After a 1-1 split to start the World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros, the next three games will be played in Truist Park, the home of the Braves.
If the Braves are able to win out at home, Atlanta won’t have to worry about traveling back to Houston for Games 6 and 7. Getting a sweep at home won’t be easy, though, and the Braves will want to at least leave Atlanta with a 3-2 lead.
Starting pitching depth has been a bit of a problem in this year’s World Series. Overs continue to hit at an all-time rate in the postseason and more and more pitchers are getting injured.
Anyway, let’s get into our World Series Game 3 predictions and best bets. Please note that all Astros vs Braves odds and lines are current as of 9am Friday, October 29.
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Astros vs Braves World Series Game 3 Prediction
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, October 29, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Luis Garcia, Astros (11-8, 3.30 ERA)
- Ian Anderson, Braves (9-5, 3.58 ERA)
The World Series is tied at one apiece as we head to Truist Park for three straight games in Atlanta’s home ballpark. The Braves will send out Ian Anderson, who has been masterful in the postseason throughout his short career. This postseason, Anderson has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched, and has led the Braves to victory in all three of his starts despite pitching fewer than six innings in all of them.
Anderson has a 4.37 xFIP over the last 30 days with an 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate, so he hasn’t been quite as good as his surface stats indicate. He’s also had some trouble getting lefties out via the strikeout. Of the last 31 left-handed hitters he’s faced, he’s struck out just 6.5 percent of them.
On the plus side for Anderson, the Astros only have three lefties in their lineup, albeit very good ones in Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. Still, the Astros haven’t exactly been world-beaters against right-handed pitching the last 30 days (.197 ISO, .323 wOBA).
Meanwhile, Luis Garcia will take the mound for the Astros. He’s coming off the best outing of his career, holding the Boston Red Sox to one hit in 5.2 innings of work with seven strikeouts and just one walk. Prior to that game, though, Garcia had allowed 10 runs in just 3.2 innings over his first two postseason starts.
Garcia’s 3.61 xFIP over those 3.2 innings shows he wasn’t nearly as bad as the line might indicate. Still, he walked six batters in those 3.2 innings. Putting that many baserunners on doesn’t make it easy to escape without damage.
Lefties are absolutely mashing Garcia over the last 30 days (.505 wOBA, .469 ISO). Righties also have a .185 ISO against Garcia. With the Braves projected lineup having a 28.9 percent line drive rate the last 30 days vs. RHP, there’s a good chance the Braves hit the ball hard and for power in Game 3.
World Series Game 3 Pick: Braves 5, Astros 3
Braves vs Astros Best Bets
Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (-111) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
At the end of the day, Ian Anderson is the better pitcher. This game could be a walkfest between Anderson and Garcia, but Anderson has been so clutch in postseason play and continues to give the Braves a chance to win games when he starts. The strikeouts aren’t great against lefties, but Anderson is only going to have to face three lefties, giving him a higher chance at producing strikeouts in this game.
Meanwhile, lefties like Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman and Joc Pederson should be able to take Luis Garcia yard. The righties might, too, including Austin Riley.
Read all of our 2021 World Series Game 3 Betting Tips
Best Bet: Luis Garcia Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108) at FanDuel
Wager: 1 Unit
While I think Garcia will get shelled, after watching last week, it’s hard not to acknowledge his strikeout potential. Garcia struck out seven Red Sox in 5.1 innings and looked absolutely locked in. The Braves are a huge boom or bust team. This team is hitting nearly 29 percent of line drives while striking out nearly 27 percent of the time, and that’s not including the pitcher’s spot.
Garcia is going to allow some hits but he’ll also get some strikeouts against this Braves lineup.
Best Bet: Eddie Rosario Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Eddie Rosario has a .267 ISO and .444 wOBA with just an 8.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching. He swings the bat, too (8.2% walk rate the last 30 days; 6.3% walk rate this season), so despite Garcia’s recent proclivity for walks, we know Rosario is going to be aggressive.
Also, Rosario is now leading off for the Braves, which means more opportunity to slug against Garcia (or any other Houston righty that pitches in Game 3), who again, has been getting demolished by lefties over the last month (.505 wOBA, .469 ISO).
