We missed another winning week by half a point. Sometimes, oftentimes, that’s all it takes.
After a dominating 7-1 Week 16, we finished Week 17 at 4-4. I was all over Dallas and Arizona being a low-scoring slugfest. I whiffed on Indianapolis vs. Las Vegas. And I split on everything else.
It has been an eternity since I posted a losing week, and I don’t expect to start just as the regular season is winding down.
Still, the last week of the regular season presents plenty of challenges. Playoff teams will rest players. Motivation will certainly be a factor. New variables in a variable-heavy year will appear.
But I am ready for it.
No, we are ready for it.
Here are my best NFL Week 18 prop bets as we march toward the playoffs. Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 3 PM EST on Wednesday, January 5.
NFL Week 18 Best Prop Bets
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
As it turns out, the Cardinals can play a little defense. Sure, having Kyler Murray is a wonderful luxury, but as we saw against the Cowboys on Sunday, Arizona is far more than its QB and offensive-minded head coach.
That win was much needed entering the home stretch, and with Arizona’s seeding still up in the air, a win over Seattle certainly wouldn’t hurt. There’s still a possibility to win the NFC West, and I think we’ll see their best effort as such.
Seattle, meanwhile, just posted a 50-burger against the Lions. It was Detroit, although QB Russell Wilson and RB Rashaad Penny both posted huge games.
Will this be Wilson’s final game in Seattle? And will it impact this result whatsoever?
Probably.
And, no.
Over 9.5 First Quarter Points (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Cardinals’ defense was great, although I expect Seattle, which has been better offensively, to put forth a better effort. This will be a much different game than what we saw from Arizona on Sunday.
Cardinals Over 27.5 Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Give the Cowboys credit. While the offense struggled, that excellent defense showed up. Seattle doesn’t have that same luxury. The Murray show will be back fully operational.
Best NFL Week 18 Prop Bets to Make
Check out the best NFL player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool, including projections to help you make the best decisions.
Click “Place Bet" to unlock the associated sportsbook’s welcome offer and place your best NFL player props.
Learn more about NFL prop bets and the best sportsbooks for prop betting.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
After all that, we’re back where we started. The Bills are in a position to win the AFC East with a win over the Jets, and the oddsmakers like their chances. Buffalo is more than a two-touchdown favorite against the Jets in the season finale per our NFL gameday odds.
Now, New York has played much better in recent weeks. While Tom Brady did Tom Brady things last week in the final moments for Tampa Bay, the Jets have been playing much better.
Zach Wilson has quietly improved, and the defense, which has had some blowups, has also been better of late.
But the urgency for the Bills is likely to be high, and playing at home in some potential ugly weather—something to keep an eye on—should also work in Buffalo’s favor.
Low-scoring.
Ugly.
Yes, it’s likely going to be that kind of game.
Bills -4.5 First Quarter Spread (-105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Bills won this first game 45-17 on the road. I don’t expect this outcome to be that bad - especially if there is bad weather - but Buffalo gets it cookin’ early.
Under 21 First Half Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Here’s a perfectly reasonable first-half score I envision: Bills 13, Jets 3. Buffalo is likely to dominate, although it will do so somewhat differently.
The Week 18 AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets figures to be a low-scoring game with lots of defensive highlights. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
After losing its best player, we thought the Titans’ season was over. But even without star running back Derrick Henry, who was just cleared to return, Tennessee is in a position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
A win over the Texans, and that’s precisely what will happen. With a bye at stake and Henry cleared to return, the urgency is enormous.
The Texans had won two games in a row - including one over the Chargers - before falling last week to San Francisco while scoring only seven points. Rookie QB Davis Mills has been a pleasant surprise, and he’s easily outperformed all reasonable expectations.
The point spread in this matchup is double digits. That being said, the Texans have shown some heart, and I believe they’ll show a bit more of it in the finale - enough to dive headfirst into a couple of different prop bets.
Texans +6.5 First Half Spread (-105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
For at least a little while, the No. 1 seed will feel up for grabs. The Texans will do just enough offensively early on to keep this within a touchdown.
Texans Over 15.5 Points (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Last week, the Texans could muster only seven points. Playing at home, I expect a higher output. Look for the offense to have just enough success to hit this mark.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
There’s a possibility that a tie between these two teams would give both access to the NFL postseason. While I am an architect of chaos, it is unlikely that this scenario transpires. It begins with the Colts losing to the Jaguars.
With the line north of two touchdowns, I’m not holding my breath. Instead, the winner of the final Sunday Night Football game of the year is likely in the playoffs.
What perhaps didn’t feel like a compelling game a month ago suddenly is. The Raiders have won three games in a row. The latest, a 23-20 victory over the Colts, was far and away the most compelling.
QB Derek Carr turned the ball over twice, although he largely played well. And the Raiders’ defense was able to keep the ball out of Jonathan Taylor’s hands enough.
The focus will now turn to slowing down Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert, which will not be easy. And yet, I expect Las Vegas to be up for it at home.
Raiders Score First (+105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I really like the value here. Again, we’ll assume that the Chargers will score first given the QB. But the Raiders have started faster in recent weeks, and they will again in Week 18.
Under 9.5 First Quarter Points (+105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
While the Raiders have gotten off to good starts, their games have been meatgrinders of sorts. This will be another one.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 18 Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 18 Parlays.
