Among this weekend’s can’t-miss college football games is a Big Ten matchup between No. 4 Penn State (5-0) and USC (3-2) on Saturday, Oct. 12, at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Nittany Lions picked up another one-sided victory this past week, downing UCLA 27-11 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score suggests. The Trojans, on the other hand, went from the No. 11 team in the country to falling out of the top 25 following a 24-17 loss at Minnesota.
Below are the latest Penn State vs USC odds for Week 7, plus my best bets and predictions for this conference clash.
Penn State vs USC Odds
College football odds are current as of Monday, Oct. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Penn State (-218) vs USC (+180)
- Spread: Penn State -5.5 (-108) vs USC +5.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) / Under 48 (-110)
Penn State vs USC Prediction
Penn State 27, USC 17
The Nittany Lions had an underwhelming showing against Bowling Green in Week 2, but otherwise, this team looks like a genuine title contender. The defense remains elite — Penn State is allowing just 11.4 points per game — and QB Drew Allar has seemingly taken the next step in his progression.
USC, on the other hand, has been all over the place. The Trojans took down LSU in their opener and nearly took down Michigan on the road, but costly turnovers kept them from taking what should’ve been a winnable game against Minnesota.
To the Trojans’ credit, the defense has been dramatically better this season than it was over the last two. This team has not had an easy schedule, and yet, they’ve held three Big Ten opponents and an SEC contender to an average of 23 points per game.
USC has not faced a defense of Penn State’s caliber yet, though, which will likely be the reason why it falls to 3-3 on Saturday. Even if it manages to slow down a surprisingly solid and creative Nittany Lions offense, I can’t count on the Trojans to make timely plays against such a dangerous unit.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Penn State vs USC Best Bets
Penn State -5.5 (-108) vs USC
Penn State only being favored by 5.5 points — even on the road — is a pretty astonishing lack of credit. It’s fair to say the Nittany Lions have underachieved in recent years, but this is the No. 4 team in the country, and they’ve earned that ranking.
USC is pretty great as far as unranked teams go, but it’s clear they still have some growing to do with Miller Moss under center. He’s shown potential, but the turnovers have hurt, and he still has relatively young skill position players around him. Top wideouts Ja’Kobi Lane and Duce Robinson are sophomores.
This is a big opportunity for Penn State to show its strength, and I think it’ll show on both sides of the ball. Lock in the Nittany Lions to cover as 5.5-point favorites with your college football bet of the day.
Under 48 Points (-110)
This will only be Penn State’s second road game of the season, but the defense traveled well in the first in a win over West Virginia, limiting the Mountaineers to 246 yards and 12 points. The Nittany Lions are also trending toward the Under on the season, hitting the Over in just one of their first five games.
The Trojans have also been in lower-scoring games than expected, with Overs going 2-3 and missing the line by an average of 5.1 points. This offense certainly has the potential to pop off, but it’s been held in check several times, and the defense is improved.
I might consider taking the Over if this total drops down to 45 or so points, but based on where it currently stands, the Under looks like the way to go. Penn State is usually involved in slower, low-scoring games, and I believe they’ll dictate the pace on Saturday.
