The Providence Friars will hit the road, fresh off a Big East regular-season title, looking to finish the season with a win against the Villanova Wildcats.
The Friars are currently 24-3 on the season, but one of those three losses came against Villanova at home earlier this year. Providence has been closing out tight games all season long and has been extremely lucky, per KenPom. However, against Villanova, the luck ran out, losing 89-84.
Although Providence is currently ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, the Friars are big underdogs against Villanova tonight.
Here are my picks and predictions for the Big East battle between the Providence Friars and Villanova Wildcats.
Please note that all college basketball odds and lines are current as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 1.
Providence vs. Villanova Predictions
The Friars have been good at closing games out, winning three overtime games in conference play, and they have just two losses in Big East play all season long.
However, the luck will soon run out, especially against premier teams like Villanova. The Wildcats are allowing just 31.7 percent from three and 48.1 percent from inside the arc this season on the defensive end. The defense has been good enough with such an elite offense.
Villanova is also earning 19 percent of turnovers and limiting offensive rebounds to 27.2 percent on the season. When combined with a highly efficient offense, Villanova is hard to defeat.
The Wildcats are knocking down 36.5 percent from downtown while also hitting 50.8 percent from inside and the nation-best 82.7 percent from the foul line. Villanova has also limited turnovers to just 15.7 percent and should have success on the offensive glass, earning 30.9 percent of offensive rebounds.
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Providence loves to get points at the line. But Villanova has done well-limiting fouls this season and should be able to keep the Friars away from the charity stripe more times than not in tonight’s game.
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The Friars are shooting 34.9 percent from three and 50.2 percent from inside the arc. On the glass, the Friars have earned 30.1 percent of offensive rebounds, but Villanova has been slightly better on the defensive glass in comparison to Providence.
On the offensive end, it’s been Nate Watson leading the charge, as he’s averaging 14 points per game while shooting 56.3 percent from the field. In the first meeting against Villanova, Watson scored 20 points and got to the line 12 times.
For Villanova, the best player in that first game was Collin Gillespie, who averages 16.6 points per game. Gillespie went off for 33 points while nailing 5-of-8 from downtown in the slugfest. Villanova has a light rotation of mainly six guys. Providence is a little bit deeper but not better.
Providence vs. Villanova Prediction: Villanova 82, Providence 70
Providence will look to close out the season with a win as they head on the road to take on Villanova. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Providence vs. Villanova Best Bet
Best Bet: Villanova -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
The Villanova Wildcats are an elite offense, and if its defense can start to improve slightly, the Wildcats will be an NCAA Tournament contender.
Villanova should be able to limit turnovers and have more success on the offensive glass. On the other hand, Providence needs to get to the line to be successful offensively. Villanova has done well limiting fouls throughout the season, and that should continue on its home floor.
I expect Villanova will take more threes in this game and hit at a higher rate. I’m not going to say Providence is checked out, but after already winning the regular-season title, this game is somewhat meaningless.
I’m sure these two teams will see each other again in the Big East Tournament, but for now, Villanova will have its way against Providence.
