The Philadelphia Phillies are one win away from advancing to the World Series following their 10-6 victory over the San Diego Padres on Saturday. Six home runs were hit during Game 4, including a pair by Phillies’ first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
Meanwhile, both starting pitchers were unable to escape the first inning in what turned out to be a battle of the bullpens. Unfortunately for the Padres, left-hander Sean Manaea allowed five runs over just 1 1/3 innings.
The Phillies will now send Zack Wheeler (1-1 1.40 ERA) to the mound on Sunday against Padres right-hander Yu Darvish (2-1 2.84 ERA) for Game 5 in Philadelphia.
Let’s look at current betting odds and determine the best bets and props for Game 5 between the Phillies and the Padres.
Padres vs Phillies Game 5 Odds
The Phillies are moderate home favorites for Game 5 against the Padres with the Over/Under currently set at just 6.5 runs.
Padres vs Phillies Game 5 Prediction
Phillies 3, Padres 2
Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA this postseason with strong peripheral statistics. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings in Game 1 versus the Phillies, while striking out 11.
The Padres ace carries a career 2.23 ERA and 0.98 WHIP against Philadelphia. However, Darvish will need to be careful around the red-hot Hoskins, who is 6-for-19 (.319) with a home run and two doubles against the 36-year-old. In addition, Bryce Harper is just 2-for-9 with a pair of long balls.
On the other side, Wheeler takes the mound for Philly after posting a 0.52 WHIP over three postseason starts. In Game 1 the right-hander was dominant, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out eight and allowing just one hit. Wheeler is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP against the Padres in seven career starts.
Game 5 is shaping up to be a pitchers’ duel following Saturday’s scoring bonanza. That said, I am backing the Phillies to win the series at home and move on to the World Series.
Padres vs Phillies Game 5 Best Bet
Phillies to Win & Zack Wheeler: 5+ Strikeouts (+115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 23 at 7 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
I do not want to touch the Over/Under at just 6.5 and the Phillies’ moneyline is a bit steep. Therefore I am going to take advantage of FanDuels Player Performance Doubles to justify those odds. All we need to do is attach Wheeler to strike out at least five batters, which he has already done against the Padres in Game 1.
Padres vs Phillies Game 5 Props
Rhys Hoskins: 2+Total Bases (+145) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 23 at 7 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, Hoskins is 6-for-19 (.319) with a home run and two doubles against Darvish. In addition, the Phillies’ first baseman has been swinging a hot bat and I would look for that to continue in Game 5.
MLB Championship Series Props
Previous: Padres vs Phillies Game 4 Prediction
Phillies 5, Padres 4
Philadelphia will look to take a commanding lead in the NLCS on Saturday, but will need a strong performance out of their 25-year-old southpaw to do it. Falter is expected to go just one time through the Padres’ order before turning the game over to the bullpen.
Falter posted a 3.86 ERA this season over 84 innings and has yet to pitch this postseason. The left-hander has had more success on the road this season (2.42 ERA) than at home at Citizens Bank Park (5.49 ERA), but did carry a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP after the All-Star break.
Not many hitters in the San Diego lineup have experience against Falter, but Josh Bell has certainly feasted during a small sample size. The former Nationals’ first baseman is 4-for-5 with two home runs, a double, and a walk versus the southpaw. It may be a good idea for Falter to pitch around Mr.Bell on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Padres will send Mike Clevinger to the mound. The 31-year-old struggled during his lone postseason appearance, allowing five runs (four earned) over 2 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Clevinger struggles mightily away from Petco Park this season (5.46 ERA) and did not perform well down the stretch (4.90 ERA post-All-Star break).
Like Falter, not many of the opposing hitters have much of a track record against Clevinger, with Nick Castellanos being the only one with over five at-bats (3-for-23).
This could be a shootout on Saturday between these two teams in Game 4, but I am leaning towards the Phillies to take a 3-1 lead in front of their home fans.
Padres vs Phillies Game 4 Best Bet
Over 8.5 Runs (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 22 at 7 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
It is difficult to choose a winner in Game 4, but there certainly seems to be a recipe for runs. Both Falter and Clevinger are at risk for a blowup in a hitters park, and we could be in for a scoring bonanza on Saturday.
Padres vs Phillies Game 4 Props
1st Half Total Runs: Over 4.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 22 at 7 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
If you really love an outfit, you should buy it in two colors. So we are going to double down on the Over and place a second wager on the first five innings to produce more than four runs.
Previous: Padres vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction
Padres 4, Phillies 2
In his first career postseason start, Suárez walked five batters while only retiring 10. This could have been a case of nerves, but it does not give me a warm feeling in my stomach going into Game 3 for the Phillies.
That said, during his only start against the Padres this season, the right-hander did limit San Diego to two runs over 7 1/3 innings, so it’s not all bad. However, Suárez is not a strikeout pitcher. This means that he is not well-equipped to deal with free passes, which may be the key to his success or failure on Friday.
Meanwhile, Musgrove has been close to unhittable in the postseason thus far, allowing two runs over 13 innings while limiting opposing batters to a .170 batting average.
I expect the Padres to take control of the series in Game 3 in a close game.
Padres vs Phillies Game 3 Best Bet
Padres Moneyline (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 29 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, the Padres have the advantage of the pitchers’ mound and I am willing to gamble on that alone with no other variables that jump off the page.
Suárez will need to prove he can handle the postseason before I give him the benefit of the doubt against someone like Musgrove.
Padres vs Phillies Game 3 Props
Joe Musgrove: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 20 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
Musgrove is fresh off an eight-strikeout performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, and ended the regular season by collecting at least six punchouts in three of his final four outings.
The Padres right-hander has come up big this postseason and I expect that continue against the Phillies in Game 3.
Previous Phillies vs Padres Game 2 Prediction
Padres 3, Phillies 2
Game 1 was a pitchers’ duel decided by timely hitting, which is exactly how I expect this entire series to go, including Game 2 between Nola and Snell.
The Phillies lineup does not have a great deal of experience against the Padres left-hander, with Jean Segura leading the way with just 16 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, most of the San Diego offense has limited exposure to Nola, with the exception of former Nationals Juan Soto (9-for-33) and Josh Bell (3-for-19). During Nola’s lone start against San Diego this season, he held the Padres to one run over seven frames with 10 strikeouts.
Either way, the starting pitchers appear to have the upper hand once again heading into this matchup.
I anticipate a low-scoring game decided by no more than two runs, with San Diego coming out on top. However, my best bet will focus on the score rather than the outcome.
Phillies vs Padres Game 2 Best Bet
Under 7 Runs (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I will again avoid the moneyline and the spread, given how close I expect this game to be.
Like Game 1, the Over/Under is where I would focus my attention for the second game. Philadelphia and San Diego have scored just 38 runs in eight games against each other this season, including the Phillies’ 2-0 win on Tuesday.
Phillies vs Padres Game 2 Props
Aaron Nola: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds posted are as of Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook.
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, Nola was able to punch out 10 Padres over seven frames during his latest outing against them. Given the way the Phillies’ ace has been pitching of late, including posting back-to-back six strikeouts performances in the postseason, the Over seems like an easy bet here.
Previous: Phillies vs Padres Game 1 Prediction
Phillies 3, Padres 2
The Phillies’ offense has been on a roll this postseason, and they may be hitting their stride at the right time to make a run to the World Series.
This all starts in Game 1 when they send Wheeler to the mound against Darvish, which should be a very exciting game. That said, I anticipate this entire series to be a massive pitcher’s duel broken up by timely hitting.
Both Josh Bell (.308) and Juan Soto (.290) have shared success against the Phillies right-hander in their career, while Rhys Hoskins (.668 slugging) has been able to get to Darvish. However, not much else stands out from a matchup’s perspective that would lead me to believe there is anything but a pitcher’s duel coming.
Besides Hoskins, Darvish has held the current Philadelphia lineup in check, while Wheeler has been on a fantastic run since his return from the injured list.
Phillies vs Padres Game 1 Best Bet
Under 7 Runs (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I expect the Phillies’ offense to be the difference-maker in Game 1. However, I would look to avoid the moneyline and spread, given how close this game is expected to be.
The Over/Under is where I would focus my attention, given that Philadelphia and San Diego have scored just 36 runs in 7 games against each other this season. That is an average of just 5.14 runs per game.
Phillies vs Padres Game 1 Props
Rhys Hoskins: 2+ Total Bases (+135) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, Hoskins has been successful against Darvish over a small sample size, going 6-for-18 (.375) with a home run and two doubles. The Phillies’ first baseman is hitting just .154 (4-for-26) this postseason, but he has managed to go yard while collecting one double so far.
At +135, this is a solid price to jump in on Hoskins starting off the NLCS with a bang.
Phillies vs Padres NLCS Prediction
Phillies Win NLCS 4-3 (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This should be a close series between two teams playing their best baseball of the season at the right time. However, the Phillies have the edge offensively, which could be enough to secure them a place in the World Series.
