For weeks I’ve been saying that a monster weekend was coming. And this past weekend, amid football across multiple days and rosters that are constantly being tweaked, it appeared.
In Week 16, prop bets went 7-1. The only bet I lost was that the Houston Texans would score first against the Los Angeles Chargers.
That’s it.
Other than that, it was perfection. After a slew of 5-3 results this year, 7-1 feels exceptionally good.
Now, as we embark on Week 17, we must try to do it again.
With playoff races heating up, division races winding down, and rosters a bit of a mess when it comes to availability, there are plenty of variables to manage. And manage we shall.
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NFL Week 17 Best Prop Bets
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Despite dealing with a decimated offensive line, the Colts were able to do enough to beat the Cardinals in Arizona. It wasn’t pretty, and Jonathan Taylor was largely held in check after a long run out of the gate.
But the Indianapolis defense held tough, and the offense did just enough to take down Kyler Murray and co. in a huge game.
The Raiders also won another close game, which has become the norm in recent weeks. And while they are very much in the playoff discussion, they will have to score more than 20 points for that to continue.
Running back Josh Jacobs was exceptional for Las Vegas, and he’ll likely need to be again for the streak to continue. With the Colts’ defense playing as well as it has, it won’t be easy.
Colts -2.5 First Quarter (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Raiders are playing with fire. After scoring 16 points and 17 points the past two games, the Colts are poised to take it to them early. Indy jumps out to a lead.
Raiders Under 18.5 Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
As I said above, Las Vegas’ scoring output is likely to be an issue on various fronts. Unless Jacobs runs wild, it will likely be another tough offensive day.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Did you start Joe Burrow in your fantasy playoff game last week? If so, congratulations on the victory. Cincinnati’s starting QB threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns against Baltimore. He was essentially playing Madden on the easiest of difficulties.
This week, however, duplicating that effort will be a challenge. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed 10 points or less in four of the last five games. During that stretch, Patrick Mahomes has regained his MVP form. And the Chiefs have now won eight games in a row.
While many assume two great quarterbacks will go blow for blow, I’m not so sure. There will still be points, per our NFL gameday odds, although this game might not have the same fireworks many assume it will.
Chiefs -1 First Quarter (+100) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Bengals’ offensive output was impressive last week, but the Chiefs feel very much up for it, even on the road.
Under 10 First Quarter Points (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
To build on some first-quarter action, I don’t expect a deluge of points out of the gate. Kansas City will win a tough, low-scoring quarter that will set the tone for the rest of the game.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have the potential to be the best team in the NFL. I don’t say that recklessly. Well, at the very least, it wasn’t in the intent.
But all of the ingredients to win a Super Bowl are in place, and they were all on display on Sunday night against Washington. Dak Prescott was superb on offense, spreading the ball around to his deep catalog of weapons.
And the defense, led by rookie standout Micah Parsons, was great at all levels.
All of this is bad news for Arizona, which limps into this game after losing to the Colts. Kyler Murray was by no means bad, but the loss of wideout DeAndre Hopkins has really impacted this offense.
While I am normally in favor of pushing for points and touchdowns and activity, the theme this week is just different.
Under 26 First Half Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s easy to be wooed by the quarterbacks and the skill position talent in this game, but these two defenses can really play. I expect a lower scoring first half than expected.
Cowboys Under 28.5 Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
It won’t come nearly as easy next week as it did against Washington. That should go without saying. Nevertheless, Dallas will still win, although it does so with a solid serving of defense.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
The last team to beat the Packers was indeed the Vikings. It came before Thanksgiving, and it took place in Minnesota.
To say things have transpired since then would be an understatement.
Green Bay hasn’t lost since, and Aaron Rodgers has emerged as the MVP favorite with his play in recent weeks. The Vikings have lost three out of the five games, and even wins over the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers did not come easy.
The availability of running back Dalvin Cook, who missed last week due to COVID protocols, is certainly worth monitoring. But, this still feels like an uphill climb regardless of whether Cook plays or not.
One element to watch this week is the weather. The scheduled temperature high on Sunday is around 12 degrees. On Sunday night, when the game is scheduled to be played, it’s likely going to be a lot colder than that.
Rodgers and the Packers are likely a lot more equipped to handle this environment, having done it for so long. Ah, yes, weather handicapping.
Packers Over 26.5 Points (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The weather won’t slow this offense enough. Rodgers leads Green Bay to another 30-point game and victory. The No. 1 seed is still within reach.
Over 23.5 First Half Points (-105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Packers will do the heavy lifting, but the Vikings should do enough to push for the over in the first half.
