We’ve reached the end of the DFS regular season! It’s bittersweet, but Week 17 gives players more than enough to get excited about. We continue to get games for three days, with Saturday giving us one game instead of Monday.
Do not forget to check out all of The Game Day’s Week 17 fantasy football content. It’s the final week of the fantasy regular season, and all of their hard work deserves one last viewing.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Week 17 Thursday Night Football DFS: Jets @ Browns
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Thursday, Dec. 21, at 12:00 p.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Browns -7.5
- Total: 34 Points
New York has a decent amount of injuries. OT Duane Brown (back), QBs Aaron Rodgers (fraud) and Zach Wilson (concussion), and TE Jeremy Ruckert (concussion) are out. Israel Abanikanda (ankle, $2,200 on DraftKings), Greg Zuerlein (right quad, $4,600), and Allen Lazard (illness, $2,400) are questionable.
Cleveland will be without Dustin Hopkins (hamstring), DE Ogbo Okoronkwo (pectoral), and MLB Anthony Walker (knee) are out. P Corey Bojorquez (quad) is doubtful, while WRs Amari Cooper (heel), Marquise Goodwin (knee), and S Juan Thornhill (calf) are questionable.
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As if the 34-point implied game total was bad, it was higher earlier this week. That’s how bettors and sportsbooks view this game.
What we can look at and like is the return of Joe Flacco ($10,600) to relevancy after being stuck in Jets purgatory. Since taking over at quarterback for the Browns, the offense has a +7% Passing Rate Over Expectation, leaps and bounds ahead of where they were the first half of the season.
No surprise that Amari Cooper ($11,200) has seen the biggest uptick in production with Flacco, but it’s the emergence of David Njoku ($7,800) that has won DFS players some money of late. He has been second in target share with the elite QB, adding a new level of depth to a passing game that was starving for consistency.
The recent uptick in passing work has not taken away from Jerome Ford ($8,400) being a dependable, albeit capped running back. Ford is out-touching Kareem Hunt ($5,200) but is not flirting with 20 total touches like he was six-plus weeks ago.
The Jets continue to wallow in offensive purgatory with Trevor Siemian ($8,800), the latest subpar signal caller tasked with creating chicken salad from chicken … stuff.
What is great to see is Garrett Wilson ($9,800) and Breece Hall ($11,000) finding fantasy relevance more often than not. Hall’s Week 16 outburst helps even out his duds and should keep his fantasy floor for this game high enough to consider at Captain.
Wilson is stuck in a difficult matchup, so it’s another week in his up-and-down sophomore season.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Breece Hall with Jets DST and David Njoku
In Week 16, Hall was a handful of yards short of the rushing and receiving double bonus. As good as the Browns defense is, Hall’s elite explosiveness can turn a fantasy dud into a dandy with one run.
Captain Jerome Ford with Browns DST and Tyler Conklin
Conklin has the most difficult matchup of all Jets pass catchers according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, but his low aDOT and the Browns allowing three TE TDs over the past four games is a glimmer of hope.
Captain Amari Cooper with Joe Flacco and Jason Brownlee
Cooper has an unenviable matchup, but opportunity gives the veteran wideout a ceiling that is better than any other teammate. Brownlee’s recent usage and salary help alleviate Cooper’s price at CPT.
Captain David Njoku with Joe Flacco and Garrett Wilson
When not at CPT, I want Wilson paired with Njoku because of his ability to produce no matter the QB. Njoku CPT is my favorite play in part because of his top matchup among Cleveland pass catchers.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RB Pierre Strong Jr. ($1,800)
The Browns could shift more work to Strong on a short week and the playoffs looming. His five carries in Week 16 were his most since Week 8.
TE Kenny Yeboah ($200)
C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert are hurt, which opens Yeboah to some passing down looks. Ruckert had three multi-catch games in four weeks as the TE2 before leaving Week 16 with a concussion.
RB Israel Abanikanda ($2,200)
The rookie is seeing more reps as the Jets figure out what they have with their roster depth. Abanikanda should get the first series of the second quarter and any extra work in a blowout.
*Thursday Night Captain Picks
Breece Hall ($16,500)
Being a seven-point road underdog is far from ideal, but we have relevant game action showing Hall is the guy to get the lion’s share of all RB work short of an injury.
David Njoku ($11,700)
Njoku is probably as low as I’ll go at CPT. With Cooper and Elijah Moore dictating coverage outside, it will be up to Njoku to find a way to exploit New York’s safety tandem and add to their recent string of TE scoring allowed.
Jerome Ford ($14,400)
Ford has the best matchup of the Browns using schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. He is 21 yards shy of 1,000 scrimmage yards for the season, so there is an incentive for Ford to come out of the gates hot like he did in Week 16.
Week 17 Saturday DFS Showdown: Lions @ Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -6
- Total: 52 Points
Detroit heads to Jerry’s World without Brock Wright (hip, $600 on DraftKings), S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pec), and LB James Houston (ankle). CB Cameron Sutton (toe) is questionable.
Dallas will be without RB Rico Dowdle (ankle, $2,800) and DT Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle). OT Tyron Smith (back) and DE Viliami Fehoko (I.R., knee) are questionable.
It’s great to see an island game with two teams that can score in bunches. What is even better is both teams do it with a balanced plan. Dallas is 15th in passing play percentage, while Detroit is 23rd. The Cowboys have averaged a generous 39.9 points per game at home, while the Lions score 24.8 on the road. That’s a great number, but six below their home average, and neither three below their season average.
Dak Prescott ($10,600), CeeDee Lamb ($11,400), and the Dallas wideouts have top two matchups according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA metric. While it is a no-brainer to build around their passing attack, a pass-heavy Cowboys stack is going to be popular, especially with Tony Pollard ($7,800) continuing to struggle as a runner.
The Hankins injury plays into what the Lions want/need to do Week 17 - #EstablishIt. Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,200) and David Montgomery ($8,600) have combined for 30.38 PPR points per game over the past four games, with Gibbs dominating rushing and receiving TDs (5-2).
The two are nearly working in a 50/50 split, with Monty getting 56% of the total touches. That more than explains their similar pricing.
The big test for the Lions is creating space and opportunity for Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,000). Dallas would be arguably the best secondary if Trevon Diggs were healthy, but having the second-best corner in DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore playing at an elite level (and healthy) once again cures a lot of ailments.
The opportunistic Cowboys secondary has been burned (see: Metcalf, DK) and isn’t impenetrable. That keeps Josh Reynolds ($3,200), Jameson Williams ($3,400), and Kalif Raymond ($2,200) on the Showdown radar.
Favorite Saturday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Jahmyr Gibbs with Jared Goff and CeeDee Lamb
Gibbs is the high-priced pivot from ARSB at CPT. Dallas’s linebackers are more than beatable for the rookie.
Captain CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott and Sam LaPorta
Matchups don’t get much better for wideouts than facing the Lions. Lamb only has five games with fewer than nine targets.
Dak Prescott with Two Pass Catchers
This is a rostership stack. It’s easy to pair Prescott with Lamb and Brandin Cooks, but replacing at least one of them with any number of Cowboys targets adds uniqueness.
Captain Amon-Ra St. Brown with Jared Goff and Tony Pollard
A big day for Detroit could be on the backs of St. Brown and Goff, which means chunk pass potential for Pollard. He has four games with six or more receptions.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RBs Hunter Luepke ($800) and Deuce Vaughn ($1,000)
Luepke has been the active fullback for the majority of the season and only has recently received carries. Vaughn’s biggest game was Week 2 in a blowout win against the Jets (6.2 DK points). Both could lose leverage if their work is split in relief of Pollard.
KaVontae Turpin ($2,000)
The former USFL standout has been one of the best returners since entering the NFL in 2022, which has led to occasional targets on offense. Turpin has at least one target in all but three games that he has played.
*Saturday Night Captains
CeeDee Lamb ($17,100)
Sure, Lamb will be popular and expensive. But his talent, workload, and chemistry with Prescott means his leverage is being overweighed with him at CPT.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($13,800)
Detroit will need to utilize all the speed they have, especially when trying to neutralize the Cowboys pass rush. That is Gibbs’ calling card, and he’s gotten comfortable finding the endzone.
David Montgomery ($12,900)
If you enter 20-plus lineups in bigger GPPs, Montgomery deserves a seat at the CPT table. Detroit could gum up the game on purpose and force the Cowboys to stop their two-headed backfield, with Monty the battering ram that has tenderized plenty of defenses in his career.
Tony Pollard ($11,700)
The explosive plays aren’t there, but like Montgomery, a few Pollard CPT lineups make sense as leverage off the passing game. If Tyron Smith misses Week 17, Detroit’s pass rush has one less stud to get past.
Week 17 DFS Sunday Main Slate
It’s expected, but the players are dropping like flies ahead of Week 17’s Sunday Main Slate. 16 of 32 quarterbacks playing are back-ups with the news that Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) was ruled out Friday.
Let’s focus on who is playing. Below is the final DFS Main Slate breakdown for me this season. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Week 17 Quarterbacks To Target
Jalen Hurts (vs ARI), Brock Purdy (@ WAS), and Justin Fields (vs ATL)
Purdy was the only one of this trio to not score 25-plus DK points in Week 16, but it is no secret he is in a smash spot with an offense looking to make up for the points they did not score against Baltimore.
Week 17 Quarterbacks To Consider
Matthew Stafford (@ NYG), Lamar Jackson (vs MIA), and Mason Rudolph (@ SEA)
The Seahawks appear to be getting CB Devon Witherspoon (hip) back, but that doesn’t deter me from paying down for Rudolph. Rudolph is no worse than Kenny Pickett, and he has zero issues airing out the ball, as we saw in Week 16.
Week 17 Running Backs To Target
Christian McCaffrey (@ WAS), Zamir White (@ IND), and D’Andre Swift (vs ARI)
It’s been difficult watching Swift for a while now, but the Eagles offensive line is facing the 32nd-ranked Cardinals defensive line, according to Establish The Run. Swift needs a get-right game ahead of what could be a treacherous playoff run for the Eagles.
Week 17 Running Backs To Consider
Jonathan Taylor (vs LV), Kyren Williams (@ NYG), and Travis Etienne, Jr. (vs CAR)
Etienne is in a great spot to be the checkdown king, with C.J. Beathard starting for the Jaguars.
Week 17 Wide Receivers To Target
Rashid Shaheed (@ TB), Deebo Samuel (@ WAS), and DeAndre Hopkins (@ HOU)
There are a few field-stretchers like Shaheed, and he gets a Bucs defense that allows the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wideouts. The weather looks great in Tampa for this game, too.
Week 17 Wide Receivers To Consider
Wan’Dale Robinson (vs LAR), Rashee Rice (vs CIN), and Demario Douglas (@ BUF)
Douglas has at least five receptions in five of his past six games played. The fact that he has done this with two bad QBs and little offensive talent around him is impressive. The rookie has been a shining star for one of the worst teams in football.
Week 17 Tight Ends To Target
Travis Kelce (vs CIN), Gerald Everett (@ DEN), and Trey McBride (@ PHI)
The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen (heel) and Josh Palmer (concussion), leaving Everett as the best pass catcher for Easton Stick. The Broncos allow the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Week 17 Tight Ends To Consider
Dallas Goedert (vs ARI), George Kittle (@ WAS), and Cade Otton (vs NO)
Otton flopped in Week 16, but another top-five matchup and Baker Mayfield on a heater makes the low aDOT tight end a great play that is getting overlooked.
Week 17 DST To Target
Broncos (vs LAC), Panthers (@ JAC), and Ravens (vs MIA)
The Ravens defensive line has the fourth-best matchup, according to ETR, and the talent extends to the linebackers and secondary. Losing Jaylen Waddle hurts the Dolphins, while the two-headed backfield has needed maintenance daily between games.
Week 17 DST To Consider
Texans (vs TEN), Eagles (vs ARI), and 49ers (@ WAS)
Few teams look as sad taking the field as the Commanders. Their switch to Jacoby Brissett at QB may be thwarted by a hamstring injury Friday. That means every defense’s favorite player, Sam Howell, could be back in play.
Favorite Week 17 Dart Throws
QB: Jarrett Stidham (vs LAC)
RB: Jaleel McLaughlin (vs LAC)
WR: Equanimeous St. Brown (vs ATL)
TE: Tommy Tremble (@ JAC)
DST: Bengals (@ KC)
Week 17 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Packers @ Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -1
- Total: 43.5 Points
The Packers injury report is littered with starters. CB Eric Stokes (hamstring) is out. WR Christian Watson (hamstring, $7,000 on DraftKings) RB Emanuel Wilson (shoulder, $1,000), and TE Luke Musgrave (kidney, $3,000) are doubtful. Four other starters are questionable/doubtful, and WR Dontayvion Wicks (chest/ankle, $5,600) is also questionable.
CB Byron Murphy (knee) leads the list of four Vikings out. Jordan Addison (ankle, $7,800) is questionable.
Jaren Hall ($8,400) is starting for the Vikings in a must-win game. The rookie lasted less than one half of a game in his first start this season in Atlanta due to a concussion, but he had a promising start - 78 passing yards on 6 attempts, and 11 yards rushing on 2 rushes. Green Bay’s defense ($3,600) allows the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing QBs.
The Packers are also friends to opposing wideouts and tight ends. Justin Jefferson ($12,000) will see plenty of Jaire Alexander, but a back injury has sapped a lot of the elite talent we’re used to seeing from the cornerback. K.J. Osborn ($6,400) finally gave DFS players fantasy production Week 16 after out-snapping Addison for majority of this season. His rostership will be tied to Addison’s availability.
Ty Chandler‘s ($8,200) explosiveness needs to be displayed against the injured Packers D. I say explosiveness because whatever burst he has is more than Alexander Mattison ($4,400).
Green Bay has a tough task against one of the better run defenses in the league. The run game needs vintage Aaron Jones ($9,800) and A.J. Dillon ($5,400) to keep the offense balanced, because the injuries to the WR and TE rooms are still looming large.
The good news for the Pack is Jaylen Reed ($7,400) returns will no injury designation. The rookie has established a strong connection with Jordan Love ($11,000). Packers wideouts are the only position with a decent matchup according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, aFPA.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Justin Jefferson with Jaren Hall and Aaron Jones
The easiest pairing to use as a stack is the Minnesota passing game. The concern is whether Hall can help Jefferson get there, of if Hall is needed at all.
Captain Ty Chandler with Vikings DST and Jayden Reed
Vikes head coach Kevin O’Connell wants Chandler to be the guy, so he’s going to give him the reps to show he is. I expect Reed to be peppered with targets as the top WR for GB.
Captain Jayden Reed with Jordan Love and K.J. Osborn
Cheap production is the aim with this stack, as it allows for Hall plus another priced up player to be used without needed to pay down for the last man in.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Samori Toure ($1,600)
The pay down options aren’t there, so Toure gets the nod as the cheapest option. He only saw two targets Week 16, but if Wicks is out along with Watson, the second-year WR will have to contribute.
WR Bo Melton ($2,400)
The other sophomore Packers receiver had a breakout last week. If Wicks is active, it would not be surprising to see Toure inactive for Melton after his 4/44/0 on 6 targets.
TE Johnny Mundt ($2,800)
The loss of T.J. Hockenson for the season means Mundt is the de facto TE2. The blocking TE did turn his only target last week into 23 yards and has a susceptible defense to the position in front of him.
*Sunday Night Captains
Justin Jefferson ($18,000)
Easiest CPT choice because of talent and matchup. There’s plenty of good builds with J-Jeff atop your builds.
Romeo Doubs ($13,500)
Pay up to be contrarian with Doubs, who has one fewer red zone target than Reed. An 11.6-yard aDOT is tantalizing.
Ty Chandler ($12,300)
There would be zero shock if the Vikings aim to limit Hall’s pass attempts with the running game. Chandler has 91% of rushing attempts and 75% of targets in the backfield the past two games.
Aaron Jones ($14,700)
Jones looked his best last week after sustaining his hamstring injury Week 1. That juice could lead to a handful of catches and an opportunity to score rushing and receiving TDs.
