No. 1 UConn (35-3) will face off with No. 4 Alabama (25-11) for a chance to advance to the NCAA National Championship this Saturday, April 6, at 8:49 p.m. ET.
The Huskies’ arrival at this stage was hardly unexpected, and they’ve put themselves in a strong position to potentially repeat as champions. The Crimson Tide, however, were far from a popular pick. Nonetheless, they are more than deserving of their place among the Final Four.
Will UConn or Alabama prevail in this unexpected showdown? Here are our best bets and predictions for this weekend’s Final Four action.
UConn vs Alabama Odds
Given their dominance throughout the NCAA Tournament, it should come as no surprise to see the Huskies listed as 12-point favorites per the latest NCAAB odds. UConn has won its first four games by at least 17 points each, including a 25-point victory over No. 3 Illinois in the Elite 8.
Oddsmakers have nearly reached a consensus on the Over/Under at 160.5 points. These are two of college basketball’s highest-scoring teams, but the Huskies haven’t allowed more than 58 points in a single tournament game, so this may still be too high.
UConn vs Alabama Prediction
UConn 84, Alabama 68
I’m a firm believer that Alabama will be UConn’s most challenging opponent yet, but how much does that really mean when the Huskies appear to be in a league of their own? Dan Hurley’s side has won their first four games by roughly 28 points apiece and looked virtually untouchable.
The Crimson Tide have a terrific team and perhaps college basketball’s most dynamic offense, averaging 90.6 points per game. They take — and make — three-pointers at a prolific rate and play at a lightning-fast pace, ranking ninth in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
- See our March Madness Final Four Best Bets.
However, UConn is arguably every bit as good defensively as Alabama is on offense, ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing just 63.3 points per game. The Huskies hound the perimeter and protect the rim exceptionally well, and they don’t send opponents to the free-throw line too often.
Ultimately, Alabama simply lacks the all-around depth and talent on both ends of the floor to keep up with UConn. This one will be over as soon as the Huskies decide so.
UConn vs Alabama Best Bets
UConn -11.5 (-110) vs Alabama
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
UConn looks unstoppable right now, and I’m in no place to pick against them. The Huskies have also played exceptionally well against ranked opponents this season, going 9-2 against the spread and straight-up.
Alabama is trending up lately thanks to its excellent play in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s still just 3-7 ATS against ranked teams in 2023-24. All too often, the Crimson Tide’s lackluster defense has been their downfall.
That’s likely to be the case in this Final Four showdown as well, which is why I’m locking in UConn -11.5 with my best college basketball bet today.
Under 160.5 Points (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
No team has hit the Over more often than Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have pushed games beyond the projected total in 27 out of 36 tries, clearing it by an average of 7.8 points per game.
With that said, the Huskies just limited the No. 2 team — Illinois — to 52 points in their last outing, which kept the total well Under the projection. The Fighting Illini came into that matchup with an Over record of 26-11, so they were also clearing the bar at an elite rate.
This could certainly end up being a shootout, but UConn’s defense is playing too well right now for me to consider the Over at 160.5 points.
