Amid a college basketball season dominated by the SEC, it’s only right that two of the conference’s heavyweights will meet in the Final Four. Florida (34-4) will take on Auburn (32-5) this Saturday, April 5, at 6:09 p.m. ET to determine the first of two combatants in this year’s men’s March Madness tournament.
The Gators are fresh off a back-and-forth 84-79 victory over 3-seed Texas Tech. Standout senior Walter Clayton Jr. scored a game-high 30 points, including a three-pointer that put Florida up for good with under a minute to play.
The Tigers, on the other hand, used a 17-0 run in their 70-64 win against 2-seed Michigan State to advance to their first Final Four since 2019. Johni Broome had a double-double by halftime and finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds, but an injury that forced him to miss part of the second half could be cause for concern.
Florida vs Auburn Odds
Florida is installed as a 2.5-point favorite, per the latest NCAAB odds. Broome’s health status could certainly be playing a role here, but the Gators also beat the Tigers — on the road, no less — back in early February. This will be the second matchup between the two this year.
The Over/Under is set at 160.5 points, an indication that oddsmakers expect a high-scoring game. Florida and Auburn combined for 171 points earlier this season, but given the atmosphere and Broome’s injury, this total could continue to dip.
Florida vs Auburn Prediction
Florida 78, Auburn 72
Broome has said that he’ll be ready for the Final Four, but even if he’s close to full strength, it’s difficult to pick against Florida in this spot. If the Gators can beat the Tigers on their home floor, one would have to assume they can do the same on a neutral court, no?
The key difference in Florida’s head-to-head victory was three-point shooting. The Gators went 13-for-33 (39.4%) from beyond the arc, while Auburn shot 7-for-22 (31.8%). The Tigers made more two-pointers, but they weren’t particularly efficient, shooting 23-for-48 (47.9%) to Florida’s 58.1% on 31 attempts.
I’m also a firm believer that you need great guards to win in March, and the Gators have the clear edge in that department. Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard make for a terrific trio, and it’s no surprise that they’ve done the bulk of the heavy lifting throughout the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn has had an impressive run, but ultimately, it looks like Bruce Pearl’s squad will come up just short once more.
Florida vs Auburn Best Bets
Florida -2.5 (-115) vs Auburn
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Florida has one of the best overall records in college basketball this year, and it’s been nearly as successful against the spread, going 27-11 (71.1%). Only four teams covered at a higher rate than the Gators have.
They haven’t just gotten a boost at home, either — Florida is 9-3 ATS when playing at a neutral site, and they’ve gone 12-0 outright in such games, too.
Considering Broome’s injury and the Gators’ head-to-head victory at Auburn, I won’t hesitate to pick Florida to cover as 2.5-point favorites with my best college basketball bet today.
Under 160.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Overs are 4-0 in Florida’s NCAA Tournament games, and as mentioned above, these teams put up 171 points when they last met on Feb. 8. Auburn has seen the Under hit in three of its four March Madness matchups, though, and with Broome playing through an injury, this offense likely won’t be at its best.
- See our Houston vs Duke Predictions for more March Madness betting tips.
The Tigers haven’t allowed more than 70 points in an NCAA Tournament game thus far, and while I feel that streak will be broken on Saturday, this should still be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.
