Albert Nguyen, also known as the Analytics Capper, is back with some analytics wisdom and betting tips to help you with your 2021 PGA Championship Bet Preview. See which golf major betting picks you should make in this 2021 PGA Championship Preview for the event at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort in South Carolina.
This week, PGA players will be heading to Kiawah Island, South Carolina for the 2021 PGA Championship. It will be the second time the venue has hosted this major championship event and the longest course in major championship history.
Similar to how the three-point shot has revolutionized basketball, outrageous driving distances have lengthened these courses to obscene numbers. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort will play at a record-breaking 7,786 yards. Not only will distance play a major factor this week, but the coastal location will also influence how players attack these holes as well.
With that in mind, let’s focus on a few key metrics from PGA.com that will be important as you look into the field for your 2021 PGA Championship Bets.
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2021 PGA Championship Bet Preview: Tips, Picks & Predictions
2021 PGA Championship Bet Tips: Driving Distance
I normally don’t put a huge emphasis on Driving Distance, but this week is different. When there are six holes measured over 500 yards, you’re going to have to hit the big stick well and you’re going to have to hit it far. For players like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy who routinely blast the ball over 300 yards, they will have a huge advantage as they walk up to their second shots.
2021 PGA leaders in Driving Distance (Image: PGA.com)
Driving Accuracy
It doesn’t matter how long you are off the tee if you aren’t putting the ball in places to succeed. It’s paramount this week to also look at the most accurate drivers on tour, since the driver will be pulled from the bag early and often throughout the round. Anything above 70% is elite, which is where some of the world’s top golfers like Abraham Ancer and Webb Simpson live.
2021 PGA leaders in Driving Accuracy (Image: PGA.com)
Strokes Gained Off The Tee
Another fine measure of how well a player is driving the ball is the amount of strokes he gains for each tee shot he hits. There’s a great motto, “drive for show, putt for dough," but it’s been statistically proven that the most important shot to ensure you give yourself the best possibility at a low score is the very first shot of each hole. This is another category where you see Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy in the top 5.
Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee leaders for 2021 (Image: PGA.com)
Approaches From Over 200 Yards
With the longest course ever in a major, players are going to have extremely long approach shots onto the green. Not every par 4 or par 5 will be straightforward with a short iron in their hands for their second shots, as this course will require strategic decisions of when to go for it versus when to lay it up. Bryson DeChambeau again rates highly here, as do Tyrrell Hatton and Paul Casey.
PGA leaders in Approaches From Over 200 Yards for 2021 (Image: PGA.com)
GIR Percentage From Over 200 Yards
A sister metric to the previous category, this one highlights the percentage of those balls landing and staying on the green. This shows not only a player’s consistency with their middle-to-long irons, but also their ball-striking skills and subsequent ball flights. It’s hard to stop a ball on the putting surface from 200+ yards away, and these guys are the best to do it.
Being some of the cleanest hitters of the ball, the trajectory these guys create with the ball allows it to land softly on the green. Not surprisingly, Charley Hoffman and Bubba Watson are close to the top in this category.
2021 PGA leaders in GIR Percentage From Over 200 Yards (Image: PGA.com)
Par 3 Efficiency 225-250 Yards
Every par 3 this week will be over 200 yards — some well over 200 yards. No offense to TPC Craig Ranch, but there will be no sub-105 yard par 3 for the players to salivate over like they did at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Accordingly, it’s worth focusing on the best long par 3 players are in the game this season.
The 2021 Masters Champion, Hideki Matsuyama, has always hit his iron shots purely rates among the best here. His putting might be hot and cold, but he should have some nice setups on these difficult and lengthy par 3s. I think the player who scores the best in the par 3s this week will go on to win the tournament, making Matsuyama a strong betting choice.
Par 3 Efficiency 225-250 Yards leaders for 2021 (Image: PGA.com)
2021 PGA Championship Bet Tips: Best Picks
Based on the numbers, all the names mentioned above have a good chance to provide a nice return on your 2021 PGA Championship Bets. Here are the ones I like the most:
Favorites
- Rory McIlroy (+1100)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
Middle Tier
- Scottie Scheffler (+4000)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+5000)
Longshots
- Cameron Champ (+12500)
- Carlos Ortiz (+15000)
