The ACC Championship has been decided and will include two nationally-ranked teams—the No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers and No. 18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
This game will give Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett yet another opportunity to improve not only his Heisman odds but also his NFL Draft stock. The potential first-round pick has tallied 40 passing touchdowns this season and over 4,000 yards.
On the other side, the Demon Deacons have also gotten more than solid quarterback play from Sam Hartman, who has tossed 34 touchdowns and has over 3,700 yards.
Needless to say, this is going to be an offensive battle, as evidenced by the totals on the market in the 70s.
This should be one of the more entertaining championship games in terms of offense this week, so let’s dive in and figure out how to make some money off of it.
All NCAAF gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. All odds and lines are accurate as of 9 a.m. ET on November 29, 2021. All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest: ACC Championship Game Prediction
There are a lot of similarities between these teams. Both teams perform much better in the passing game, their running games are OK, and their coverage units are far from elite. However, the Panthers have something the Demon Deacons will never have: Kenny Pickett.
The quarterback is, obviously, a huge part of any game. While Hartman has been great this season, Pickett is a bona fide NFL prospect.
Who is going to cover Pickett’s No. 1 wide receiver Jordan Addison? He has 17 touchdowns this season. Wake Forest has a fantastic safety by the name of Traveon Redd, but the corners are atrocious. Their two top cornerbacks in terms of snaps—Ja’Sir Taylor and Zion Keith—have surrendered a combined 10 touchdowns and nearly 900 yards.
Wake Forest should also have an easy time scoring with Hartman’s connection to wide receivers A.T. Perry and Jaquarii Roberson. Both of these receivers have gone over 1,000 yards and have combined for 21 touchdowns.
This is going to be the epitome of a shootout, and in that environment, give me Pickett.
ACC Championship Game Prediction: Pittsburgh 45, Wake Forest 38
ACC Championship Game Best Bets
Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3 (-110) at Caesars
This is going to be a game of touchdowns, touchdowns, and more touchdowns. In such a high-scoring affair, the score will be close, but this doesn’t strike me as a game that will have many field goals. Therefore, the margin of victory should be around a touchdown.
There’s just not a lot happening here on defense for either team and both quarterbacks can throw the football.
As he heads off to the NFL, Pickett will be able to look back fondly on this game, throwing multiple scores and racking up the passing yards.
With a spread of just -3, I’ll take Pickett in an expected high-scoring matchup.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Moneyline (-145) at Caesars
Oftentimes, it’s important to dig a bit deeper to diagnose wagers, but this truly is a matchup of the quarterbacks. Each team has excellent passing attacks. Beyond that, everything else is pretty forgettable, including the rushing attacks. There are some players who may be competent pass rushers and may make a play or two, but there is nothing to fear on either defense.
Wake Forest has a better one-two punch at receiver in terms of stats, but that won’t be enough to overcome what Pickett can do.
Best Bet: Over 72.5 (-110) at Caesars
Any time you see a total in the 70s, it’s going to be nerve-wracking all the way through. The biggest enemy of this total, however, will be the time. Both of these teams will score touchdowns. A lot of them. It’s just a matter of how fast they’re able to accomplish that. In the end, the average plays per drive should allow for more than enough possessions on each side for both teams to approach the 40s.
Also, Pittsburgh covered this number by themselves against my alma mater, New Hampshire, scoring 77 points.
OK, seriously though, there’s nothing on either team defensively that scares me in the slightest.
Get ready for some fireworks and a stuffed stat sheet for Pickett as he goes on to the NFL.
Thanks for reading our ACC Championship Predictions & Best Bets! For more CFB betting tips, check out our CFB Conference Championship Predictions.
