One of the more intriguing matchups of this week’s college football slate sees No. 6 Miami (6-0) taking on unranked Louisville (4-2) this Saturday, Oct. 19, at noon ET.
The Hurricanes have the No. 1 offense in the nation, but a pair of tight finishes in their most recent games has cast some doubt on their chances of remaining undefeated. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been ranked as high as No. 15, but narrow losses to Notre Dame and SMU have dropped them out of the AP Top 25.
Could we see one of the country’s top teams go down this weekend? Here are the latest Miami vs Louisville odds, plus my predictions and best bets for this ACC clash.
Miami vs Louisville Odds
College football odds are current as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Miami (-198) vs Louisville (+164)
- Spread: Miami -5 (-108) vs Louisville +5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 61 (-112) / Under 61 (-108)
Miami vs Louisville Prediction
Miami 33, Louisville 31
Miami has a perfect record, but to say those wins have all come easily would be an exaggeration. The Hurricanes have had struggles with ACC competition, needing touchdowns inside the final two minutes to defeat both Virginia Tech and California.
Louisville has an argument for being one of the best unranked teams in the nation, so Miami can’t afford to take this matchup lightly. The Cardinals lost by exactly seven points each to Notre Dame (No. 12 in the latest AP Top 25) and SMU (No. 21), proving they can contend with top competition.
With that said, slowing down this high-powered Hurricanes offense won’t be easy. QB Cam Ward leads the country with 2,219 passing yards and 23 total touchdowns, pacing a team that has scored at least 38 points in each game thus far.
Miami makes a lot of mistakes, though, which could be its undoing against Louisville. Limiting penalties and turnovers will be key. Those factors help give the Cardinals a genuine chance of winning, but in any case, I like them to at least make this a one-score game.
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Miami vs Louisville Best Bets
Louisville +5 (-112) vs Miami
Based on what we’ve seen from the Hurricanes in their last two outings, it’s hard to be confident about their chances of covering as 5-point favorites on the road. Miami could easily be 4-2 right now, and it’s important that we don’t discount the Cardinals just because they’re unranked.
Louisville has been solid on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 22nd in scoring and 31st in points allowed per game. Opponents have had much more success scoring on the ground than through the air, and on offense, the Cards have gotten efficient play from QB Tyler Shough (14 TD, 3 INT).
If Louisville plays a clean game, it will be in position to cover, if not win outright. I’m still not sold on the Hurricanes as a whole, so I’m backing the Cardinals as 5-point underdogs with my college football bet of the day.
Over 61 Points (-112)
Miami is one of three FBS teams that hasn’t seen the Under hit in a single game this season. I’ve already touched on how dynamic this offense has been, but the Canes have also struggled on defense in recent weeks, which helps drive up the score. Miami has allowed 36 points per game against ACC opponents.
Louisville’s games have also favored the Over, with four of their first six exceeding the projected scoring total. The Cardinals are scoring just over 36 points per game and gave up 30-plus to Notre Dame and SMU, so the precedent is there for the Hurricanes to run rampant.
Regardless of the outcome, I like this one to go Over 61 points. It’s a high total, but it’s justified.
