Jets vs Bills Predictions Week 18 | NFL Pick of the Day
The NFL regular season comes to an end this weekend. It’s been quite the ride and I’ve enjoyed this extended chance to write about football. Thanks to everyone who read along! I hope you’ve been able to use my analysis to put together a solid betting season.
This week I’ll be taking a look at a matchup between the playoff-bound Buffalo Bills and the cellar-dwelling New York Jets. Buffalo clinched their third consecutive playoff berth last week and can earn a second straight division title with a win against the Jets.
New York, on the other hand, is last in the AFC East and has zero incentive to win this game. In fact, they should probably try to lose since they’re tied with two other teams for the third-worst record in football. At this point, they should be playing for draft position.
Let’s just hope whoever they end up drafting has a better debut season than Zach Wilson.
Please note that all NFL Week 18 odds and lines are current as of 2:00 pm EST on Friday, January 7.
Jets vs Bills Prediction Week 18
Forecasts for Sunday’s game in Buffalo call for temperatures just above freezing with chances of precipitation and a strong breeze throughout. Gross.
Far from ideal passing weather, the Bills may opt to lean on Devin Singletary once again. Normally a pass-heavy team under Josh Allen, the Bills have leaned on Singletary more frequently as of late, giving him 19 carries per game over the past three weeks.
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Allen hasn’t put up the MVP-type numbers we saw last season, but the Bills are still good enough to win even when he’s not at his best. Their elite defense is allowing just 17.4 points per game, which is 2nd-fewest in the league.
It’s also worth remembering that Allen torched the Jets back in Week 10 for a season-high 366 passing yards on just 28 pass attempts, leading Buffalo to a 45-17 blowout. He should have little trouble carving up a unit that’s allowed the most points and yards in the NFL.
The Jets have just one road victory all year, and that was against the lowly Houston Texans back in Week 12. The Bills are the superior team in all facets and should win easily at home.
Prediction: Bills 28, Jets 7
Jets vs Bills Best Bets
Best Bet: Bills -16 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This game has a hefty spread on our NFL gameday odds, but I think it’s justified.
The Bills are well-equipped to play in harsh conditions, as displayed last week when they put up 29 points in the snow against the Atlanta Falcons. Allen is an elite rushing quarterback and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley work well underneath, so their quick routes are practically extensions of the running game.
Buffalo remains one of the healthier teams in the league heading into the final week of the season. The loss of top corner Tre’Davious White is a blow to their defense, but there’s still enough depth and playmakers there to hold New York’s meek offense in check.
The Jets nearly upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week and have had a few good performances here and there, but they’re 0-5 against their division and still look years away from competing. Wilson has more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (8), while injuries to Michael Carter and Elijah Moore have made this team near-unwatchable.
The Bills have one of the best offenses and defenses in the NFL, while the Jets rank among the worst at both. This game won’t be close, which is why I’m betting the spread up to -18.5 for Buffalo.
Bills Cover -16 Spread vs Jets
NYJ @ BUF | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $38
Best Bet: Under 41.5 Total Points (-135) at Caesars
Wager: 1.75 Units
I liked this line a lot more earlier in the week when the total was at 43.5 and I told you it was likely to move even lower depending on how the weather forecast developed throughout the week.
Look for Sean McDermott to pull his starters once the game is in hand to protect against injury, which will prevent Buffalo from running up the score. I also expect them to go run-heavy given the conditions, which should prevent them from threatening 30 points.
As for the Jets, they’re going to have trouble putting up points against one of the league’s stingiest defenses in harsh conditions. While their offense has played better of late with at least 24 points in three straight games, Wilson has limited weapons to work with so that streak should come to an end here.
This is shaping up to be an ugly, low-scoring game. Bet the Under down to 41 for our NFL bet of the day.
Jets @ Bills: UNDER 41.5 Total Points
NYJ @ BUF | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $35