It is possible that the most important and most intriguing regular season football game of the season will be played this week.
Buffalo and Kansas City, two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and come out of the AFC, will pair on Sunday night. At the moment, the Bills look like perhaps the best team in all of football after a slow start.
But Week 5 is plentiful in options. When it comes to prop betting, there are always options no matter how good (or not good) the game might be on paper.
Last week, our results were mixed. I pegged a closer game between New England and Tampa Bay, and that the lead would never be greater than 16.5 points. But I whiffed on the Vikings, whose offense ultimately stalled.
As for Week 5, time to make you money.
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NFL Week 5 Best Prop Bets
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
I might be more excited for this game than I should be, although that’s not slowing down my enthusiasm. As someone who loves both new and old in the NFL, watching Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers throw darts for three hours is something I absolutely must see.
The fact that this point spread is only three points speaks to how far the Bengals have come in a short period of time. And yes, it speaks to the confidence sportsbooks have in the team’s star QB, who is still less than a year removed from a major knee injury.
And the Total? A cool 50.5. This game could be a great deal of fun.
Cincinnati Bengals Over 2.5 Touchdowns (-130) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
This is one of my favorite plays on the board, even with running back Joe Mixon battling an ankle sprain.
While Green Bay’s defense played well last week, it did so against the Steelers. This will be the toughest matchup this unit has faced since Week 1, and I believe the Bengals offense will find a way to find the end zone just enough.
Cincinnati Bengals Over 3.5 Points 1st Quarter (+105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Let the Burrow show commence.
That will indeed be a theme against the Packers, and I expect it to be a theme early on. Given the team’s solid start, home field should continue to serve the home team well. Look for the Bengals to get a touchdown on the board in the first 15 minutes.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers look, well, cooked.
Specifically, Ben Roethlisberger looks cooked. The hits, snaps and years of playing football have certainly taken their toll, and it’s shown in his play.
Still, the Steelers are a small favorite against the Broncos despite entering the game with a 3-1 start. Granted, the three wins came against the Jaguars, Jets and Giants, but last week’s loss against the Ravens, which was largely without offense, felt like a more appropriate snapshot of where this team is.
Denver Broncos Lowest Scoring Team (+1000) at DraftKings
Wager: .5 Unit
Whether it’s Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock, I’m comfortable fading the Broncos’ offense in Week 5. A week removed from scoring only seven points, I believe this trend continues on the road.
The Steelers have played some of the NFL’s best offenses, and the defense has held up reasonably well. While offense will be tough to come by, the D does its part. Aiming for value with 10/1.
Under 4.5 Touchdowns (-135) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Yes, it’s going to be ugly. While I would love to take a contrarian stance, I simply cannot.
The Total is 39.5, and this feels like an Under game all the way. If you’re into points and touchdowns and scoring, I have good news.
You’ll find it in other games.
Chicago Bears QBs Andy Dalton and Justin Fields aren’t likely to make up for the loss of running back David Montgomery in Week 5. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
I tried to get tickets to this game. I can report that seeing a football game in Las Vegas isn’t cheap.
The matchup itself is certainly not without intrigue. After three straight wins to start the year, the Raiders were unable to slow down Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Still, the offense showed some signs of life in the second half after falling behind early.
The Bears will likely be a revolving door at QB. And while Andy Dalton vs. Justin Fields makes for great content, the loss of running back David Montgomery to injury for at least a month is a bigger roster move in present time.
That’s a big weapon down for Chicago, and it’ll likely show.
Chicago Bears Under 2.5 Touchdowns (-180) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
The questions at QB, the loss of a key contributor, the issues on the offensive line and more all point me toward the Under.
Also, this is a team that has scored 20 total points on the road this season. I expect those struggles to continue regardless of who takes the snaps.
Chicago Bears Less Than 19.5 Points (-180) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Well, the reasoning above says it all, no?
While I could diversify, I will lean into fading the Bears. Also, hopefully I can take my earnings from these wins and buy a ticket next time.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
While the anticipation surrounding Tom Brady vs. his former team reached a boiling point, it’ll be hard for another game this year to meet the hype I feel heading into this specific matchup.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are poised to put on a show. And with a Total of 56.5 — a number that feels almost college football-esque — this is a Sunday Night Football matchup that could end sometime Monday morning.
Of late, the Bills have looked dominant. But Kansas City, fresh off a win over the Eagles, is always a threat when Mahomes is upright.
Over 6.5 Touchdowns (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Will the hype be matched by the game itself? Yes, I believe it will.
Although the Buffalo defense has played well of late, playing on the road against Kansas City will be a much taller task than playing the Texans. Allen and Mahomes each score three, and we get at least two more on the ground. Cozy cash.
Buffalo Bills Highest Scoring Team (+1200) at DraftKings
Wager: .5 Unit
The Kansas City defense has allowed at least 24 points in all four games, and that theme is likely to continue. With that, I’m taking a stab at Buffalo being the highest scoring team of the week.
As the sixth selection on the board, 12/1 strikes me as solid value. The Bills will win, and they will do so in a major way.
