The MLB playoffs continue Wednesday in Milwaukee as the Brewers face the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 2 in their best-of-three series.
The Brew Crew will look to even the series after losing Game 1 on Tuesday (6-3). Milwaukee will send Freddy Peralta to mound against Arizona’s Zac Gallen.
It’s win or go home for the Brewers. So, let’s dive into my prediction and best bets for Game 2 in this National League Wild Card Series.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 2 Prediction
Diamondbacks 3, Brewers 4
The Diamondbacks are sitting in a strong position, up 1-0 in a three-game series with their ace on the mound. However, Gallen has been a very different pitcher on the road than at home.
The 28-year-old carries a 4.42 ERA over 108 innings away from Chase Field, where he boasts an impressive 2.47 ERA over 102 frames. Gallen’s K-BB% is nearly 10 points lower on the road (25.6% vs 15.9%) with a HR/9 that is doubled (0.62 vs 1.25).
The good news for the Diamondbacks is that Gallen has already faced the Brewers on the road this season and posted seven innings of one-run ball, in addition to another strong performance at home (7 shutout innings on April 10).
That said, it’s difficult to completely ignore the right-hander’s lengthy track record away from Arizona. Plus, once Gallen leaves the game, the Diamondbacks are at a disadvantage in the bullpen.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has to feel good about their chances with Peralta on the mound. The 27-year-old carries a 3.44 ERA over 89 innings at home with a 0.94 WHIP and a .182 batting average against.
I like the Brewers to take Game 2 and even the series, forcing a deciding Game 3 on Thursday.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 2 Best Bet
Brewers ML (-126) vs Diamondbacks
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I expect this to be a very close game, but it is difficult to ignore Gallen’s struggles on the road, regardless of his early season success against Milwaukee.
Look for the Brew Crew to even up the series on Wednesday on the back of a strong performance from Peralta and a superior bullpen.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 2 Props
Christian Yelich: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Christian Yelich is slashing .294/.393/.489 against right-handed pitching this season with a 139 wRC+.
Conversely, Gallen sports a 4.75 FIP against left-handed hitters on the road and will turn the ball over to a bullpen that has been less than stellar all season long.
Yelich has blasted 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handers this season, in addition to 29 of his 34 doubles, so I’m backing the Brewers outfielder to make some noise in Game 2.
MLB Wild Card Props
Previous: Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 Prediction
Diamondbacks 3, Brewers 5
Pfaddt is going to face an uphill challenge in his postseason debut. The 24-year-old posted a 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP over 96 frames this year with a 1.41 WHIP and a .278 batting average against.
In addition, the Diamondbacks right-hander ranks in the bottom third of MLB in hard hit%, barrel%, and average exit velocity against.
Meanwhile, Burnes enters the game, having earned a 2.27 ERA since Aug. 29 with a 3.03 FIP and a 51.6% groundball rate. That sais, the 28-year-old performs better on the road and conceded seven earned runs over five innings during his latest run-in with Arizona on June 19.
However, it should be noted that Burnes shut out the Diamondbacks over eight frames back in April.
On the offensive side of the ball, Milwaukee comes in carrying a 107 wRC+ over the last 14 days with a .331 wOBA, while Arizona earned an 89 wRC+ during the same stretch.
I expect the Brewers to jump out to a one-game lead in the series due to their advantage on the pitcher’s mound from both Burnes and the bullpen.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 Best Bet
Brewers -0.5 F5 (-120) vs Diamondbacks
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, the Brewers have a solid advantage on the mound between Burnes and Pfaddt. Milwaukee should be able to leave the first five innings with a lead, making the F5 run line a solid play.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 Props
Brandon Pfaddt: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Diamondbacks rookie posted a mere 22.3% strikeout this season while ranking below average in whiff rate.
This will not cut it against a Brewers lineup boasting a 17.5% strikeout rate over the past two weeks with an 8.5% swinging strike rate.
In addition, Pfaddt will likely have a short leash during his postseason debut, making it all the more difficult for him to reach his strikeout prop.
