities due to game script.
However, they should have a solid chance of gaining a foothold at home and keeping the defense off balance for Wilson, especially with the 49ers slated to be down stud middle linebacker Fred Warner (hamstring), who has recorded a team-high 92 tackles through 11 games.
Divisional matchups are always tricky to prognosticate, but I like the home underdog in this spot. These are uncharted waters for Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, and Co., all the more reason for them to play with a chip on their shoulder and take things up a notch in an effort to snap a three-game losing streak.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 21
Seahawks running back Alex Collins could see increased opportunities against a 49ers defense without top linebacker Fred Warner in Week 13. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
49ers vs Seahawks Best Bets
Best Bet: Seahawks Moneyline (+135) at FOX Bet
As detailed earlier, I see the Seahawks battling enough at home to cover the spread at the very minimum, if not pull the outright upset. Russell Wilson and company simply have too much pride and the 49ers have a weaker offense without the threat of Samuel, helping seal my prediction.
From a statistical trend perspective, it’s also worth noting Seattle is 61-22 (.735) straight up at home since Wilson’s arrival in 2012.
With the Seahawks at home and more desperate than ever for a win, I like Seattle to prevail in our NFL pick of the day.
Best Bet: Seahawks 1H Over 12.5 Total Points (+120) at FOX Bet
As mentioned before, the Seahawks are in uncharted territory as far as recent seasons are concerned, and Carroll and company essentially have nothing left to lose at this point in terms of trying to snap their ugly losing skid. As such, I see them letting it fly on offense early with a crew that’s simply too talented to continue to struggle to score points for much longer.
The Niners have allowed an average of just 7.8 points in the first half on their travels this season, but Seattle has averaged 12.3 points in the first half per home tilt. Getting the offense back on track is a priority regardless of whether Seattle has realistic postseason chances or not, and I see that leading to a total of at least 13 points in the first two quarters.
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