While both the Giants and Dolphins are NFL basement dwellers, both franchises are trending up.
The Giants just beat Philadelphia and moved a little closer to playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have won four straight following a disastrous 1-7 start.
As a result of Miami’s resurgence, the Dolphins are laying the points at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon. But does Tua Tagovailoa have the firepower to keep the winning streak alive?
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, December 3.
Giants vs Dolphins Prediction
Analyzing this game, we should expect one thing: Defense.
The Giants and the Dolphins both boast awful offenses with mediocre quarterbacks. Although Tagovailoa has completed a high percentage of his passes during the win streak, he’s also posted a 2:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and less than seven yards per attempt.
On the other side of the ball, Giants starter Daniel Jones has had to deal with a rotating cast of pass-catchers this season due to various injuries. This week, it’s Jones that has popped up on the injury report with a neck injury, leaving veteran Mike Glennon to start in his stead.
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Both the Giants and the Dolphins rank among the bottom five NFL teams in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA. However, both teams also rank among the top 15 in Defensive DVOA.
The Dolphins defense has seen an enormous resurgence during the past month, especially in the havoc and turnover departments.
All-in-all, these are two offenses that won’t match up well with their opposing defenses — despite how mediocre both defenses are. Both the Giants and Dolphins are scoring less than 19 points per game.
Therefore, I’m expecting a low-scoring, tight affair in this matchup. I’m not sure which team will win, but the defenses will keep it very close.
Prediction: Dolphins 16, Giants 14
Giants vs Dolphins Best Bets
Best Bet: Giants +6 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This line initially opened with the Dolphins as four-point favorites, but has since ballooned to nearly a touchdown with Jones ruled out. However, given how Jones has performed so far this season, it’s probably not that much of a drop off from him to Glennon.
Also, the Giants are covering machines outside of New Jersey. As head coach of the Giants, Joe Judge is 9-3 against the spread as a road underdog.
Moreover, the dogs have been barking this NFL season. Road underdogs are a ridiculous 64-40-1 against the spread this year, good for an 18.6% ROI.
Best Bet: Under 39.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
As mentioned, this is a battle between two decent defenses and two atrocious offenses.
Tagovailoa cannot push the ball down the field, and the Dolphins offense has suffered because of it. They do well getting the ball into Jaylen Waddle‘s hands, but that makes the offense one-dimensional. That becomes more true when you consider the Dolphins are third-to-last in rush EPA per play.
Although I believe in Mike Glennon to cover the number, he’s going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. The Dolphins defense produces pressure at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (27%).
I don’t see how either team scores. I expect this game to be played in the low 30s, so feel comfortable in making this your NFL bet of the day.
Tanner McGrath’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 13-15, -2.00 Units
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