Week 17 was a huge week for parlay betting, as I was able to hit my longshot underdog parlay with the Arizona Cardinals defeating the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals beating the Kansas City Chiefs.
After a break in Week 18, let’s dive in to find my favorite parlay bets for Wild Card week in the NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Monday, January 10.
Best NFL Parlay Wild Card
NFL Wild Card Top Parlay Picks
Wager: 2 Units To Win 8.94 Units (+447) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Under 49.5 Total Points (-110)
- Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-200) vs. New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers +12.5 Point Spread (-110) at Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders/Cincinnati Bengals Under 49.5 Total Points (-110)
When these two teams met in Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals won handily by a score of 32-13. The Bengals dominated the time of possession by a count of 37:20 to 22:40. This was because the team was able to find success on the ground with running back Joe Mixon, who rushed 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns.
I expect the Bengals to go with a similar approach at home in this Wild Card matchup. I know that Joe Burrow and the passing game have been on fire recently, but look for head coach Zac Taylor to emphasize more balance in this one.
Using a more run-heavy approach will bode well for the Under. I don’t expect this game to turn into a shootout.
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Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-200) vs. New England Patriots
The Buffalo Bills are 4.5-point home favorites in their third matchup with the division rival New England Patriots. While I’m confident that the Bills win this game, I don’t feel comfortable laying this many points against head coach Bill Belichick.
The Bills defense should be able to make life difficult on rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but running back Damien Harris has dominated this team, rushing for 214 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries in their two meetings.
If the Patriots can continue to find success on the ground, it’ll be tough for the Bills to cover the spread, which is why I’ll roll with the moneyline here.
Pittsburgh Steelers +12.5 Point Spread (-110) at Kansas City Chiefs
When these two teams met in Week 16 at Arrowhead, the Kansas City Chiefs dominated in a 36-10 win. I expect a different result this time around. For one, this is a well-coached Pittsburgh Steelers team with a defense that has given up fewer than 15 points in three of their last four games.
Secondly, this is likely to be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger‘s last game. I expect the team to put forth a solid effort in this rematch. It’s tough to cover 12.5 points in the playoffs, especially with a Chiefs offense that hasn’t been as dominant as years past.
Look for the Steelers to cover the spread and give the Chiefs a bit of a scare in this one.
NFL Wild Card Longshot Parlay Prediction
Wager: 2 Units To Win 10.96 Units (+548) at Caesars Sportsbook
- San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (+140) at Dallas Cowboys
- Arizona Cardinals Moneyline (+170) at Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (+140) at Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have taken advantage of an easy schedule to close out their season, winning five of their last six against teams like the Eagles, Giants, Washington (twice), and Saints. The Cowboys have gone 1-4 against non-NFC East playoff teams this season.
They take on a San Francisco 49ers team that can be really tough to beat, especially when their running game is rolling. The 49ers are fully healthy on offense with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel playing at a high level. San Francisco finished their season on a 7-3 run in their last 10 games.
The Cowboys are only three-point home favorites in this game. I expect it to come down to the wire, which gives us good value on the 49ers to win outright.
Arizona Cardinals Moneyline (+170) at Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams don’t have the look of a formidable opponent right now, especially with the way quarterback Matthew Stafford has been playing of late. Stafford has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games. That’s bad news against an Arizona defense that ranks fifth in pass DVOA.
The Cardinals have beaten the Rams 37-20 and lost to them 30-23 this season, demonstrating the ability to play the Rams tough. Arizona also has the advantage at quarterback with Kyler Murray because of how Stafford is playing right now.
Arizona has a legitimate chance at winning this one outright, so go with the value here.
Same Game Parlay Picks NFL Wild Card
Wager: 2 Units to win 3.94 Units (+197) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 Point Spread & Total Points Under 49
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles 28-22 in their Week 6 matchup, but the game was not as close as the score suggests. Jalen Hurts really struggled in that game, completing 12-of-26 passes for only 115 yards. The Eagles almost came back from a 28-7 deficit that week, but the game was never in doubt.
The Eagles have a terrific running game, but it’s going to be tough to get it going against a Bucs defense that ranks 12th in Rush DVOA. Philly has also taken advantage of a weak schedule, beating Washington (twice), Giants (twice), Saints, and Broncos.
I expect the Bucs to win by double digits because Philly does not have the firepower to keep pace with Tom Brady and this passing game, even with Chris Godwin sidelined and Antonio Brown released.
Roll with the Bucs and the Under.
Frank Ammirante’s 2021 NFL Parlay Betting Record: 9-45, +13.77 Units
Thanks for reading our NFL Wild Card Parlays Picks & Predictions! For more NFL Wild Card betting tips, check out our NFL bet of the day.
