2021 NL Cy Young Futures Bets: Picks & Sleepers For National League’s Top Pitcher Award

2021 NL Cy Young Futures Bets: As is the case with the American League Cy Young Award futures betting market, the National League has a tightly bunched group of true favorites for its Cy Young Award. Odds used for 2021 NL Cy Young Futures are provided courtesy of PointsBet.


Compare these 2021 NL Cy Young Award bet tips with the 2021 AL Cy Young Futures Bet Tips, also written by Josh Shepardson.

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2021 NL Cy Young Award Futures Bets

National League Cy Young Award Odds

  • Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets (+500)
  • Trevor Bauer, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (+700)
  • Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals (+900)
  • Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000)
  • Yu Darvish, SP, San Diego Padres (+1000)
  • Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (+1200)
  • Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres (+1200)
  • Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (+1400)
  • Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds (+1500)
  • Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves (+1800)

The three shortest odds for the NL Cy Young Award belong to the last five winners: Trevor Bauer (2020), Jacob deGrom (2018 and 2019), and Max Scherzer (2016 and 2017 — with a 2013 AL Cy Young Award to boot).

Last year’s runner-up, Yu Darvish, is tied for the fourth-shortest odds. Blake Snell joins Darvish with the San Diego Padres, and he’s only two years removed from winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2018. It’s a loaded group at the top, resulting in a lack of extremely short odds for any of them.


2021 NL Cy Young Award Bet Picks

2021 NL Cy Young: Smart Money Bet

Yu Darvish, SP, San Diego Padres (+1000)

prop bet

+1000

Yu Darvish To Win 2021 NL Cy Young

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Bet $20, Payout $220

Yu Darvish finished second in 2020 NL Cy Young Award voting, sandwiched between Bauer and deGrom. He was a stud, spinning a 2.01 ERA, 3.14 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, 31.3 K%, and 14.3 SwStr% in a dozen starts spanning 76.0 innings.

Last year’s excellence was a follow up to an electric finish to 2019. He’s blown hitters away to the tune of a 2.40 ERA, 2.77 SIERA, 0.88 WHIP, 3.4 BB%, 34.6 K%, and 14.7 SwStr% in his last 25 starts totaling 157.2 innings dating back to the second half of the 2019 season, per FanGraphs.

Darvish’s odds should be in line with deGrom’s and Bauer’s, making him an exceptional value at his odds.

2021 NL Cy Young Futures Bets: Best Picks & Sleepers For National League's Top Pitcher Award include new Padres co-ace Yu Darvish, who was stellar in 2020 with the Cubs.

2021 NL Cy Young Futures Bets: Best Picks & Sleepers For National League’s Top Pitcher Award include new Padres co-ace Yu Darvish, who was stellar in 2020 with the Cubs. (USA TODAY Sports)

Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds (+1500)

moneyline

+1500

Luis Castillo To Win 2021 NL Cy Young

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Bet $20, Payout $320

Luis Castillo blended elite bat-missing ability with superb batted-ball data, turning that foundation into a 3.21 ERA, 3.35 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, 30.5 K%, and 15.4 SwStr%. 

The righty’s SIERA suggests his ERA was fair, but his FIP (2.65) and xFIP (2.82) paint a prettier picture of his work.

He coughed up a .329 BABIP that’s markedly higher than his .267 BABIP before 2020. Castillo was one of the best pitchers at avoiding barrels, ranking sixth among qualified pitchers in barrels per plate appearance percentage (2.7 Brls/PA%), according to Baseball Savant. Castillo was one of the unluckiest pitchers on batted balls, tallying the ninth-highest positive differential (.026) between his actual wOBA (.286) and xwOBA (.260) among pitchers with a minimum of 200 plate appearances against them.

Castillo’s the total package. The fact that he’s facing weak opponents in the sad the National League Central division, home is a plus.

Carlos Carrasco, SP, New York Mets (+4000)

prop bet

+4000

Carlos Carrasco To Win 2021 NL Cy Young

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Bet $20, Payout $820

Carlos Carrasco has been a consistently top-shelf pitcher, and his lone hiccup was in 2019, when he battled cancer. He’s in remission and coming off of a typically stellar season.

The veteran righty had a sizable home and away split, recording a superb 2.68 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 2.93 xFIP in 446.2 innings on the road from 2014 through 2018 and a 2.76 ERA, albeit with a 4.01 FIP and 4.14 xFIP, last year.

Carrasco’s away numbers could foreshadow an award-winning caliber season with the New York Mets. He goes from pitching his home games at the fourth-highest run-scoring park, Progressive Field, to the most run-suppressing ballpark, Citi Field, according to the three-year average used by FantasyPros.

At +4000 odds, I’m willing to throw some dough on Carrasco flourishing in Flushing.

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