Gambling on the NFL has never been more challenging. Given the uncertainty and volatility surrounding each roster, one must keep their head on a swivel to ensure you know exactly who will be playing and when the games will be taking place.
Around here, there are no excuses. The goal is to be successful betting game props, and that will never change.
Last week, we succeeded in doing so for a while. Then I backed the Buccaneers—and more specifically Tampa Bay’s offense—and, well, things changed. We ultimately finished 4-4.
Regardless, we’re still picking winners at a nice rate. And that is the plan this week as the holidays kick into full force. Here are some prop betting stocking stuffers. (I’m sorry, I couldn’t help myself.)
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NFL Week 16 Best Prop Bets
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Should we celebrate the Raiders’ victory over Cleveland?
Yes.
Should we also be terrified that Las Vegas needed a game-winning field goal to beat a depleted roster after blowing a first-half lead?
Yes.
Still, the Raiders remain in the playoff hunt, and they’ll head home to take on a team that has struggled on offense.
After a scary hit on QB Terry Bridgewater, who left last game with a concussion, Drew Lock is likely to start under center. There is talent there, without question. But the inconsistencies are also a concern.
For the Raiders, offensive inconsistencies are a theme as well. The absence of tight end Darren Waller has not helped, and his availability is something to monitor.
Still, this is a game that will likely take on its assumed script and follow it closely.
Denver +1 First Half (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The Broncos still have a defense that can keep them in any game, and I expect that to be the case early on. Denver wins the first half.
Raiders Under 21.5 Total Points (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I just don’t trust this Las Vegas offense. And I especially don’t trust this offense against a really quality defense.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
On paper, this looks like a sizable mismatch. The point spread would indicate the same, per our NFL gameday odds, despite the fact that this will be played in Houston,
But Texans QB Davis Mills has quietly put together a string of decent games. In the past month, he has certainly looked much improved. Whether he’s a perfect counter for Justin Herbert, who has thrown for more yards in his first two seasons than any QB ever, is a different conversation.
The Chargers were unable to conquer the Chiefs at home last week, although they did play plenty competitively. With COVID issues hitting that team at key positions, the roster changes are certainly worth monitoring.
Los Angeles will still score points, but so will the Texans. The theme here is touchdowns, which is a wonderful scenario to have and root for.
Over 23.5 First Half Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Houston will at least have a few counter punches lined up. That will be the theme. While the game will likely get out of hand late, the Texans do their part early.
Houston First to Score (+150) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
The value here is pretty solid. At +150, I’m willing to take a crack at Houston winning the coin toss and taking the ball down field on its opening drive.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Three.
That’s the number of passes New England quarterback Mac Jones threw against Buffalo in the Patriots’ 14-10 victory a few weeks ago.
The wind, of course, was the star of that game. But the fact that Bill Belichick managed to win that kind of game with that strategy speaks volumes.
When asked to throw more this past week, Jones threw a few passes to the other team. New England was unable to fully mount the comeback against the Colts, although the Pats did fight back in the fourth quarter.
The Bills got right against the Panthers after back-to-back losses, which doesn’t tell us much. We saw a much bigger workload for running back Devin Singletary in that game. Given how little the Bills have run the ball this season, this is worth watching.
Ultimately, Josh Allen will still be asked to do his thing. But can he?
Buffalo +1 First Half (-120) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I got burned by Buffalo the last time these two teams played, and the scars still feel fresh. But I expect Buffalo to be much more prime for this in better conditions.
Buffalo Over 20.5 Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
In Allen I trust. The game will feature more points than expected on both sides, and the Bills do plenty of the heavy lifting.
The Saints defeated the Buccaneers in Week 15 despite just getting 9 points from Taysom Hill and the offense. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints
I’m not going to lie to you. This week’s Monday Night Football game might be grotesque. And for the second week in a row, we’re seeing the Saints in a primetime game. Here’s hoping this week goes better than last.
Now, if you love defense, please disregard that previous sentence. If you’re into scoreboards with little activity and an aggressive amount of punting, this is absolutely the football game you should be watching. And you will be watching no matter what, because it’s Monday night after all.
The Saints just absolutely dominated Tom Brady (again). That New Orleans defense put forth one of the best efforts we’ve seen from a unit all year, and I am curious to see how it carries over.
On the other side, the Dolphins struggled at times with the Jets. And although New York was pesky, Miami still overcame two Tua Tagovailoa interceptions—including a pick six—to win.
With a total at 39, the oddsmakers envision this being a low-scoring, low-activity game. While I would love to tell you otherwise, it’s hard to disagree with them.
Under 19.5 First Half Points (-105) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I don’t trust Taysom Hill. I don’t trust Miami’s offense. All of these things translate to a low-scoring first 30 minutes.
Under 4 Touchdowns Scored (-125) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Let’s double down on a lack of points. This feels like a football game that will be largely played between the 20-yard lines.
