Saints vs Jets Predictions Week 14 | NFL Pick of the Day
Although it is likely to be overlooked, Week 14 of the NFL season features an interesting matchup between the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets.
The Saints made the switch to Taysom Hill at quarterback for a Week 13 Thursday night battle against the Cowboys, and although the versatile signal-caller had his moments, New Orleans still came out on the losing end.
The Jets, on the other hand, continued to show some signs of improvement in their Week 13 contest, a 33-18 loss to the Eagles. New York did a good job hanging tough in the first half.
Let’s dive deeper into this pairing and highlight our best bets and predictions for this interconference matchup.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday, December 10.
Saints vs Jets Prediction
This section is being written under the assumption the Saints will have Alvin Kamara back at their disposal. The idea of a Week 14 return is supported by the fact the star back was able to practice in limited fashion leading up to the contest against the Cowboys.
Kamara should be nothing if not refreshed after having last played on November 7. A Kamara-led ground attack, supplemented by the threat and production of Hill is the key to success for New Orleans.
The Jets continued to struggle to defend the run against the Eagles, despite the availability of tackling machines C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams. Philadelphia lit up New York for 185 rushing yards at 4.5 yards per carry. The Jets have given up the third-most rushing yards per contest (133.4/game) on the season.
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The matchup isn’t bad for Hill through the air, either, since New York is also surrendering the fourth-most passing yards per contest at 263.4 yards per game.
On the other side, the going could be much tougher for Zach Wilson. While the Saints secondary has played downright poorly at times this season, this is still a savvy veteran defensive unit that’s picked off 14 passes and collected 26 sacks through 12 games.
Wilson is still going through plenty of growing pains with respect to ball security (11 interceptions), and New York’s offensive line has allowed its quarterbacks to be taken down 33 times, ranking them in the bottom half of the league.
New Orleans also forces teams to be one-dimensional due to what is typically an elite run defense. The Saints are giving up just 96.4 rushing yards per contest and allowing an NFL-low 3.4 RB yards per carry.
New York already struggles to run the ball — the O-line is facilitating just 3.96 RB yards per carry and the Jets are averaging the third-fewest rushing yards per game — so it would appear highly unlikely Wilson has much luck trying to run a balanced attack.
I like the Saints to eventually notch a double-digit win here.
Prediction: Saints 27, Jets 14
Saints vs Jets Best Bets
Best Bet: Saints -5.5 (-110) at FOX Bet
Saints To Cover -5.5 Spread vs Jets (NO @ NYJ, NFL Week 14)
NO @ NYJ | 12/12, 1:00 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $38
As detailed earlier, I see the Saints eventually wearing down the Jets in what should be a relatively low-scoring matchup, with what I assume will be a healthy Kamara playing a significant role.
From a statistical trend perspective, it’s worth noting New Orleans is 3-3 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 against the number in interconference games. In turn, New York is 2-4 and 0-3 ATS in those respective splits.
Zooming further out, the Saints are 34-29-1 (54 percent) against the spread versus AFC opponents since Sean Payton‘s arrival in 2006.
With the Saints still on the outer fringes of the NFC playoff picture at 5-7, I like New Orleans to prevail in our NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Saints 1H Over 12.5 Total Points (-118) at TwinSpires
Saints First-Half Total Over 12.5 Points (NO @ NYJ, NFL Week 14)
NO @ NYJ | 12/12, 1:00 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $37
The Jets have been a poor defensive team in general, surrendering an NFL-high 367 points on the season. A good chunk of their troubles have come early in games, with New York tied with the Lions for second-most first-half points per home game allowed (14.5).
One needs to look no further than the Week 13 loss to the Eagles to find evidence of their tendency to allow visitors to get off to fast starts. Philly racked up 24 first-half points while playing with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
While the Saints haven’t exactly been a prolific first-half offense, they’ve actually performed much better in that regard on the road. New Orleans’ average of 10.6 points per first half on the road is a significant leap from the 6.0 points per first half it averages at home.
Hill should have worked off a lot of rust against Dallas, and assuming he has Kamara back in the fold, I like New Orleans to have a solid offensive first half in this spot.