There’s been a distinct lack of upsets in this year’s NCAA Tournament, but to say there hasn’t been any “madness" would be a flat-out lie. Saturday’s Final Four matchups were heavy on the chaos, and they delivered fans an excellent matchup for Monday’s national championship (8:50 p.m. ET, CBS).
Florida (35-4) took down SEC rival Auburn, 79-73, despite facing an eight-point deficit at the break. Standout guard Walter Clayton Jr. rose to the occasion with a stellar performance, dropping 34 points on an efficient 11-for-18 shooting from the field.
In the late window, Houston (35-4) earned its 18th consecutive victory with a come-from-behind win over Duke, 70-67. The Cougars held the Blue Devils to just one made field goal over the final 10:30 and used a 9-0 run in the final 33 seconds to seal the deal, showcasing their top-ranked defense.
Tonight, a champion is crowned. Let’s go over our best bets and predictions for Florida vs Houston.
Florida vs Houston Odds
Florida is a 1-point favorite over Houston, essentially making this a toss-up, per the latest NCAAB odds. The Over/Under is set at 140.5 points, seemingly taking the Cougars’ stout defense into account.
Florida vs Houston Prediction
Houston 81, Florida 74
I was ready to write Houston off. This team had seriously underachieved in its previous two trips to the NCAA Tournament, and I wasn’t sold on this year’s group faring any better. But the way in which the Cougars have won their last two games — dismantling Tennessee and doing the impossible against Duke — has made me change my stance.
When Houston is on, it’s the best team in the nation. The defense is second-to-none. Their three-point shooters are unbelievably efficient. And, most importantly, their guards have what it takes to rival Florida’s.
Clayton may well be the most outstanding player in the tournament, but we saw how well the Cougars managed to exhaust Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils. You don’t hold your opponent to one made shot in the final 10 minutes of a game by accident. And in a tournament that is ultimately about endurance, Houston ranks supreme.
With that said, I disagree that this will be a low-scoring game. Houston’s defense is second-to-none, but the offense played at a much more frantic pace in the second half of its win over Duke, and it’ll likely need to do the same to avoid scoring droughts against a prolific Florida offense that’s only been held under 70 points once this year.
Florida vs Houston Best Bets
Houston (-105) vs Florida
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Clayton’s legendary run has drawn comparisons to former UConn star Kemba Walker’s in 2011, but I’ll take things a step further and compare the Cougars to 2024’s Huskies that cruised to victory over Purdue in last year’s national championship.
Houston’s victories haven’t been quite as one-sided as UConn’s were, but like the Huskies, the Cougars work so hard on both ends of the floor that even the smallest deficits often feel insurmountable. Two points feel like four. And while I won’t quite call this a home game, it’s worth noting that Houston is far closer to San Antonio than Gainesville.
So long as Houston can limit mistakes and win the battle on the glass — two things it’s incredibly well-equipped to do — it should come out on top. Back Houston to cut down the nets with your best college basketball bet today.
Over 140.5 Points (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned, I’d be surprised to see this game finish Under 140.5 points. Houston came out with some serious urgency in the second half of its win over Duke, and I don’t see LJ Cryer and co. looking back against a lesser defense.
And while this Cougars defense ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, it could easily give up 70-plus to the Gators. Florida is well-rounded and routinely scores well into the 80s, and unlike the Blue Devils, it’s led by three senior guards.
