Chiefs vs Broncos Predictions Week 18 | NFL Pick of the Day

This week’s AFC West battle features one team battling for playoff seeding and another with nothing to play for.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) head to Colorado to take on the Denver Broncos (7-9) in a game that really only means something for the Chiefs.

After a slow start to the season, the Chiefs have gotten their groove back and are in position to finish as a top-two seed in the AFC.

For Kansas City, the task is simple. With a win, the Chiefs will fall no lower than the No. 2 seed and could still take the AFC’s top spot if the Texans upset the Titans on Sunday. With a loss, they could fall as low as No. 4.

While it’s tough to predict what will happen leading up to this afternoon kickoff on Saturday, we’ll at least know that the Chiefs have something to play for in Denver.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 7.

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction

There are a few scenarios at play heading into this game. If the Titans win against the Texans, they’ll be the AFC’s top seed, regardless of what Kansas City does here.

This scenario is the most likely, but the Titans have already lost to the Texans once this year, and it’s the NFL, so we’ve got the “any given Sunday” factor at play as well.

The Chiefs are coming off a tough last-second loss to the Bengals last week, but have been playing great football over the last two months. They’d won eight-straight heading into that loss and are arguably the most dangerous team in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are all healthy, and that’s bad news for Denver (and the rest of the league).


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The Broncos, however, are backing into the offseason having lost their last three games.

They’ve had to rely upon Drew Lock at quarterback and haven’t scored more than 13 points in any of their last three games. They’re also dealing with a robust reserve/COVID list, so there’s quite a bit of roster uncertainty for the Broncos as well.

While we won’t know exactly which seed Kansas City earns until Sunday, we at least know they’re well-positioned to improve their record to 12-5.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 12

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce was mostly held in check when he last met the Denver Broncos. Will they be able to contain him in Week 18? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Chiefs vs Broncos Best Bets

Best Bet: Chiefs -11 (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

The Broncos are at home, but that’s about all they have going for them this week. They’re playing with a backup (lame duck) quarterback who probably won’t be an NFL starter next year, they’re dealing with a myriad of players either still on or just coming off the COVID list, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, can still give themselves a shot at a first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win, and could drop in the AFC playoff standings with a loss. Simply put, the Chiefs still have a lot to play for.

Whether or not all of that will translate to a 11-plus point win is an open question (and one that makes me drop my confidence a bit), but all of those factors combine together to make me think the Chiefs will win this one and win it big.

spread

-110

Chiefs Cover -11 Spread @ Broncos

KC @ DEN | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Best Bet: Chiefs Moneyline (-550) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

There honestly isn’t a whole lot of value to be had on this bet, but I also don’t see a way in which the Chiefs lose this game. They’re the superior team, they have a lot more to play for, and the Broncos are still rolling out Lock at quarterback. The only thing really going against the Chiefs is that they’re on the road.

With all that’s at stake for the Chiefs (along with their superior roster), I don’t see any way they lose this game. The only question is how much they win by.

moneyline

-550

Chiefs Defeat Broncos

KC @ DEN | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $24

Best Bet: Under 45 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

The Chiefs come in fourth in the NFL at 28.3 points scored per game, while the Broncos are in the bottom-10 at 19.4 points per game. The Chiefs haven’t scored less than 31 points in any of their last three games, while the Broncos haven’t topped 13 during that timespan.

On the flip side of the ball, Denver’s defense has allowed the third-fewest points per game at 18.4, while the Chiefs rank in the middle of the league at 21.3 points allowed per game.

I don’t think the Broncos will be able to do much on offense, so the Chiefs would have to carry any potential Over here. While I think the Chiefs could easily score 30, I have a tough time seeing how the Broncos will eclipse 10-13 points, so I’m going to lock in the Under.

over-under

-110

Chiefs @ Broncos: UNDER 45 Points

KC @ DEN | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Team Vs Team Betting Record: 23-10, +15 Units

Thanks for reading our Broncos vs Chiefs Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL bet of the day.

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NFL Betting News

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    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

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  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

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