The Big 12 is the toughest College Basketball conference according to KenPom’s conference ratings. With only ten teams, seven of those teams are likely to make the March Madness tournament. Four teams in the conference are ranked in the AP Top 25 poll: Kansas (No. 6), Baylor (No. 7), Texas Tech (No. 11), and Texas (No. 20).
On Wednesday night, Texas Tech and Baylor will play in what should be an epic showdown.
In their first meeting at Baylor, TTU won 65-62 to give a then undefeated Bears team its first loss. Now at home, the Red Raiders have opened as a 1-point favorite.
With both teams looking to make a March Madness run, the question is if Baylor can avoid getting swept by Texas Tech this season.
Please note that all college basketball odds are current as of 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 15.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Predictions
Baylor has played an unforgiving schedule that ranks as the 23rd toughest slate in the country. For non-conference games, the Bears beat Michigan State and Villanova, but lost to Alabama.
In conference play, Baylor has faced an even stronger schedule. The Bears lost to Texas Tech and Kansas. Up until last weekend against Texas, the Bears had yet to beat a Top 25 conference opponent.
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Outside of their matchups with Texas Tech and Villanova, Baylor has come out firing in games this season. Against Texas last weekend, they scored 80 points on 52 field goal attempts. Against Kansas, they scored only 59 points despite putting up 71 shots.
If Texas Tech can limit Baylor’s field goal percentage, they’ll win. Kansas held Baylor to only 29.6% from the field. In the previous game between Baylor and Texas Tech, the Bears scored only 65 points on 41.1% shooting.
Texas Tech has allowed opposing teams to have only a 45.7% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 24th in the country. Most importantly, they have the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Bears have the seventh-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, so they will test the Red Raiders on their home court. It will be a tough game for both teams, but I believe we should see a one-possession game that Texas Tech ultimately wins.
Baylor vs Texas Tech Prediction: Texas Tech 63, Baylor 61
Texas Tech forward Bryson Williams came up big in his team’s win over Baylor in January. Can he lead the Red Raiders to another win at home? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Baylor vs Texas Tech Best Bet
Best Bet: Under 136 Points (-110) at Caesars (Would bet up to 133)
Wager: 1 Unit
I believe that at Texas Tech, both teams are evenly matched. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers agree with my conclusion.
Like the geniuses that set college basketball lines, I agree that we will see a strong defensive performance from both teams on Wednesday night. The difference is I see an even lower scoring game than the 136 point total suggests.
In the last meeting between both teams, only 127 points were scored. TTU’s game plan is going to be to stop Baylor on offense, and Baylor has a strong defense as well. It will be a sweat, but I have a hard time seeing how more than 136 points are scored.
