Well, I did say that one team would come into Tuesday’s Game 1 flat. It was just not the team I was expecting.
The Tampa Bay Rays committed four errors, walked six batters, and made several other uncharacteristic mistakes in their 4-0 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers. Now their season is on the line as they get set for Game 2.
The Rays will send Zach Eflin to the mound on Wednesday. Eflin’s 16 victories during the regular season tied him with Toronto’s Chris Bassitt for the most in the American League.
Texas will counter with Nathan Eovaldi. The former Ray tied for the Rangers team lead with 12 wins in just 25 starts this season.
Here are my predictions and best bets for Game 2 of this Wild Card series.
Rangers vs Rays Game 2 Prediction
Rays 4, Rangers 2
Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver once famously said that momentum was the next day’s starting pitcher. The Rays better hope that adage rings true, or else their season may be over after Wednesday.
Eflin has been one of the best hurlers in the Majors this season. Among 44 qualifiers, Eflin ranks third in both xFIP and xERA while finishing second in walk rate.
He also pitched some of his best baseball down the stretch. He posted a higher K-BB rate (28.4 percent) and a lower xFIP (2.69) in September than he did in any other month this year.
Eovaldi has struggled to regain his early-season form since returning from an elbow injury suffered in July. The 33-year-old went 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA in six September starts.
If Eovaldi were in better form, I might take the Rangers after what we witnessed on Tuesday. However, he has struggled, while Eflin has been excellent. I think the Rays will figure out a way to scratch together enough offense early to hold on for a victory and extend their season.
Rangers vs Rays Game 2 Best Bet
First Five Total Runs UNDER 4.5 (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook | Wager: 1 Unit
I expect Eflin to come out firing strikes and have success against this Rangers lineup.
Texas struggled offensively down the stretch, posting a .189 team batting average and 78 wRC+ over their final seven regular season games. Though they scored four runs in Game 1, they did so by capitalizing on multiple Rays mistakes. I anticipate a better effort and a cleaner game from the Rays in Game 2.
While Eovaldi has struggled down the stretch, he has had success against this Rays lineup. Eovaldi won both starts against Tampa this season, allowing four runs in 12.1 innings. He is a veteran who has proven he can handle the pressure of the postseason.
I think Tampa, in particular, will play this game close to the vest offensively. Look for them to try to manufacture a run early rather than play for the big inning. This strategy should contribute to limiting run production, which is why I am taking the F5 Under as my MLB Play of the Day.
Rangers vs Rays Game 2 Props
Rangers Team Total Under 3.5 (-111) at Rays
FanDuel Sportsbook | Wager: 1 Unit
Tampa Bay played about as sloppy a game as you will see from them in Game 1. They committed four errors and failed to secure at least two other catchable balls. Tyler Glasnow walked five batters in just five innings of work. Despite all that, Texas still only scored four runs.
Eflin hasn’t walked five hitters in a month since back in June. He may allow a run or two, but I do not think he will let this game get away from him.
Tampa has plenty of reinforcements in the bullpen to navigate through this lineup once Eflin is out of the ballgame. Assuming the Rays can put their defensive woes behind them in Game 2, I think they will hold Texas below this team total on Wednesday.
